未来50年鄱阳湖流域气候变化预估

据 ECHAM5/ MPI OM模式在3种排放情景（SRES高排放A2,中排放A1B,低排放B1）下所做的21世纪前50年气候变化预估试验得到的数据,研究鄱阳湖流域2001~2050年气温和降水相对于目前气候（1961~1990年）的可能变化。结果表明：①未来50年气温在3种排放情景下都将迅速增加,远远高于1990s的增加幅度和速度。A1B情景温度增加最明显,平均气温变化达到162°C。②降水量变化相对复杂,前30年主要为减少趋势,A2情景下减少幅度最大,2020s年均降水量减少了67%;后20年降水量增加,B1情景增加最显著,2030s年增加幅度达到108%。③根据预估的各季节变化结果,1~3月和 4~6月降水量增加;而降水减少主要在7~9月和10~12月,则赣江流域类似于2003~2005年的伏旱、秋旱连冬旱的情况将可能阶段性出现,并在2011~2030年加强。④降水量的空间分异非常明显,东部变化大于西部,南部变化大于北部。⑤如果2001~2050年在A2或A1B情景下,降水序列存在20a的周期振荡;在B1情景下,存在30a的周期振荡。人类排放增加可能弱化振荡强度,并使周期发生变化。     

生态资本与经济增长模型研究

改革开放以来,中国依靠“高投入-高消耗”的发展模式,保持了20多年的经济高速增长。但由于长期忽视生态因素,导致了日益严重的生态破坏。为了建设和谐社会,如何将生态资本引入经济增长模型,并突出其在经济增长中的重要地位已成为当务之急。在综合分析大量文献的基础上,理清了生态资本的概念和特征。选择了合适的经济增长模型,并将生态资本作为内生变量嵌入其中,构建了新的模型。依据新模型,进一步分析了生态资本与经济增长之间的关系,并提出了相关的政策建议。     

人水和谐理念下城市河涌整治的环境社会学思考

导致城市河涌污染和不健康的因素众多,不仅具有生态学的根源,而且还具有社会学的根源。河涌整治已经成为许多城市环境治理的重点。文章依据环境社会学的理论和人水和谐的理念,分析当前河涌整治的模式及优缺点,重点探讨政府、企业、市民、传媒等利益相关者在城市水环境污染与治理中的角色、作用以及相互之间的互动与整合,为城市河涌综合整治建立长效社会机制提供依据。     

生物膜法应用于海河流域湿地生态系统健康评价展望

海河流域是我国人为干扰最为强烈的流域之一,流域内许多湿地的结构功能受损严重,鱼类、底栖生物、大型水生植物缺失,因此鱼类、底栖生物完整性指数(F-IBI,B-IBI)不适用于严重受损的湿地健康评价,在流域尺度上应用具有局限性,而生物膜广泛存在于任何水体中,可以用于流域尺度的湿地健康评价.本文根据生物完整性指数理论,在生物膜基本特征和人为干扰对生物膜的效应机制分析基础上,分析了生物膜评价湿地健康研究进展,探讨了生物膜方法应用于强人为干扰下海河流域湿地生态系统健康评价的可行性和应用前景.并从生物膜整合、尺度转换、健康标准制定、主要影响因子和装置与方法改进5个方面对生物膜法应用于海河流域湿地健康评价进行了展望,以期为海河流域的生态修复和环境管理提供新的思路和方法.     

基于UHBs的输气管道高后果区泄漏燃爆事故分析

为探究输气管道高后果区中人的不安全行为（Unsafe Human Behaviors,UHBs）对输气管道泄漏燃爆事故发生的影响,结合模糊Bow-tie模型和贝叶斯网络对输气管道泄漏燃爆事故进行分析。构建基于T-S模糊故障树的输气管道泄漏燃爆模糊Bow-tie模型,并转化为贝叶斯网络;从人的不安全行为发生的可能性出发,将不同等级高后果区划分为不同等级人口敏感区;利用专家经验评判法得到不同等级人口敏感区基本事件的先验概率和中间事件的条件概率表;运用贝叶斯网络双向推理算法求解模糊Bow-tie模型。结果表明:随着地区人口敏感等级的提高,输气管道泄漏燃爆事故发生的概率随之增大,发现导致输气管道失效泄漏事故发生的最主要原因为施工破坏,失效原因与EGIG分析的结果基本相符,验证该方法在高后果区输气管道泄漏燃爆事故分析上的可行性,可为输气管道高后果区的安全管理提供决策依据。     

基于人误系统复合状态(MSHES)的人误防范理论研究

评析国内外以第一代人因可靠性分析(静态)、第二代人因可靠性分析(动态)为主体形成的人误防范理论和方法;针对目前不能量化人的生理、认知、心理等相关非结构性和非确定性参数和数据的"瓶颈",建立基于人-机-环系统业务流程的人误系统复合状态(Multiplex State ofHumanErrors System,MSHES)结构模型;探求运用粗糙集数据挖掘,对资深专业人员的经验规则信息、人因事故或事件分析的信息,挖掘人因层次结构中的根因与人误层次结构中的差错之间的关联关系,构建基于规则的人误防范专家系统结构模型;探究人的风险性评估和人误防范理论。     

Screening for a new Streptomyces strain capable of e cient keratin degradation

Keratinous wastes could be degraded by some microorganisms in nature. Native human foot skin （NHFS） was used as sole nitrogen source to screen microorganisms with keratin-degrading capability. From approximately 200 strains, a strain of Streptomyces sp. strain No. 16 was found to possess the strongest keratinolytic activity, and the total activity in the culture was 110 KU/ml with specific activity of 2870 KU/mg protein （KU： keratinase unit）. Substrate specificity test indicated that the crude keratinase could degrade keratin azure, human hair, cock feathers and collagen. The optimal pH of the crude keratinase ranged from 7.5 to 10 and the temperature ranged from 40℃ to 55℃. Metal chelating agent ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid obviously stimulated the keratinolytic activity but suppressed the proteolytic activity. To our knowledge, this is the first report on specific induction of keratinases by NHFS from an actinomycete. Moreover, excellent characteristics of its crude keratinase may lead to the potential application in waste treatment and recovery, poultry and leather industry, medicine, and cosmetic development.     

In vitro fluorescence displacement investigation of thyroxine transport disruption by bisphenol A

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a chemical with high production volume and wide applications in many industries. Although BPA is known as an endocrine disruptor, its toxic mechanisms have not been fully characterized. Due to its structural similarity to thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3), one possible mechanism of BPA toxicity is disruption of hormone transport by competitive binding with the transport proteins. In this study, the binding interactions of BPA, T4, and T3 with three thyroid hormone transport proteins, human serum albumin (HSA), transthyretin (TTR), and thyroxine-binding globulin (TBG) were investigated by fluorescence measurement. Using two site-specific fluorescence probes dansylamide and dansyl-L-proline, the binding constants of BPA with HSA at drug site I and site II were determined as 2.90 104 and 3.14 104 L/mol, respectively. By monitoring the intrinsic fluorescence of tryptophan, a binding constant of 4.70 103 L/mol was obtained. Similarly, by employing 8-anilino-1-naphthalenesulfonic acid as fluorescence probe, the binding a nity of BPA with TTR and TBG was measured to be 3.10 105 and 5.90 105 L/mol, respectively. In general, BPA showed lower binding a nity with the proteins than T3 did, and even lower a nity than T4. Using these binding constants, the amount of BPA which would bind to the transport proteins in human plasma was estimated. These results suggest that the concentrations of BPA commonly found in human plasma are probably not high enough to interfere with T4 transport.     

浅析海岸带侵蚀

在收集各国海岸带侵蚀现象资料的基础上,主要分析了造成海岸带侵蚀的人类活动,列举由海岸带侵蚀现象带来的一系列环境问题,并针对中国海岸带的环境现状提出了相关防护措施。     

Impact of climatic shocks on child human capital: evidence from young lives data

This study attempts to assess the impact of two different climatic shocks, drought and excessive rainfall/flood, as perceived by households on child human capital across four countries: Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam – countries with diverse socio-economic backgrounds. Human capital, in this context, subsumes both child learning and health outcomes. The data source is the Young Lives Study and cross-sectional household data on the older cohort of children (between 14 and 16 years of age) are utilized, for the year 2009. The enrolment rate, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, Cloze test and Math test scores are used as proxies for child learning outcomes. The health outcome variables being studied are the WHO-defined Body Mass Index z-scores and Height for Age z-scores. The overall objective is to study heterogeneity in responses to shock in terms of the development of human capital across the set of countries considered. Additionally, the study elaborates on the role of institutional help, during crisis, and the role of household characteristics in buffering these climatic shocks.