19世纪末以来中国洪涝灾害变化及影响因素研究

基于1880年以来全国洪灾灾情、耕地面积以及东部地区年降水量数据,采用EMD分解、MK趋势和突变检验与相关分析等方法,探讨19世纪末至21世纪初中国洪涝灾害的变化特征,及其与降水变化和人类活动之间的联系。结果表明:①19世纪末、20世纪50-60年代和20世纪末这3个时间段,是多世纪以来中国洪灾最剧烈的时期;其中19世纪末和20世纪50-60年代的洪灾剧烈期均对应降水丰沛期,而20世纪末的洪灾剧烈期降水并不十分丰沛。②中国洪灾存在多尺度特征,主要周期有2.7 a、5.2 a的年际变化、9.9 a的年代际和20.5 a、51.6 a的几十年际变化等;东部地区年降水量与洪灾变化周期对应关系较好。③从东部近50 a来年降水量变化来看,20世纪八九十年代洪灾上升并不是降水量增加的结果。降水强度增加、极值降水事件增多可能是其重要原因;另一方面则是由于水土流失加剧、湖泊围垦等人类活动因素的影响。此外,水利投资强度的变化对近50 a洪灾变化也有一定影响。     

南四湖及主要入湖河流沉积物金属空间分布特征与污染评价

对南四湖湖区及其主要入湖河流表层沉积物中金属元素质量分数进行了测试分析. 结果表明,14种金属元素可分为3类组合:Ca和Sr为第Ⅰ组元素;Al,Fe,Na,K,Mg,Ni,V和Ti为第Ⅱ组元素;第Ⅲ组元素包括Zn,Cr,Cu和Pb. 其中,第Ⅰ组元素在独山湖区及微山湖区质量分数较高,与第Ⅱ组元素变化趋势相反,这2组元素主要为流域自然来源;第Ⅲ组元素在老运河、白马河上游、洸府河下游及入湖口沉积物中质量分数较高,可能受到人为污染的影响. 此外,其他表层沉积物中第Ⅱ组元素与第Ⅲ组元素质量分数具有相似的变化规律. 选取流域非耕作土壤样品作为背景,采用参比元素校正及沉积物富集系数法,对Zn,Cr,Cu和Pb等重金属元素的人为污染特征进行了定量评价. 结果显示:老运河沉积物中Cr和Pb的富集系数为3.7和3.9,具有中等程度的人为污染特征.Cu和Zn的富集系数达到16.6和22.0,具备重或严重的人为污染特征.Zn和Cu在洸府河下游及入湖口、白马河上游沉积物中的富集系数为2.0～7.1,具有中等或较重的人为污染特征.其余表层沉积物中Zn,Cr,Cu和Pb的富集系数均低于2.0,基本未受到人为污染的影响.      

危险废物事故排放的湖泊水环境健康风险预测

分析了二维流场点源瞬时排放模型,并借鉴美国环保局推荐使用的健康风险评价模型,建立了一种危险废物事故排放时水环境对人体健康风险的预测方法。以电镀污泥为例验证了该方法的有效性。结果显示:该方法需要参数少且计算简单;电镀污泥中目标污染物(Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb、Zn)所引起的湖泊水环境非致癌风险(3.49×10-4)和致癌风险(3.21×10-11)分别小于美国标准中的可接受风险水平(1.00和1.00×10-6),风险不明显。     

生态危机的社会伦理根源

从人与自然的关系实际上是人与人之间的利益关系的论点出发,揭示了生态危机发生实质是人类为了获取自身利益的最大化,对自然资源无止境的索取和争夺而导致的;论证了生态危机发生的社会伦理根源是技术理性的扩张导致科学技术的异化、消费主义的盛行加重了对自然的消耗与污染、功利主义的漫延导致代际自然资源分配不公;提出了要缓解人与自然日趋紧张的关系,解决生态危机,不仅要依靠科技、经济手段,最根本的还是要从改变人们的社会伦理观出发,用价值理性自觉地调适技术理性的非理性倾向、改变物质主义的生活方式、摒弃发展理念的功利主义,从而调节好人与人之间的利益冲突,处理好人与自然的＂物质变换＂关系。     

不同干扰程度下高原湿地纳帕海土壤酶活性与微生物特征研究

采用In-situ野外取样技术与室内实验分析相结合,对不同人为干扰程度下滇西北高原湿地纳帕海土壤酶活性和微生物数量特征进行研究。结果表明：（1）在人为活动干扰下,湿地类型从原生沼泽向沼泽草甸-草甸-垦后湿地逆向演替,F检验显示土壤脲酶、蛋白酶和蔗糖酶活性在各类型湿地间差异显著（F脲酶=14.246,F蛋白酶=13.760,F蔗糖酶=15.392）,表现为垦后湿地〉沼泽草甸〉草甸〉原生沼泽,过氧化氢酶活性差异不显著（F过氧化氢酶=2.697）,且与上述三种水解酶变化规律不同。（2）F检验显示,土壤细菌数量差异显著（F细菌=10.883）,呈现沼泽草甸〉草甸〉垦后湿地〉原生沼泽;土壤真菌与放线菌数量差异显著（F真菌=18.032,F放线菌=15.078）,呈现沼泽草甸〉垦后湿地〉草甸〉原生沼泽。（3）回归分析表明,土壤脲酶与过氧化氢酶极显著正相关。在草甸湿地类型中,土壤脲酶、蔗糖酶、蛋白酶间呈显著线性正相关。土壤酶活性虽与微生物数量相性不显著。（4）纳帕海湿地土壤微生物数量与酶活性变化是对人为不同干扰类型与强度的响应。     

论可持续发展理论的人文价值取向

分析了可持续发展理论蕴涵的丰富的人文思想基础,阐述了可持续发展理论具有的鲜明人文价值取向：体现人的发展和社会文明进步,呼唤有节制的发展,强调公平发展和生态文明建设     

低压配电线路剩余电流断路器动作判据的研究

为了改善剩余电流断路器频繁误动作的问题,提出以偶次谐波变化率最小值阈值、工频变化量阈值、剩余电流动作整定值相结合的三重判据.首先,搭建活体触电试验平台,获取活体不同部位的多组触电试验数据,利用S变换提取触电波形谐波特征,并计算出触电时刻偶次谐波变比率最小值阈值和工频变化量阈值.其次,搭建人体触电仿真模型,发现存在相似的...     

Adapting a holistic approach to flood management in the Hawkesbury–Nepean region: complexities and perceptions of the agencies involved

This paper looks into the complexity of managing flood risks in the Hawkesbury–Nepean catchment, Australia. Several aspects are explored: (1) the complexities created by the way different agencies are involved in assessing flood risks; (2) different perceptions on acceptable flood risk level; (3) community engagement in defining acceptable flood risk level; (4) views on a holistic flood risk management plan; and (5) challenges of a centralised information system. This study concludes that the complexity of managing a large catchment is exacerbated by the difference in the way professionals perceive the problem. This has led to (1) different standards for acceptable risks; (2) inconsistent attempt to set up a regional-scale flood management plan beyond the jurisdictional boundaries; (3) absence of a regional-scale agency with licence to share and update information; and (d) lack of forums for dialogue with insurance companies to ensure an integrated approach to flood management.     

A numerical investigation of fluid-structure coupling of 3 MW wind turbine blades

In this paper, computational modeling is created for 3 MW wind turbine blade using the software Solidworks, and the computations are carried out using Workbench for the fluid–structure interaction of blades due to both the rated and the extreme wind load. The methods developed are applied to the simulation of the NREL Phase VI wind turbine blades, and validation against published data is presented. Moreover, the static structural analysis for wind turbine rotor is performed using Mechanical APDL. The results show that the maximum values of stress reach 458 MPa and 76.9 MPa due to the rated and extreme wind load, respectively, which are lower than 78.3 MPa, the flexural strength of Swancor 2511-A epoxy resin for blade material.     

Closing the Incentive Gap: The Role of Public and Private Actors in Governing Indonesia's Tuna Fisheries

Indonesia is one of the world's largest tuna producing countries, yet regulatory oversight remains weak and management is poor. Incentive-based approaches are a way to improve state-based resource management, but they often require strong government regulation. In this paper, we use principal–agent theory and the notion of the ‘incentive gap’ to explore how incentives could be brought to bear in Indonesia through a combination of private and public actors. With a shared fish stock like tuna, we argue that a double principal–agent problem emerges, where information, asymmetries between various players complicate management. We focus on the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in three different tuna fisheries in Indonesia to identify the nature of the incentive gap, and comment on the mix of public and private actors currently engaged in tuna fishery governance towards reducing the gap. The double principal–agent problem is a useful yet underutilized framework to understand the dynamics of shared stocks management. In this first application to a developing country fishery, we conclude that information asymmetries cannot be overcome without the involvement of private actors, who are increasingly becoming important in aligning regional and global objectives with those of fishers themselves.