基于人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)的接车进路办理诊断时间的研究

接发列车作业事故在铁路运输事故中占有相当大的比重。为减少接车作业事故的发生,合理制定车站接车进路办理时的诊断时间是保证接车作业安全的关键。针对车站采用写实法查定时具有较大随意性的问题,提出采用人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型,根据人因失误概率计算接车作业诊断时间的方法,并在自动闭塞区段通过模拟机实验进行了验证。结果表明,HCR模型确定的诊断时间与人因失误之间的关系与写实法的测定数据具有良好的符合性;作业人员的训练水平对诊断时间有较大的影响;利用该模型,根据作业人员的训练水平与可接受的人因失误概率,可以确定接车进路办理的最佳诊断时间,或对写实法测定的诊断时间进行订正。     

南岭山区传统聚落景观资源及其旅游开发研究

南岭山区的乡村传统聚落,经特定历史地理环境的演进和发展,以其特有的景观美学价值、鲜明的地域文化特色和科学实用价值的完美结合,而成为极为珍贵的历史文化遗产。由于古代南岭山区复杂地理环境的隔绝机制和移民们一直恪守着祖宗留下的遗风,其聚落景观至今得以大量保存而成为极富开发价值的 旅游资源。为促进南岭山区21世纪社会经济的快速发展,应将这一丰富的旅游资源的开发利用和保护列入议事日程。但必须深入调查研究,并坚持突出重点,择优开发;因地制宜,突出地域文化特色;旅游开发与乡村社会经济发展协调;保护与利用并重等开发原则。     

基于熵权-HDT的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。为确定不同情境下人误发生概率,结合某维修基地具体情况,采用熵权法确定主要的影响因子,并基于全决策树法分析主要影响因子对航空器维修人误概率的影响程度。计算结果显示,该维修基地人因可靠性的主要影响因子包括航空器维修人员的安全态度、技能、沟通、工作环境、压力以及工段长领导能力。根据各主要影响因子的不同品质描述等级组合,确定该情境下航空器维修人员的人误概率。鉴于该维修基地人因可靠性影响最明显的因子是"沟通",提出信息及时交流、明确沟通重要性等解决措施。     

基于DEMATEL方法的海运行为形成因子影响关系分析

为揭示并量化海运人因可靠性分析(HRA)中行为形成因子(PSF)间复杂的影响关系,采用DEMATEL方法对航海人员值班任务中9个PSF的依赖关系进行建模和分析,并验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:船上组织的完善程度、驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、可用时间等PSF在系统中的作用大;船上组织的完善程度、人机界面(MMI)与运行支持的完善性、值班区间以及培训和准备的充分性4个PSF为原因因素,驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、同时出现的目标任务数量、可用时间、船上工作及船舶航行条件和操作规程/计划的可用性5个PSF为结果因素。安全管理人员应针对作用大或原因因素中的PSF制定安全管理措施,改善情景环境,提高人因可靠性。     

基于HERA-JANUS模型的空管人误认知分析

空管人误分类分析是空管人误研究的基础。为了对管制员人误进行系统的分类研究,结合空管业务知识和认知心理学理论,对欧洲航空安全局和美国联邦航空局合作开发的HERA-JANUS模型的工作原理和流程进行较详细地分析。运用该方法模型,对我国一起空管不安全事件案例进行分析后得到3个由管制员所产生的人误差错,并对这3个人误差错分别从人误类型、人误认知、相关因素3方面进行详尽的分析研究,最后得出该不安全事件的21项人误结果。结果表明,HERA-JANUS模型能较全面地从深层次分析管制员的人误,其分类形式也便于开展空管人误统计。     

环境风险评价内涵与外延研究

在简要介绍环境风险评价(Environmental Risk Assessment,ERA)发展历程的基础上,总结现阶段国内外普遍采用的ERA定义,深入分析ERA的内涵和类型,在重新给出涵盖性更全面的ERA定义的同时,对3种评价内容的评价程序和评价方法进行了横向比较。收集整理了ERA的研究进展和应用现状,从时间、范畴和应用范围3个方面划定了ERA的外延。     

GIS与数模支持下的油气田环境风险预警系统研究

简要介绍了油气田在建设与生产过程中对环境的影响,构建并开发了基于GIS与数模的油气田环境风险预警系统。系统包含大气污染模拟模型、地表水污染模拟模型和地下水污染模拟模型,实现了环境监测数据的管理、实时监测预警和污染模拟、快速应急响应三大功能。介绍了油气田环境风险预警系统的设计及基本功能,探索了将地理信息系统与数学模型相结合运用于油气田环境风险预警的方法。实践表明,以GIS技术为平台,结合数学模型为辅助进行环境风险预警是可行的。     

消防灭火系统中人的因素的定量研究

基于人机工程学研究思路,把消防灭火系统中人的因素分解为可用度、可信度和固有能力,筛选出温度和工作时间作为影响因子,利用层次分析法和线性回归法确定了消防灭火人力系统的可信度和固有能力,结合某消防支队训练统计数据对此研究方法进行了实例分析.结果表明,温度和工作时间对人力系统存在明显影响,相比之下,工作时间的影响较大,但消防灭火系统人的因素的决定因子是人力系统的固有能力,即灭火人员的业务能力、身体素质、心理素质和火场作风.此方法的提出对于消防灭火战斗效能评估、灭火力量组织和配置有着重要意义.     

Environmental awareness and biodiversity conservation among resettled communal farmers in Gwayi Valley Conservation Area,Zimbabwe

This study was conducted in Gwayi Valley Conservation Area in Zimbabwe. The objective was to evaluate the level of environmental awareness raising among rural communities resettled by government in a wildlife conservation area and their behavior and actions towards biodiversity conservation. We selected three communities based on the degree of exposure to environmental awareness campaigns by various government departments and non-governmental organizations. This formed a gradient of exposure to environmental awareness campaigns, ranging from the most accessible and exposed community (Hangano), moderately exposed (Gwayi) through to the least accessible and exposed community (Karna). We used focus group discussions, key informant interviews and structured interviews with 95 respondents in the selected communities from November 2016 to April 2017. Through public awareness raising, a number of conservation groups were established including fire and hunting committees, anti-poaching teams and environmental resource monitors. While these groups were found to be either inactive or less effective in Gwayi and Karna, all were found to be very active and effective in Hangano. Similarly, community behavior and actions that caused biodiversity loss such as indiscriminate cutting of live trees, poaching, streambank cultivation, fishing in rivers with nets and use of sledges were much reduced in Hangano than in Gwayi and Karna. Frequent environmental awareness campaigns played a critical role in promoting biodiversity in Hangano. We conclude that substantial gains can be made in environmental conservation by investing more in public awareness campaigns, particularly in developing countries such as Zimbabwe where financial resources for conservation are scarce.     

Shared governance arrangements and social connectivity: advancing large-scale coastal and marine conservation initiatives in the Dominican Republic

Increasingly, large-scale conservation initiatives (e.g. through protected area networks and transboundary connectivity initiatives) are growing in prevalence as their diverse sustainability benefits are further understood. Conventional, centralized approaches to conservation, often featuring unconnected discrete ‘patches’, are no longer sufficient for achieving effective, long-term protection. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of how to achieve effective large-scale conservation initiatives by addressing the following objectives: (1) To assess the degree to which local actors are involved in coastal and marine conservation practices, with a focus on large-scale conservation initiatives (LCIs); and, (2) To identify barriers and opportunities for achieving effective large-scale conservation. This paper presents findings from research in the Dominican Republic where social-ecological components of coastal and marine systems are considered from multiple perspectives to advance management and increase effectiveness of LCIs. Data were acquired through semi-structured interviews with 35 coastal and marine actors (e.g. fishers, ministers, non-governmental organizations, practitioners, academics) working at local to international scales. Interview data were analysed through thematic coding using QSR-Nvivo 12 software. Respondents expressed that non-governmental actors (e.g. private organizations, coastal communities) should have an increased role in developing, implementing and managing coastal and marine LCIs. Additionally, respondents commented on strategies to enhance social connectivity (i.e. sharing experiences, programs and expertise) within coastal and marine practices to enhance effectiveness and facilitate learning. Findings contribute to the understanding of complex coastal and marine social-ecological systems of the Dominican Republic and provide further support for involving multiple actors in governance processes.