CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用

CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。     

实施最严格的野生动物保护:中国现状与改革方向

随着全球工业化和城市化的快速发展,野生动物及其栖息地保护面临着前所未有的挑战。本文识别了我国的野生动物保护存在的主要问题:(1)现行《野生动物保护法》对野生动物保护范围界定过窄,资源利用主导思维干扰了野生动物保护,缺乏对生态系统与生物安全的足够重视。(2)由于现行野生动物保护立法、执法和管理制度不健全甚至缺失,导致野生动物驯养繁殖交易市场长期混乱,甚至成为非法野生动物交易的"洗白工具"。(3)社会公众群体尊重和保护野生动物意识淡薄,全民参与和监督举报机制不健全。本文认为,我国应该实施最严格的野生动物保护制度,实现人与野生动物平等、文明、和谐相处,建议:(1)树立尊重野生动物物种生存权、人与野生动物文明和谐相处的理念,摒弃野生动物资源利用观,重构人与野生动物平等共存关系。(2)清晰界定野生动物法律定义,扩大野生动物保护范围,围绕捕猎、繁育、运输、储存、转让、食用等环节,全面、科学、精准地构建最严格的野生动物保护制度。(3)立足于全面保护野生动物,严格禁止滥食滥用野生动物和过度商业化利用,实行野生动物保护利用特许制度,并大幅提高标准严格控制交易和利用,建立职责清晰的执法监管和惩治体系。(4)建立最严格的野生动物保护公众参与和司法治理体系,实施野生动物非法贸易、猎杀的行政公益诉讼制度,引导公众建立爱护保护野生动物、不食不用野生动物的文明行为,最终实现人类社会与野生动物的文明和谐共处。     

Five-wheel framework for system-based monitoring of heavy metal pollution in rivers

Sectorial approach for monitoring heavy metal pollution in rivers has failed to report realistic pollution status and associated ecological and human health risks. The increasing spread of heavy metals from different sources and emerging risks to human and environmental health call for reexamining heavy metal pollution monitoring frameworks. Also, the sources, spread, and load of heavy metals in the environment have changed significantly over time, requiring consequent modification in the monitoring frameworks. Therefore, studies on heavy metal monitoring in rivers conducted in the last decade were evaluated for experimental designs, research frameworks, and data presentations. Most studies (∼99%) (i) lacked inclusiveness of all environmental compartments; (ii) focused on “one pollutant – one/two compartment” or sometimes “one pollutant – one compartment – one effect” approach; and (iii) remained “data-rich but information poor.” An ecological approach with integrative system thinking is proposed to develop a holistic approach for monitoring river pollution. It is visualized that heavy metal monitoring, risk analyses, and water management must incorporate tracking pollutants in different environmental compartments of a river (water, sediment, and floodplain/bank soil) and consider correlating it with riverbank land use. The systems-based pollution monitoring and assessment studies will reveal the critical factors that drive heavy metals pollutant movement in ecosystems and associated potential risks to the environment, wildlife, and humans. Also, water quality and pollution indexing tools would help better communicate complex pollution data and associated risks among all stakeholders. Therefore, integrating systems approaches in scientific- and policy-based tools would help sustainably manage the health of rivers, wildlife, and humans.     

Assessing the Effectiveness of Winter Cover Crops for Controlling Agricultural Nutrient Losses

A nutrient loss reduction strategy is necessary to guide the efforts of improving water quality downstream of an agricultural watershed. In this study, the effectiveness of two winter cover crops, namely cereal rye and annual ryegrass, is explored as a loss reduction strategy in a watershed that ultimately drains into a water supply reservoir. Using a coupled optimization-watershed model, optimal placements of the cover crops were identified that would result in the tradeoffs between nitrate-N losses reduction and adoption levels. Analysis of the 10%, 25%, 50%, and 75% adoption levels extracted from the optimal tradeoffs showed that the cover crop placements would provide annual nitrate-N loss reductions of 3.0%–3.7%, 7.8%–8.8%, 15%–17.5%, and 20.9%–24.3%, respectively. In addition, for the same adoption levels (i.e., 10%–75%), sediment (1.8%–17.7%), and total phosphorus losses (0.8%–8.6%) could be achieved. Results also indicate that implementing each cover crop on all croplands of the watershed could cause annual water yield reduction of at least 4.8%, with greater than 28% in the months of October and November. This could potentially be detrimental to the storage volume of the downstream reservoir, especially in drought years, if cover crops are adopted in most of the reservoir's drainage area. Evaluating water yield impacts, particularly in periods of low flows, is thus critical if cover crops are to be considered as best management practices in water supply watersheds.     

Changes in electrical generator cooling systems: Are they cost-effective sources of water now and under climate change?

In the United States, thermal power plant electrical generators (EGs) are large water diverters and consumptive users who need water for cooling. Retrofitting existing cooling systems to dry cooling and building new facilities with dry cooling can save water and reduce EG's vulnerability to drought. However, this can be an expensive source of water. We estimate that the cost of water saved by retrofitting cooling in existing EGs ranges from $0.04/m³ to $18/m³ depending on facility characteristics. Also water savings from building new EGs with dry cooling ranges in cost per unit water from $1.29/m³ to $2.24/m³. We compare costs with that for water development projects identified in the Texas State Water Plan. We find the water cost from converting to dry cooling is lower than many of the water development possibilities. We then estimate the impact of climate change on the cost of water saved, finding climate change can increase EG water use by up to 9.3% and lower the costs of water saved. Generally, it appears that water planners might consider cooling alterations as a cost competitive water development alternative whose cost would be further decreased by climate change.     

鸭绿江上游细鳞鱼的生境现状及资源退化原因分析

细鳞鱼作为名贵的鲑科陆封型冷水性鱼类,属于国家二级保护动物。近年来我国冷水鱼资源急剧下降,有些种类濒临灭绝。本项研究进行了冷水鱼在鸭绿江上游支流生存繁息的生态环境现状调查和监测,为冷水鱼生存环境提供背景值,同时也为冷水鱼类的人工增养殖和保存冷水鱼物种提供环境方面的科学依据。根据测定结果分析,冷水鱼资源退化的直接原因不是冷水水域水质的恶化,而是人类活动的干扰。     

Towards a long-term integrated monitoring programme in Europe: network design in theory and practice

Long-term integrated monitoring is an important approach forinvestigating, detecting and predicing the effects ofenvironmental changes. Currently, European freshwaters,glaciers, forests and other narural and semi-natural ecosystemsand habitats are monitored by a number of networks establishedby different organisations. However, many monitoring programmeshave a narrow focus (e.g. targeting individual ecosystems) andmost have different measurement protocols and sampling design.This has resulted in poor integration of ecosystem monitoring ata European level, leading to some overlapping of efforts and alack of harmonised data to inform policy decisions. The need fora consistent pan-European long-term integrated monitoring ofterrestrial systems programme is recognised in the scientificcommunity. However, the design of such a system can be problematic, not least because of the constraints imposed bythe need to make maximum use of existing sites and networks.Based on the outcomes of the NoLIMITS project (Networking ofLong-term Integrated Monitoring in Terrestrial Systems), thisarticle reviews issues that should be addressed in designing aprogramme based on existing monitoring sites and networks. Fourmajor design issues are considered: (i) users' requirements,(ii) the need to address multiple objectives, (iii) role ofexisting sites and (iv) operational aspects.     

Building a global taxonomy of wildlife offenses

Most countries have many pieces of legislation that govern biodiversity, including a range of criminal, administrative, and civil law provisions that state how wildlife must be legally used, managed, and protected. However, related debates in conservation, such as about enforcement, often overlook the details within national legislation that define which specific acts are illegal, the conditions under which laws apply, and how they are sanctioned. Based on a review of 90 wildlife laws in 8 high-biodiversity countries with different legal systems, we developed a taxonomy that describes all types of wildlife offenses in those countries. The 511 offenses are organized into a hierarchical taxonomy that scholars and practitioners can use to help conduct legal analyses. This is significant amidst competing calls to strengthen, deregulate, and reform wildlife legislation, particularly in response to fears over zoonotic threats and large-scale biodiversity loss. It can be used to provide more nuance legal analyses and facilitate like-for-like comparisons across countries, informing processes to redraft conservation laws, review deregulation efforts, close loopholes, and harmonize legislation across jurisdictions. We applied the taxonomy in a comparison of sanctions in 8 countries for hunting a protected species. We found not only huge ranges in fines (US$0 to $200,000) and imprisonment terms (1.5 years to life imprisonment), but also fundamentally different approaches to designing sanctions for wildlife offenses. The taxonomy also illustrates how future legal taxonomies can be developed for other environmental issues (e.g., invasive species, protected areas).     

人体热应变预测方法标准在热安全评价中的应用

工业生产中存在着大量的高温工作环境,如高温生产车间或夏季露天作业环境等。高温工作环境可能导致人体体温升高、出汗脱水,对人体安全造成危害。建立人体热生理响应模型,通过计算得出人体生理指标变化,从而判断人体安全状态,是有效的人体安全评价方法。ISO 7933是人体热应变计算方法的国际标准。在考虑了环境和人体的多种情况下,给出人体相关生理参数的计算方法。基于此方法,与人体热安全阈值相结合,建立人体热安全评价方法,并给出了典型热环境下的算例。该方法也可用于评价热防护服的有效性。     

Zearalenone screening of human breast milk from the Naples area

The mycotoxin zearalenone exhibits estrogenic and anabolic properties in several animal species, humans included. Food contamination by zearalenone is caused either by direct contamination of grains, fruits, and their based-products or by “carry-over” of mycotoxins in animal tissues, milk, and eggs after intake of contaminated feedstuff. Now, a survey on zearalenone contamination in breast milk of healthy primiparous women living in the Naples countryside was conducted. From 47 healthy primiparous women, breast milk samples were collected within the first six weeks after delivery as well as clinical data of mother–newborn pairs. Breast milk analyses were performed with both competitive indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection. At 36.9 ± 2.6 days after vaginal delivery, the mean zearalenone contents of the breast milk samples were 1.13 ± 0.34 µg/L. The zearalenone levels correlated with both mother weights before pregnancy (r = ?0.506; P < 0.001) and at delivery (r = ?0.351; P < 0.05). The present results indicate that breast milk may be contaminated with zearalenone.