Combining payment for crop damages and reward for productivity to address wildlife conflict

Conflict caused by wild herbivores damaging crops is an almost universal problem in conservation. We designed and implemented a game-theory-based system for supporting farmers whose crops were being heavily damaged by wild herbivores. In this community-operated system, farmers self-report their production, which is endorsed by neighboring farmers. The average deficit in production is compensated for by a payment that is directly proportional to the average deficit in production of the group and to the individual farmer's productivity. As a result, farmers are compensated for the average damage (support) and rewarded for individual productivity (reward) (i.e., support cum reward [SuR]). The design of the game is such that only honest reporting gives maximum returns. Farmers who underreport receive less payment because the SuR amount is proportionate to their self-reported productivity. The endorsing farmers, in their own self-interest, prevent overreporting. The system involves multiple game situations, the combined result of which is a stable strategy based on honesty and hard work. In 2 villages along the western boundary of Tadoba Andhari Tiger Reserve in central India, we tested the system with 75 farmers over 6 crop seasons. After a few initial attempts to cheat, honesty prevailed throughout the group. Average crop productivity increased 2.5-fold, in spite of damage, owing to increased effort by farmers. Apart from wildlife conflict resolution, the model offers a promising alternative to crop insurance and a potential behavioral green revolution in agriculture.     

职业技术学院教师队伍的SWOT分析与对策--以湖南工业职业技术学院为例

从高职学院人力资源开发与管理者的角度，通过对湖南工业职业技术学院师资队伍结构、素质和管理现状进行了SWOT分析，针对性地提出了高职学校师资队伍建设的战略思路、战略重点和系统策略．     

The Health of the Oceans - A 1994 Update

Three collectives of substances - plastics, plant nutrients, biotoxins - are candidates for monitoring programmes that could keep track of the quality of ocean waters for vital life processes. All three are not subject to systematic surveillance at present. They are each characterized by long residence times in the marine environment, by increasing influx, and by growing evidence of their deleterious impacts on living systems.     

杭州市环保系统人才队伍建设初探

阐述了新形势对杭州市环保系统人才队伍建设提出的更高要求,系统分析了人才发展现状,从环保人才分类体系出发,提出了各类环保人才队伍建设的对策建议。     

基于专家判断的行为形成因子评分方法

本文在研究现有行为形成因子评分方法的基础上,提出了一种新的行为形成因子评分方法,该评分方法首先将行为形成因子对人绩效的影响作用分为人的可靠性、人的工作效率和人的工作负荷三个方面,针对每个方面将行为形成因子的水平又划分成5个等级,并通过问卷调查以获取行为形成因子每个等级的支持情况;然后设置了行为形成因子的评分范围,对每个等级赋予一定的数值,并结合问卷调查的结果得到行为形成因子每个方面的评分;最后使用层次分析法获得行为形成因子三个方面的相对权重,通过加权求和最终得到行为形成因子的综合评分。这种基于专家判断的评分方法在操作上比较简便,得到的结果能够体现行为形成因子对人绩效的全面影响,可以为人因可靠性分析提供有益的指导。     

无定河流域1956—2009年径流量变化及其影响因素

黄河是中国的第二大河,近几十年,黄河的径流量发生明显变化,分析径流量变化及驱动力,对流域治理及水资源的开发利用、解决水资源的供需矛盾,促进社会、经济、生态可持续发展等具有重要作用,因此分析径流量的变化趋势及驱动力已成为国内学术界的热点话题。无定河是黄河中游重要的一级支流,也是中游区水土保持措施实施最早的流域,因此以无定河流域为例分析黄河中游径流量的变化趋势及原因。论文首先分析白家川站1956—2009年径流量的变化趋势,并采用7种时间序列突变检验方法分析序列的突变点;其次,通过估算不同时期气候变化对径流量的影响,从而分析人类活动对径流量的影响。结果显示:1956—2009年无定河流域径流量显著减少,气候干旱化加剧;径流量时间序列突变发生在1971年和1997年,这与20世纪70年代大规模实施的水保措施及1997年以来的退耕还林等生态修复措施有关;70年代以来人类活动影响是径流量减少的主要原因。     

2006～2012年珠江三角洲地区O_3污染对人群健康的影响

通过检索国内流行病学研究成果,Meta分析得到综合的暴露-反应系数后,利用粤港珠江三角洲区域空气监控网络监测的O3浓度,基于相对危险度模型对2006~2012年珠江三角洲地区归因于O3污染的人群健康影响进行评估.Meta分析结果表明,O3浓度每升高10μg/m3,非意外死亡率?心血管疾病死亡率和呼吸系统疾病死亡率分别上升0.45%(95%置信区间CI:0.40%~0.50%)?0.70%(95%CI:0.57%~0.86%)和0.64%(95%CI:0.47%~0.86%).人群健康影响评估表明,由于暴露人口和O3浓度的增加,珠江三角洲地区归因O3污染的死亡人数呈上升趋势,2012年归因死亡人数约为2006年的3倍,其中O3浓度的增加对归因死亡增量的贡献达2/3以上;2006~2012年区域年均归因的非意外死亡?心血管疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡分别为3982(95%CI:3543~4420)?1894(95%CI:1546~2319)和1128(95%CI:830~1508)人.对评估模型的敏感性试验表明选择不同的参数,评估结果有较大的偏差,因此在以后相关研究工作中需要深化参数适用性的探讨.     

琼北火山岩区农田土壤重金属和硒含量评价及来源研究

基于海南岛1:25万多目标区域地球化学调查结果,针对海南岛北部(简称“琼北”)基性火山岩地区农田土壤,按照不同成土母质类型采集土壤样品,重点分析Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd、Hg、As、Cr、Ni、Se9种元素.结合GB 15618-1995《土壤环境质量标准》和富Se土壤评价标准,运用单项污染指数法对研究区土壤环境质量进行评价,查明其Se质量比水平.结果表明,基性火山岩区农田土壤Cr、Ni超标严重,Cu次之,Zn和Cd属潜在超标因子,Pb、Hg和As整体属清洁水平,且土壤整体达富Se水平.根据研究结果,提出了农业安全生产建议.综合聚类分析和因子分析结果表明,研究区农田土壤中Cu、Cr、Ni和Se主要来源于成土母质,Cu、Cr、Ni属母质所致高背景含量,而Cd、Cu、Zn已明显受到农业活动(施肥)影响.     

A Simulation Study on the Efficacy of Advanced Belt Restraints to Mitigate the Effects of Obesity for Rear-Seat Occupant Protection in Frontal Crashes

Objective: Recent field data analyses have shown that the safety advantages of rear seats relative to the front seats have decreased in newer vehicles. Separately, the risks of certain injuries have been found to be higher for obese occupants. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of advanced belt features on the protection of rear-seat occupants with a range of body mass index (BMI) in frontal crashes.

Methods: Whole-body finite element human models with 4 BMI levels (25, 30, 35, and 40 kg/m²) developed previously were used in this study. A total of 52 frontal crash simulations were conducted, including 4 simulations with a standard rear-seat, 3-point belt and 48 simulations with advanced belt features. The parameters varied in the simulations included BMI, load limit, anchor pretensioner, and lap belt routing relative to the pelvis. The injury measurements analyzed in this study included head and hip excursions, normalized chest deflection, and torso angle (defined as the angle between the hip–shoulder line and the vertical direction). Analyses of covariance were used to test the significance (P <.05) of the results.

Results: Higher BMI was associated with greater head and hip excursions and larger normalized chest deflection. Higher belt routing increased the hip excursion and torso angle, which indicates a higher submarining risk, whereas the anchor pretensioner reduced hip excursion and torso angle. Lower load limits decreased the normalized chest deflection but increased the head excursion. Normalized chest deflection had a positive correlation with maximum torso angle. Occupants with higher BMI have to use higher load limits to reach head excursions similar to those in lower BMI occupants.

Discussion and Conclusion: The simulation results suggest that optimizing load limiter and adding pretensioner(s) can reduce injury risks associated with obesity, but conflicting effects on head and chest injuries were observed. This study demonstrated the feasibility and importance of using human models to investigate protection for occupants with various BMI levels. A seat belt system capable of adapting to occupant size and body shape will improve protection for obese occupants in rear seats.     

燃煤型砷中毒的最低有效累积暴露剂量初探

以陕南燃煤型砷中毒病区的5个自然村为调查采样点,通过现场流行病学调查和环境样品的分析测定,分析砷暴露人群的砷暴露途径,估算各暴露途径(呼吸、饮水和食物)的暴露剂量及对总暴露的贡献率,探讨引发燃煤型地方性砷中毒发病的最低有效暴露剂量。研究结果表明,除对照村外,采暖季各村的烤火间和卧室空气砷含量均有不同程度的超标,水和粮食未受燃煤砷污染。在采暖季,高砷煤燃烧污染的空气是人群砷暴露的主要来源;在非采暖季消化道砷暴露是各村的主要摄砷途径;提示消化道暴露对累积砷暴露的贡献不容忽视。结合问卷调查和流行病学调查结果,估算陕南病区引发燃煤型砷中毒的最低累积暴露剂量在1 712 mg左右。