核电站中处理人的行为问题的系统方法

引发事件的失误原因或者作为行为趋向的一部分统称为人的行为问题.总结出了核电站中处理人的行为问题的系统方法,即从问题的识别与描述、事件调研、原因分析到开发纠正行动这样一个过程.结合核电站实际,着重介绍了人误原因的识别,如根原因分析技术和起因树.     

HUMAN BEHAVIOR AND RESPONSE TOWARDS STORM HAZARD IN WEST VANCOUVER,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

ABSTRACT: Human behavior and response towards storm hazard are examined in this study. One-hundred and twenty flood victims in West Vancouver, British Columbia, were administered a sentence completion test to ascertain how these victims behaved and responded to the flash flood of July 12, 1972. The sentence completion test consisted of 11 sentence stems. Seven of these dealt with the respondent's behavior toward the storm experience, and four with the issue of internal vs. external locus of control. Completions of the seven sentence stems at three time situations showed that West Vancouverites expressed the normal reactions of fear and anxiety before the storm; showed negative emotions during the storm; and displayed a feeling of mutual cooperation after the storm. Completions of the remaining four sentence stems revealed that West Vancouverites emphasized the importance of internal factors, viz., autonomy, drive and hard work, in controlling their lives. They recognized God as a benevolent - protective and almighty - powerful figure. Forty percent of the respondents did not believe in luck, while 8 percent regarded it as important in their lives. One might conclude that West Vancouverites could cope with natural hazardous threats better than those who rely on external factors in directing their lives.     

INTERNATIONAL DECADE ON DRINKING WATER AND SANITATION1

ABSTRACT: The UN conference on Human Settlements (HABITAT) held in June 1976 at Vancouver, Canada, concluded that nearly two-thirds of the population of the developing world lacked access to safe drinking water and that a larger proportion lacked the means for hygienic human waste disposal. The conference urged governments to give priority to these two areas in their developement process. In March 1977, the UN Water Conference, held at Mar del Plata, Argentina, called for establishing the 1980's as the Decade for Drinking Water and Sanitation. The goal would be to bring clean water and sanitation to all peoples in the world by 1990. Since March 1979, four separate UN bodies have passed resolutions supporting the Decade and calling on all governments to support the Decade's goals. The U.S. Government, other OECD member states, and the private sector must combine to make this Decade a success.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Thomas Drabek, Disaster-induced Employee Evacuation
Hugh Brammer, Agricultural Disaster Management in Bangladesh
Boris Porfiriev, Disaster Planning and Emergency Management in Russia
Patrick Bracken and Celia Petty, eds, Rethinking the Trauma of War
R. Cohen and F. M. Deng, eds, The Forsaken People: Case Studies of the Internally Displaced
Tom Trier and Lars Funch Hansen, eds, Conflict and Forced Displacement in the Caucasus: Perspectives, Challenges and Responses     

Human Impacts on Drainages of the Mesa Central, Mexico, and Its Genetic Effects on an Endangered Fish, Zoogoneticus quitzeoensis

Abstract:  The Mesa Central of Mexico is of special conservation interest due to its high richness of freshwater fish species, of which the goodeines are one of the most representative groups. Through an integrated approach, we determined conservation priorities for goodeine populations. We based our recommendations on the genetic diversity (variation in five microsatellite DNA loci) in 10 populations of Zoogoneticus quitzeoensis and on an analysis of ecological (e.g., presence of exotic species), social (e.g., political situation), and environmental (e.g., pollution) information for 52 historical occurrence points for species in the genus Zoogoneticus . Patterns of genetic erosion and genetic diversity indices were closely associated with human impact. Recent bottleneck events were most evident in the populations from remnants of the lakes drained at the beginning of the twentieth century. We identified seven operational conservation units (OCUs), all of which should be conserved because they contain unique portions of the total variation of the species. Special attention needs to be given to increase genetic variability, recover population sizes, and reestablish contact among populations within OCUs. It is imperative to create an integrative and effective approach for the recovery and conservation of the freshwater fish diversity of Central Mexico that is based on social and natural sciences.     

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis with Bird Populations as Habitat-Specific Environmental Indicators: Evidence from Canada

Abstract:  The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis—namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed- or random-effect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空维修人因可靠性分析

根据维修人为因素分析和分类扩展系统的框架选取影响因素,在航空维修领域应用贝叶斯网络进行人因可靠性分析,建立飞机维修效能模型,直观地表示影响因素与维修效能之间的关系。同时以目视检测为例,结合专家意见确定随机影响因素,通过专家访谈、事故报告、调查问卷、操作记录等渠道获取数据,得出条件概率表,进而建立目视检测表现模型,展示贝叶斯网络的建模流程。案例研究结果表明,组织文化、视觉信息、设备、疲劳、检测距离等因素对目视检测表现的影响非常显著,欲改善目视检测表现,必须对多影响因素进行综合管理。     

京津冀地区面向人居环境之水安全格局初探

采用文献法对近年京津冀水资源、水环境、水污染、水灾害、水管理等水安全情势进行相关数据分析,从总体上显示出水危机问题和京津冀地区快速城市化发展的关联性.结果表明:1)京津冀城市群必须向节水型社会模式转型;2)建立区域及城市间的协调机制,才能有效克服流域与区域等级的水问题;3)实现京津冀地区水安全格局的治理行动计划网络,提出保护恢复体系、净化循环体系、限制节约体系、调度再造体系、蓄滞防洪减灾体系五大体系.     

基于改进的HFACS和SPA的矿山安全人因分析

为了更好地服务于矿山安全管理,同时解决矿山人为因素调查、分析和评价方面存在的缺失,对部分矿山事故进行了统计分析,研究了诱发事故发生的人因因素,并分析了各因素发生的原因。在此基础上,结合对部分矿山安全管理现状的研究,建立了矿山HFACS分析模型。该模型包括5类事故致因、24个人因因素。应用该模型,结合集对分析方法,可实现矿山人因因素定量与定性分析。以陕西省某矿山为例,建立了该矿山的HFACS模型。采用专家评分法、层次分析法确定各因素的权重,计算出系统的联系度表达式。利用该表达式对该矿山的集对势、联系度、不确定性和悲观势进行了分析。结果表明,该矿山人因安全状况良好,个别人因因素指标需要改善和提高。矿山HFACS模型可以很好地涵盖矿山事故中的人因因素,通过对矿山人因现状的集对分析,可以有效提高矿山安全性。