城市电力供应系统公共安全风险评估体系及应用

城市电力供应系统与城市公共安全关系紧密，文章分析了导致城市电力供应系统故障或事故的主要风险因素、事故类型及其风险程度，建立了城市电力供应系统公共安全风险评估体系。利用建立的风险评估体系，对某市电力供应系统的安全性进行了风险评估，同时验证了该体系在城市电力供应系统风险评估中的良好适用性。     

Defining the Impact of Non‐Native Species

Non‐native species cause changes in the ecosystems to which they are introduced. These changes, or some of them, are usually termed impacts; they can be manifold and potentially damaging to ecosystems and biodiversity. However, the impacts of most non‐native species are poorly understood, and a synthesis of available information is being hindered because authors often do not clearly define impact. We argue that explicitly defining the impact of non‐native species will promote progress toward a better understanding of the implications of changes to biodiversity and ecosystems caused by non‐native species; help disentangle which aspects of scientific debates about non‐native species are due to disparate definitions and which represent true scientific discord; and improve communication between scientists from different research disciplines and between scientists, managers, and policy makers. For these reasons and based on examples from the literature, we devised seven key questions that fall into 4 categories: directionality, classification and measurement, ecological or socio‐economic changes, and scale. These questions should help in formulating clear and practical definitions of impact to suit specific scientific, stakeholder, or legislative contexts. Definiendo el Impacto de las Especies No‐Nativas     

Plant blindness and the implications for plant conservation

Plant conservation initiatives lag behind and receive considerably less funding than animal conservation projects. We explored a potential reason for this bias: a tendency among humans to neither notice nor value plants in the environment. Experimental research and surveys have demonstrated higher preference for, superior recall of, and better visual detection of animals compared with plants. This bias has been attributed to perceptual factors such as lack of motion by plants and the tendency of plants to visually blend together but also to cultural factors such as a greater focus on animals in formal biological education. In contrast, ethnographic research reveals that many social groups have strong bonds with plants, including nonhierarchical kinship relationships. We argue that plant blindness is common, but not inevitable. If immersed in a plant‐affiliated culture, the individual will experience language and practices that enhance capacity to detect, recall, and value plants, something less likely to occur in zoocentric societies. Therefore, conservation programs can contribute to reducing this bias. We considered strategies that might reduce this bias and encourage plant conservation behavior. Psychological research demonstrates that people are more likely to support conservation of species that have human‐like characteristics and that support for conservation can be increased by encouraging people to practice empathy and anthropomorphism of nonhuman species. We argue that support for plant conservation may be garnered through strategies that promote identification and empathy with plants.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

驾驶员风险认知能力对交通安全的影响

为辨别不同驾驶员风险认知能力对驾驶安全的影响。通过设置13种存在潜在风险的交通情景,引入惩罚用时机制,利用驾驶模拟器,对熟练驾驶员和非熟练驾驶员在风险认知培训前后的风险认知能力进行比较,找出不同驾驶员对风险认知的差异。试验结果显示,熟练驾驶员的风险认知能力比非熟练驾驶员要高,两者在引起交通风险的因素上是不同的,培训后的风险认知能力较之前有很大提高。培训能够拓宽驾驶员对潜在风险的认知程度,更好地将驾驶员的操作技能、知识体系和外在行为衔接在一起,从而减少交通事故的发生。     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

A review of public acceptance of nature-based solutions: The ‘why’, ‘when’, and ‘how’ of success for disaster risk reduction measures

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as sustainable approaches to address societal challenges. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) has benefited by moving away from purely ‘grey’ infrastructure measures towards NbS. However, this shift also furthers an increasing trend of reliance on public acceptance to plan, implement and manage DRR measures. In this review, we examine how unique NbS characteristics relate to public acceptance through a comparison with grey measures, and we identify influential acceptance factors related to individuals, society, and DRR measures. Based on the review, we introduce the PA-NbS model that highlights the role of risk perception, trust, competing societal interests, and ecosystem services. Efforts to increase acceptance should focus on providing and promoting awareness of benefits combined with effective communication and collaboration. Further research is required to understand interconnections among identified factors and how they can be leveraged for the success and further uptake of NbS.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01502-4.     

北京市地下水中典型抗生素分布特征与潜在风险

应用气相色谱与质谱联用仪分析了北京市地下水内磺胺类(SAs)、氟喹诺酮类(FQs)、四环素类(TCs)、β-内酰胺类和大环内酯类等5大类抗生素.结果表明,北京地下水抗生素以SAs、FQs和TCs等3类为主,检出率分别为78.9%、100%和47.3%,其中甲氧苄氨嘧啶(TMP)、环丙沙星(CIP)和诺氟沙星(NOR)检出率均在70%以上.污灌区地下水样点抗生素浓度显著高于水源地和南水回灌区样点,磺胺二甲嘧啶(SDD)和磺胺嘧啶(SDZ)在污灌区检出峰值达到236 ng·L-1和96.8ng·L-1.生态风险评价结果表明,研究区地下水抗生素污染风险较小,但在污灌区显示中等或高等风险等级.CIP应作为研究区地下水抗生素监测中的重点监测对象.     

不同国家基于健康风险的土壤环境基准比较研究与启示

20世纪90年代以来,许多发达国家颁布了基于健康风险的土壤环境标准及基准背景技术文件,为发展中国家启动标准制订和开展基准研究提供了重要的方法学参考.然而,由于各国在环境立法框架、基准推导过程、环境气候特征、土壤类型、人群生活方式与习惯等方面的不同,导致其基准名称、基准功能、保护受体以及基准取值等存在较大的差异.本文在综述基于健康风险的土壤环境基准科学内涵与基本特征的基础上,对不同国家场地土壤环境基准的名称、功能及基准值的差异进行了比较研究,从土地利用类型划分、暴露情景和暴露途径设定、致癌物可接受风险水平选择以及人体暴露参数确定等4个方面,对不同国家制定场地土壤环境基准的关键技术和影响因素进行了总结分析,探讨了借鉴国外经验考虑区域差异制定我国土壤环境基准的对策与方略,并指出了当前我国制定场地土壤环境基准和标准面临的困难和挑战.     

J市饮用水氯消毒副产物分析及其健康风险评价

J市位于太湖下游,其水源水质受上游和自身工农业发展的影响,有机物和氨氮浓度较高,氯消毒副产物及其引发的健康风险广泛受到关注.2012年5、8、10月以及2013年1月采样,使用气相色谱法分析了J市饮用水中4种三卤甲烷和5种卤乙酸的含量,发现自来水中三卤甲烷浓度占三卤甲烷与卤乙酸总和的88.1%以上,5月、8月和次年1月浓度较高(分别为39.34、50.37和28.02μg.L-1),10月浓度(19.19μg.L-1)较低,远高于卤乙酸的浓度(2.58～4.02μg.L-1).自来水煮沸3min后,三卤甲烷可去除92.3%以上,但卤乙酸会大幅度增加.基于EPA推荐的健康风险评价模型对经口摄取途径时氯消毒副产物的致癌和非致癌风险进行计算,发现化学致癌物质的健康风险为3.1×10-6～7.3×10-6,高于可接受风险水平1×10-6;煮沸后致癌物质的健康风险大幅度降低至7.9×10-7,低于可接受风险水平.煮沸后非致癌氯消毒副产物的健康风险由2.1×10-11显著升高至3.4×10-9,未超过10-5的风险管理参考值.