黑龙江上游“冰坝”灾害分析及预报系统

黑龙江上游经常形成“冰坝”。本文分析了冰坝形成原因，建立了气象、水文、冰情等要素的数据库；通过对冰坝与各相关要素的关系分析，建立了冰坝中长期预报系统的数学模型，为“冰坝”中长期预报和减轻冰坝灾害提供了科学依据和有效方法。     

WATERSHED RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE AT GLACIER NATIONAL PARK1

ABSTRACT: We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and the potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activities: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic organism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mountain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which collectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs of ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, and snow-pack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stream discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be significantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scenarios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scientific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park management.     

Photodegradation of halobenzenes in water ice

Results from the photolysis of o, p-dichlorobenzene, bromobenzene, and p-dibromobenzene in water ice are reported. All phototransformations appeared to be based on dehalogenation, coupling, and rearrangement reactions in ice cavities. No photosolvolysis products, i.e. products from intermolecular reactions between organic and water molecules, were found. Many of the products were very toxic substances of a high environmental risk, such as PCBs. The results support our model, in which secondary, very toxic, pollutants can be formed in ice, snow, and atmospheric ice particles from primary pollutants through the action of solar irradiation. The photoproducts may be released to the environment by ice melting and evaporation.     

滇中抚仙湖沉积物元素特征与流域侵蚀研究

通过对云南滇中盆地高原深水湖泊抚仙湖沉积岩芯进行X射线荧光光谱（XRF）元素与磁化率连续扫描,结合聚类分析、主成分分析方法和其它相关环境代用指标,探讨了抚仙湖流域自1840年以来的流域侵蚀与人类活动特征.研究结果表明,抚仙湖XRF元素扫描的聚类分析结果具有明显的阶段性特征,可将其大致划分为3个阶段,即34~24cm（约1715~1813年）,24~9cm（约1813~1947年）和9~0cm（约1947~2018年）.基于抚仙湖沉积物岩芯中元素比值和低频磁化率的主成分分析,识别出的主成分1与主成分2的方差贡献分别为37.72%和25.73%.指示抚仙湖流域侵蚀强度的元素比值Rb/Sr、Ti/Sr、Ti/Rb公因子载荷较大（>0.6）,该结果表明,抚仙湖外源碎屑沉积物的元素比值对流域侵蚀与人类活动具有良好的指示意义.因此,本文使用湖相沉积中的环境代用指标对抚仙湖流域侵蚀与人类活动强度进行重建.研究结果表明,1840年以来人类活动加剧了流域侵蚀强度.自1990年以来随着流域生态环境的逐步恢复,侵蚀强度总体较弱.     

冈底斯中段冷布岗日嘎尔琼沟MIS3以来冰川重建及其平衡线高程估算

冰川与全球气候变化、水资源保护等有着密切关系。根据前人测得的嘎尔琼沟冰碛物¹⁰Be暴露年龄,以及冰川塑性流动理论重建深海氧同位素3阶段（MIS3）以来12次冰进期古冰川表面高程和厚度分布,并分别运用积累区面积比率法（accumulation area ratio,AAR）和面积-高程平衡率法（area altitude balance ratio,AABR）重新估算各期冰川作用的平衡线高程（equilibrium-line altitude,ELA）。结果显示：（1）该冰川面积从MIS3时期的18 km²减少为现在的7.5 km²,小冰期（Little Ice Age,LIA）以来锐减;（2）冰川体积从MIS3时期的1.909 km³减少为现在的0.703 km³,缩减1.206 km³;（3）ELA自MIS3以来上升296 m或227 m,MIS2早期以来上升220 m或178 m,末次冰盛期（Last Glacial Maximum,LGM）以来上升206 m或169 m,早全新世以来上升169 m或144 m,新冰期以来上升113 m或108 m,LIA以来上升79 m或85 m。通过区域对比发现,从30 ka BP开始,青藏高原总体上趋向干旱化,嘎尔琼沟冰进规模逐次减小是对干旱化气候背景的响应。新冰期研究区冰川萎缩速度加快,可能与青藏高原季风在同时期的显著减弱有关。     

核-壳型纳米双金属微粒的研究进展

纳米材料以其独特的性质，在光学、化工、环保、陶瓷、生物和医药等诸多方面具有广泛的应用价值。而纳米金属材料的表面包覆和修饰是21世纪纳米材料科学的一个新的研究方向。文中比较系统地综述了核-壳型纳米双金属微粒制备方法的研究进展，包括还原化学镀法、共沉淀法等，简要分析了各类制备方法的基本原理、特点及适用的范围，并在此基础上讨论了核-壳型纳米双金属粉末的未来研究发展方向。     

海洋冰情预测的径向基函数网络模型

为了提高非线性时序预测模型的精度,利用自相关技术分析了海洋冰情时序的延迟特性,据此确定了RBF网络的输入、输出向量,给出了MATLAB环境下海洋冰情预测的高精度径向基函数(RBF)神经网络的结构、设计、仿真函数和图形结果的输出方法,建立了海洋冰情预测的高精度RBF网络模型.使用27年的海洋冰情实测资料进行了网络的训练和检验,并将之用于预测,各训练样本的误差为0.0,预测值的精度高于门限自回归模型预测的精度.实例分析表明,所构建的RBF网络模型能充分利用预报因子的信息和神经网络方法的非线性映射能力,模型稳定性好,精度高,可广泛应用于各种自然灾害的非线性时序动态预测.     

21世纪西部发展旅游业的资源观

丰富独特的自然景观和浓郁多彩的人文风情是西部地区发展旅游业的强大基础，但它们不能直接决定旅游业的发展水平。只有把旅游资源开发成旅游者需要的旅游产品，才能实现旅游资源的价值，发展西部旅游业。旅游产品的开发能力构成旅游地的核心竞争能力，西部只有提高旅游产品的开发能力，才能适应旅游市场的变化，不断开拓新的市场，促进旅游业水平的提高。在对西部旅游资源进行综合利用和深度开发的同时，还要注重资源的保护，进行“绿色开发”和“绿色经营”，实现资源的可持续利用。     

A HYDRAULIC TRANSIENT MODEL OF THE UPPER ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FOR WATER RESOURCES STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: A one-dimensional hydraulic transient model has been designed for water resource studies of Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River. The model simulates water surface profiles and flows in the St. Lawrence River between Lake Ontario and the Moses-Saunders Power Dam under both open water and ice-covered conditions. Errors in water surface elevations were found to be less than 0.2 feet during quasi-steady conditions on the river. Comparable errors occurred during the ice-covered conditions. A sensitivity analysis found the model to be most sensitive to the roughness coefficients and the flow through the power dam.     

测震数字化观测系统前台机维护的研究

随着地震台站数字化和计算机网络技术的使用，对地震台数字化系统的维护提出了更高的要求。而数字化观测系统前台机的正常与否是整个数字化的核心，前台机的安全和维护工作的成败直接影响数字资料的质量和产出。本文针对在实际工作中所遇到的各种问题，结合地震台的实际情况，归纳和总结了一些方法和见解，提出一些切合实际的解决方法，希望对兄弟台站测震数字化系统的维护有所帮助。