Characterizing efforts to reduce consumer demand for wildlife products

The unsustainable trade in wildlife is a key threat to Earth's biodiversity. Efforts to mitigate this threat have traditionally focused on regulation and enforcement, and there is a growing interest in campaigns to reduce consumer demand for wildlife products. We aimed to characterize these behavior-change campaigns and the evidence of their impacts. We searched peer-reviewed and grey literature repositories and over 200 institutional websites to retrieve information on demand-reduction campaigns. We found 236 campaigns, mainly in the grey literature. Since the 1970s, the number of campaigns increased, although for over 15% a start date could not be found. Asia was the primary focus, although at the national level the United States was where most campaigns took place. Campaigns most often focused on a single species of mammal; other vertebrates groups, with the exception of sharks, received limited attention. Many campaigns focused on broad themes, such as the wildlife trade in general or seafood. Thirty-seven percent of campaigns reported some information on their inputs, 98% on strategies, 70% on outputs, 37% on outcomes (i.e., changes in the target audience), and 9% on impacts (i.e., biological changes or threat reduction). Information on outcomes and impacts was largely anecdotal or based on research designs that are at a high risk of bias, such as pre- and postcampaign comparisons. It was unclear whether demand-reduction campaigns had direct behavioral or biological impacts. The lack of robust impact evaluation made it difficult to draw insights to inform future efforts, a crucial part of effectively addressing complex issues, such as the wildlife trade. If demand-reduction campaigns are to become a cornerstone of the efforts to mitigate the unsustainable trade in wildlife, conservationists need to adopt more rigorous impact evaluation and a more collaborative approach that fosters the sharing of data and insights.     

Tracing the geographic origin of traded leopard body parts in the indian subcontinent with DNA‐based assignment tests

Illicit trade in wildlife products is rapidly decimating many species across the globe. Such trade is often underestimated for wide‐ranging species until it is too late for the survival of their remaining populations. Policing this trade could be vastly improved if one could reliably determine geographic origins of illegal wildlife products and identify areas where greater enforcement is needed. Using DNA‐based assignment tests (i.e., samples are assigned to geographic locations), we addressed these factors for leopards (Panthera pardus) on the Indian subcontinent. We created geography‐specific allele frequencies from a genetic reference database of 173 leopards across India to infer geographic origins of DNA samples from 40 seized leopard skins. Sensitivity analyses of samples of known geographic origins and assignments of seized skins demonstrated robust assignments for Indian leopards. We found that confiscated pelts seized in small numbers were not necessarily from local leopards. The geographic footprint of large seizures appeared to be bigger than the cumulative footprint of several smaller seizures, indicating widespread leopard poaching across the subcontinent. Our seized samples had male‐biased sex ratios, especially the large seizures. From multiple seized sample assignments, we identified central India as a poaching hotspot for leopards. The techniques we applied can be used to identify origins of seized illegal wildlife products and trade routes at the subcontinent scale and beyond.     

Economic Valuation of Subsistence Harvest of Wildlife in Madagascar

Wildlife consumption can be viewed as an ecosystem provisioning service (the production of a material good through ecological functioning) because of wildlife's ability to persist under sustainable levels of harvest. We used the case of wildlife harvest and consumption in northeastern Madagascar to identify the distribution of these services to local households and communities to further our understanding of local reliance on natural resources. We inferred these benefits from demand curves built with data on wildlife sales transactions. On average, the value of wildlife provisioning represented 57% of annual household cash income in local communities from the Makira Natural Park and Masoala National Park, and harvested areas produced an economic return of U.S.$0.42 ha^?1· year^?1. Variability in value of harvested wildlife was high among communities and households with an approximate 2 orders of magnitude difference in the proportional value of wildlife to household income. The imputed price of harvested wildlife and its consumption were strongly associated (p< 0.001), and increases in price led to reduced harvest for consumption. Heightened monitoring and enforcement of hunting could increase the costs of harvesting and thus elevate the price and reduce consumption of wildlife. Increased enforcement would therefore be beneficial to biodiversity conservation but could limit local people's food supply. Specifically, our results provide an estimate of the cost of offsetting economic losses to local populations from the enforcement of conservation policies. By explicitly estimating the welfare effects of consumed wildlife, our results may inform targeted interventions by public health and development specialists as they allocate sparse funds to support regions, households, or individuals most vulnerable to changes in access to wildlife. Valoración Económica de la Caza de Subsistencia de Vida Silvestre en Madagascar     

行人违章过街行为心理成因分析及预测

为深入了解行人在交叉口违章过街行为,调查影响行人在长周期信号控制交叉口违章过街的心理成因,采用计划行为理论(TPB)制作了行人违章过街心理行为问卷。利用此问卷,对上海居民进行过街违章心理研究,得到250个覆盖各年龄层的有效样本。信度效度分析验证了行人违章过街心理行为问卷能够用来解析行人的违章过街心理成因。在对问卷中自述违章过街行为和心理要素的聚类分析筛除明显隐瞒自身违章过街行为的行人后,对心理要素和现实行为违章行为进行判别分析。结果表明:问卷中2个TPB的心理要素:知觉行为控制和行为意向能够用来推测行人的实际违章行为,准确率为73.9%。其中,代表行人对交叉口交通情况和自身时间约束的心理要素知觉行为控制对行人违章行为有关键的影响。     

Conservation overstretch and long-term decline of wildlife and tourism in the Central African savannas

When in 2010 the world's governments pledged to increase protected area coverage to 17% of the world's land surface, several Central African countries had already set aside 25% of their northern savannas for conservation. To evaluate the effectiveness of this commitment, we analyzed the results of 68 multispecies surveys conducted in the seven main savanna national parks in Central Africa (1960–2017). We also assembled information on potential drivers of large herbivore population trends (rainfall and number of rangers) and on tourist numbers and revenues. In six out of the seven parks, wild large herbivore populations declined dramatically over time, livestock numbers increased severalfold, and tourism, the pillar under a once thriving local wildlife industry, collapsed. Zakouma National Park (Chad) stood out because its large herbivore populations increased, an increase that was positively correlated with rainfall and number of rangers (a proxy for management inputs). With increasing insecurity and declining revenues, governments find themselves confronted with too few resources to protect vast areas. To deal with this conversation overstretch, we propose to extend the repeatedly promoted solutions––scaled up funding, enhanced management––with a strategic retreat, focusing scarce resources on smaller areas to save wildlife in the Central African savannas.     

Understanding the sources and effects of abandoned,lost, and discarded fishing gear on marine turtles in northern Australia

Globally, 6.4 million tons of fishing gear are lost in the oceans annually. This gear (i.e., ghost nets), whether accidently lost, abandoned, or deliberately discarded, threatens marine wildlife as it drifts with prevailing currents and continues to entangle marine organisms indiscriminately. Northern Australia has some of the highest densities of ghost nets in the world, with up to 3 tons washing ashore per kilometer of shoreline annually. This region supports globally significant populations of internationally threatened marine fauna, including 6 of the 7 extant marine turtles. We examined the threat ghost nets pose to marine turtles and assessed whether nets associated with particular fisheries are linked with turtle entanglement by analyzing the capture rates of turtles and potential source fisheries from nearly 9000 nets found on Australia's northern coast. Nets with relatively larger mesh and smaller twine sizes (e.g., pelagic drift nets) had the highest probability of entanglement for marine turtles. Net size was important; larger nets appeared to attract turtles, which further increased their catch rates. Our results point to issues with trawl and drift‐net fisheries, the former due to the large number of nets and fragments found and the latter due to the very high catch rates resulting from the net design. Catch rates for fine‐mesh gill nets can reach as high as 4 turtles/100 m of net length. We estimated that the total number of turtles caught by the 8690 ghost nets we sampled was between 4866 and 14,600, assuming nets drift for 1 year. Ghost nets continue to accumulate on Australia's northern shore due to both legal and illegal fishing; over 13,000 nets have been removed since 2005. This is an important and ongoing transboundary threat to biodiversity in the region that requires attention from the countries surrounding the Arafura and Timor Seas. Entender las Fuentes y Efectos de Equipo de Pesca Abandonado, Perdido y Desechado sobre las Tortugas Marinas del Atlántico Norte     

Modeling the Effects of Trophy Selection and Environmental Disturbance on a Simulated Population of African Lions

Abstract:  Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (≥3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (≥6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15–25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity .     

Effects of Trophy Hunting on Lion and Leopard Populations in Tanzania

Abstract: Tanzania holds most of the remaining large populations of African lions (Panthera leo) and has extensive areas of leopard habitat (Panthera pardus), and both species are subjected to sizable harvests by sport hunters. As a first step toward establishing sustainable management strategies, we analyzed harvest trends for lions and leopards across Tanzania's 300,000 km² of hunting blocks. We summarize lion population trends in protected areas where lion abundance has been directly measured and data on the frequency of lion attacks on humans in high‐conflict agricultural areas. We place these findings in context of the rapidly growing human population in rural Tanzania and the concomitant effects of habitat loss, human‐wildlife conflict, and cultural practices. Lion harvests declined by 50% across Tanzania between 1996 and 2008, and hunting areas with the highest initial harvests suffered the steepest declines. Although each part of the country is subject to some form of anthropogenic impact from local people, the intensity of trophy hunting was the only significant factor in a statistical analysis of lion harvest trends. Although leopard harvests were more stable, regions outside the Selous Game Reserve with the highest initial leopard harvests again showed the steepest declines. Our quantitative analyses suggest that annual hunting quotas be limited to 0.5 lions and 1.0 leopard/1000 km² of hunting area, except hunting blocks in the Selous Game Reserve, where harvests should be limited to 1.0 lion and 3.0 leopards/1000 km².     

Meta‐Analysis of the Effects of Human Disturbance on Seed Dispersal by Animals

Animal‐mediated seed dispersal is important for sustaining biological diversity in forest ecosystems, particularly in the tropics. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging modify forests in myriad ways and their effects on animal‐mediated seed dispersal have been examined in many case studies. However, the overall effects of different types of human disturbance on animal‐mediated seed dispersal are still unknown. We identified 35 articles that provided 83 comparisons of animal‐mediated seed dispersal between disturbed and undisturbed forests; all comparisons except one were conducted in tropical or subtropical ecosystems. We assessed the effects of forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging on seed dispersal of fleshy‐fruited tree species. We carried out a meta‐analysis to test whether forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging affected 3 components of animal‐mediated seed dispersal: frugivore visitation rate, number of seeds removed, and distance of seed dispersal. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging did not affect visitation rate and were marginally associated with a reduction in seed‐dispersal distance. Hunting and selective logging, but not fragmentation, were associated with a large reduction in the number of seeds removed. Fewer seeds of large‐seeded than of small‐seeded tree species were removed in hunted or selectively logged forests. A plausible explanation for the consistently negative effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐seeded plant species is that large frugivores, as the predominant seed dispersers for large‐seeded plant species, are the first animals to be extirpated from hunted or logged forests. The reduction in forest area after fragmentation appeared to have weaker effects on frugivore communities and animal‐mediated seed dispersal than hunting and selective logging. The differential effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐ and small‐seeded tree species underpinned case studies that showed disrupted plant‐frugivore interactions could trigger a homogenization of seed traits in tree communities in hunted or logged tropical forests. Meta Análisis de los Efectos de la Perturbación Humana sobre la Dispersión de Semillas por Animales     

Measuring and Monitoring Illegal Use of Natural Resources

Abstract: Illegal use of natural resources is a threat to biodiversity globally, but research on illegal activities has methodological challenges. We examined 100 studies that empirically identify targeted resources, techniques used to procure resources illegally, locations of illegal activities, characteristics of typical violators, incentives driving illegal use of resources, magnitude of the problem of illegal use (e.g., quantities used), or frequency of illegal activity. We based our evaluation of the methods used in these studies on their ability to provide these empirical data, relative labor demands, training and technology requirements, and levels of uncontrollable bias. We evaluated eight different methods: law‐enforcement records, indirect observation, self‐reporting, direct observation, direct questioning, randomized response technique (a survey method designed to improve accuracy of responses to sensitive questions), forensics, and modeling. Different situations favored different methods, each with distinct advantages and limitations. Six context‐specific factors—location of resource use (in situ vs. ex situ), budget, technology and training capacity, ease of detection of illegal activity, scope of illegal activity (limited vs. widespread), and researchers’ willingness to accept bias in results—help narrow the choice of methods. Several methodological concerns applied to any study of illegal resource use: regular monitoring can detect trends; modeling can incorporate sampling error and data uncertainties; researchers must manage levels of bias that vary between methods; triangulation of results from multiple methods can improve accuracy. No method is a panacea, but a combination of techniques can help address the lack of data on illegal activity. Researchers empirically compared results from different methods in only four studies, and no one has compared more than two methods simultaneously. Conservation would benefit from more research focused on: methods comparisons that include cost effectiveness, time efficiency, and statistical rigor; unique applications of the eight techniques currently in use; and testing of new methods.