Estimation of emission reduction potential in China’s industrial sector

The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries, which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long. Studying the potential of industrial emission reduction has great significance in estimating the carbon emission peak of China on the one hand, and adjusting its strategy in international climate change negotiations. By employing the economic accounting method, this article estimates the emission reduction potential of China’s Industrial sector for the period of 2010–2050. It reveals that, taking 2030 as the year when the emission reaches the peak, the total reduction can be 8.38 billion tons (bts) for the period of 2010–2030, with 3.12 bts from structural reduction while 5.26 bts from intensity reduction. Afterwards, reduction will continue with a total amount of 6.59 bts for the period of 2030–2050, where the structural reduction accounts for 2.47 bts, and intensity reduction 4.115 bts. If both industrial and energy consumption structures are improved during the above period, the reduction potential can be even greater, e.g. the emission peak can arrive five years earlier (in the year of 2025) and the peak value can decline by about 8% as compared to the original estimation. Reviewing the trajectory of emission changes in developed countries indicates that the industry sector can contribute to the overall reduction targets through the dual wheels of structural reduction and intensity reduction, even beyond the emission peak. This article concludes with the following policy suggestions. (1) Our estimation on the emission peak of the industrial sector suggests that China should avoid any commitment earlier than 2030 on the timeline of the overall emission peak; (2) the great potential of industrial emission reduction can improve the situation of China in climate change negotiation, where the intensity reduction can serve as an important policy option. (3) Reduction potential can be further enhanced through technology advancement, which requires furthering of market oriented reforms and improvement of institutional design. (4) To secure the reduction effects of the industrial structure adjustment, the balanced development among different regions should be encouraged in order to avoid the reverse adjustment caused by industrial transferring. (5) International cooperation promoting the application and development of industrial emission reduction technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, should be encouraged.     

喀斯特生态脆弱区的土地退化及生态重建 --以贵州省关岭县为例

我国西南喀斯特地区是世界上著名的脆弱生态区，土地退化严重，人地矛盾尖锐，区域发展可持续性差。对此区退化土地进行生态重建，是西部开发中十分紧迫的任务，本文以位于贵州喀斯特高原峡谷地带的关岭县为研究区，分析了喀斯特地区生态环境脆弱性的主要特点，土地退化的主要过程及生态，经济和社会系统驱动机制。在此基础上提出相应的生态重建对策，指出我国西南喀斯特地区可持续发展迫切需要外部的物质、技术，资金等投入扶持，而最终实现则需要立足于本地的生态重建和生态产业的良性发展。     

Juvenile Dispersal in the Colonies of Spermophilus majorand S. suslicus Ground Squirrels

Natural dispersal of young animals was studied in the colonies of Spermophilus major and S. suslicus ground squirrels in the Volga region. On the basis of data obtained, this process was modeled taking into account the spatial–ethological structure of the colonies. In both species, male dispersal was more active, whereas the degree of natal philopatry was higher in females. The results of the study do not confirm the aggression concept of juvenile dispersal and indicate that its causes are related to hereditary behavioral tendencies. These results are compared with data on juvenile dispersal in other species of the genus Spermophilus.     

三峡库区大农业的自然环境现状与预警分析

根据系统序化的观点，分析了库区大农业主要环境因子的具有代表性指标的数量和警式线，并进行了对比，发现它们都处地逆向演替或退化之中。这对三峡水库和库区大农业均十分有害。说明库区大农业的环境恶劣或恶化，应处于警式状态之中。其主要原因是长期向自然过度索取，以牺牲环境为代价，发展人口和物质的生产。建议进一步研究大农业及其环境的调控；把对环境的逐步补救和防止新的破坏结合起来，开展新的生态建设工程。     

Towards Sustainable Urban Environmental Management in Jiangyin city,East China

Abstract

Dramatic economic and social changes have taken place in Jiangyin city due to rapid and uneven urbanization and industrialization. The environmental degradation has followed driven by these changes since the 1980's. With the pressures and effects of environmental deterioration, the city has implemented environmental management to hold back the trends of negative environmental changes. From the viewpoint of systems, DPSER is a good model for urban environmental changes to understand the causes, pressure, state, effect, existing responses and future action strategies. We took Jiangyin city, a developed city in South Jiangsu province, East China, as an example, and analyzed the characteristics of environmental changes and urban responses using DPSER model. Some operational strategies have been put forward to direct the city environmental management towards a sustainable road step by step.     

山岳景区依托型乡村旅游就业吸附的空间特征

乡村振兴战略和乡村产业转型发展背景下,休闲旅游产业在乡村地域的兴起扰动了当前就业人口由乡村向城镇流动的宏观趋势,乡村旅游就业吸附正从微观上改变着城乡间劳动力空间流动的格局和过程。为科学理解乡村旅游就业吸附引起城乡劳动力空间流动发生变化的特征与机制,文章基于在浙晋山岳景区依托型乡村旅游地深度访谈的一手数据,分析了乡村旅游就业人口流动的空间分布特征、就业吸附的空间模式和过程机制。结果表明:①山岳景区依托型乡村旅游就业吸附呈现距离衰减和空间层级结构的特征,0~4 km为核心层、4~12 km为过渡层、12 km以上为外缘层;但在不同社会经济发展环境下该特征存在区域差异,欠发达地区乡村旅游就业吸附的空间集中性,比发达地区更加明显。②研究从城乡地域空间系统的视角,基于人口转移“推—拉”理论对乡村旅游就业人口空间流动特征和影响机制进行分析,发现山岳景区依托型乡村旅游就业吸附呈现以城镇、乡村为就业吸附极,以城乡接合部为吸附效用“分水岭”的空间模式;其中,连接城乡间的便捷交通是乡村旅游就业吸附实现的关键介质。③基于乡村旅游就业吸附空间适用性,文章针对性提出了“空间围栏效应”的概念。文章不仅从微观尺度上丰富了乡村旅游就业人口空间流动特征、过程、模式等的理论认识,而且对切实指导乡村地域在乡村旅游开发实践中理性理解乡村旅游的就业促进作用,提升乡村旅游开发规划和投资的效率具有积极意义。     

Ecophysiological Responses of Larix sibiricaLedeb. and Pinus sibiricaDu Tour Undergrowth to Climate Change

The effects of probable climate change—an increase in atmospheric CO₂(by two times), air temperature, precipitation—on CO₂exchange and temperature dependence of net photosynthesis in the larch and Siberian stone pine undergrowth formed in the light larch forests of West Siberia were studied in chambers with an artificial climate. The change of the aforementioned ecological factors caused an increase in the temperature optima of photosynthesis and the range of optimum temperatures (in the case of Siberian stone pine, to a slightly greater degree). Therefore, the ranges of both species may broaden, and the Siberian stone pine can expand to the north, displacing larch tree stands.     

旅游景区清洁生产与可持续发展研究——以扬州凤凰岛景区为例

本文就清洁生产及清洁生产在旅游景区的应用进行了阐述 ,着重分析了旅游景区清洁生产的主要内容 ,并以扬州凤凰岛景区为例 ,就该景区实施旅游清洁生产提出了具体方法和建议。     

Fuelwood assessment at micro-watershed level in Northeast Himalaya:a case study in Manipur,India

Fuelwood is one of the major sources of energy in the domestic sector across the rural areas,especially in the developing regions across the world.The Northeastern Himalayan state of Manipur is dominated by the tribal population that largely depends on fuelwood from the nearby forest area.The entire dependence on forests for energy resources is affecting the sustainability of the forest ecosystem in the region,thus indicating the livelihood conditions.Since land-use land-cover change is the key driver to the change in resource availability of a region,the present study has tried to analyze the landcover changes over a period 28 years.The second major component affecting resource availability is the increasing population pressure that leads to changes in the land dynamics,which directly affect the resource production.Based on the existing consumption pattern,the total consumption of fuelwood in the watershed ranges fiom a minimum of 289.992 tons/year to a maximum of 3545.719 tons/year with an average of 1561.956 tons/year in the year 2009 and simulated fuelwood consumption for the year 2021 is around 1469.260 tons/year.Nine different probable scenarios of resource are proposed to calculate the stress value that can be used by the policy-makers and planners for suitable policy implementation at the micro level with a complex social system.     

西部大开发中“西气东输”的储量保证与可持续发展

在西部大开发中 ,能源占有举足轻重的作用。我国西部的塔里木、准噶尔、吐 -哈、柴达木、鄂尔多斯、四川等六大含油气盆地含有丰富的天然气资源 ,储量大于 5 0 0× 10 8m3的 9个大气田中 ,西部就占 7个。中国天然气预测资源总量为 38× 10 12 m3,其中西部天然气预测资源量为 2 2 .4× 10 12 m3,占天然气预测资源总量的 5 8.9%。仅就西部的塔里木盆地而言 ,剩余可采储量为 3397× 10 8m3,按年产 12 0× 10 8m3计算 ,储采比为 2 8,塔里木盆地天然气有动态稳产 30年的储量保证 ,这对于“西气东输”工程的实施、西部经济的腾飞和可持续发展具有重要意义