Convergence of stakeholders’ environmental threat perceptions following mass coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef

Managing human use of ecosystems in an era of rapid environmental change requires an understanding of diverse stakeholders’ behaviors and perceptions to enable effective prioritization of actions to mitigate multiple threats. Specifically, research examining how threat perceptions are shared or diverge among stakeholder groups and how these can evolve through time is increasingly important. We investigated environmental threat perceptions related to Australia's Great Barrier Reef and explored their associations before and after consecutive years of mass coral bleaching. We used data from surveys of commercial fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents (n = 5254) conducted in 2013 and 2017. Threats perceived as most serious differed substantially among groups before bleaching but were strongly aligned after bleaching. Climate change became the most frequently reported threat by all stakeholder groups following the coral bleaching events, and perceptions of fishing and poor water quality as threats also ranked high. Within each of the 3 stakeholder groups, fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents, the prioritization of these 3 threats tended to diverge in 2013, but convergence occurred after bleaching. These results indicate an emergence of areas of agreement both within and across stakeholder groups. Changes in perceptions were likely influenced by high-profile environmental-disturbance events and media representations of threats. Our results provide insights into the plasticity of environmental-threat perceptions and highlight how their convergence in response to major events may create new opportunities for strategic public engagement and increasing support for management.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

Building a better baseline to estimate 160 years of avian population change and create historically informed conservation targets

Globally, anthropogenic land-cover change has been dramatic over the last few centuries and is frequently invoked as a major cause of wildlife population declines. Baseline data currently used to assess population trends, however, began well after major changes to the landscape. In the United States and Canada, breeding bird population trends are assessed by the North American Breeding Bird Survey, which began in the 1960s. Estimates of distribution and abundance prior to major habitat alteration would add historical perspective to contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets. We used a hindcasting framework to estimate change in distribution and abundance of 7 bird species in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (United States). After reconciling classification schemes of current and 1850s reconstructed land cover, we used multiscale species distribution models and hierarchical distance sampling models to predict spatially explicit densities in the modern and historical landscapes. We estimated that since the 1850s, White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis) and Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) populations, 2 species sensitive to fragmentation of oak woodlands and grasslands, declined by 93% and 97%, respectively. Five other species we estimated nearly stable or increasing populations, despite steep regional declines since the 1960s. Based on these estimates, we developed historically based conservation targets for amount of habitat, population, and density for each species. Hindcasted reconstructions provide historical perspective for assessing contemporary trends and allow for historically based conservation targets that can inform current management.     

Consequences of ignoring dispersal variation in network models for landscape connectivity

Habitat loss and fragmentation can negatively influence population persistence and biodiversity, but the effects can be mitigated if species successfully disperse between isolated habitat patches. Network models are the primary tool for quantifying landscape connectivity, yet in practice, an overly simplistic view of species dispersal is applied. These models often ignore individual variation in dispersal ability under the assumption that all individuals move the same fixed distance with equal probability. We developed a modeling approach to address this problem. We incorporated dispersal kernels into network models to determine how individual variation in dispersal alters understanding of landscape-level connectivity and implemented our approach on a fragmented grassland landscape in Minnesota. Ignoring dispersal variation consistently overestimated a population's robustness to local extinctions and underestimated its robustness to local habitat loss. Furthermore, a simplified view of dispersal underestimated the amount of habitat substructure for small populations but overestimated habitat substructure for large populations. Our results demonstrate that considering biologically realistic dispersal alters understanding of landscape connectivity in ecological theory and conservation practice.     

Trends in seabird breeding populations across the Great Barrier Reef

The Great Barrier Reef is an iconic ecosystem, known globally for its rich marine biodiversity that includes many thousands of tropical breeding seabirds. Despite indications of localized declines in some seabird species from as early as the mid-1990s, trends in seabird populations across the reef have never been quantified. With a long history of human impact and ongoing environmental change, seabirds are likely sentinels in this important ecosystem. Using 4 decades of monitoring data, we estimated site-specific trends for 9 seabird species from 32 islands and cays across the reef. Trends varied markedly among species and sites, but probable declines occurred at 45% of the 86 species-by-site combinations analyzed compared with increases at 14%. For 5 species, we combined site-specific trends into a multisite trend in scaled abundance, which revealed probable declines of Common Noddy (Anous stolidus), Sooty Tern (Onychoprion fuscatus), and Masked Booby (Sula dactylatra), but no long-term changes in the 2 most widely distributed species, Greater Crested Tern (Thalasseus bergii) and Brown Booby (Sula leucogaster). For Brown Booby, long-term stability largely resulted from increases at a single large colony on East Fairfax Island that offset declines at most other sites. Although growth of the Brown Booby population on East Fairfax points to the likely success of habitat restoration on the island, it also highlights a general vulnerability wherein large numbers of some species are concentrated at a small number of key sites. Identifying drivers of variation in population change across species and sites while ensuring long-term protection of key sites will be essential to securing the future of seabirds on the reef.     

Effects of protected areas on survival of threatened gibbons in China

Establishing protected areas (PAs) is an essential strategy to reduce biodiversity loss. However, many PAs do not provide adequate protection due to poor funding, inadequate staffing and equipment, and ineffective management. As part of China's recent economic growth, the Chinese government has significantly increased investment in nature reserves over the past 20 years, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate whether PAs can protect threatened species effectively. We compiled data from published literature on populations of gibbons (Hylobatidae), a threatened taxon with cultural significance, that occurred in Chinese reserves after 1980. We evaluated the ability of these PAs to maintain gibbon habitat and populations by comparing forest cover and human disturbance between reserves and their surrounding areas and modeling the impact of reserve characteristics on gibbon population trends. We also assessed the perspective of reserve staff concerning PA management effectiveness through an online survey. Reserves effectively protected gibbon habitat by reducing forest loss and human disturbance; however, half the reserves lost their gibbon populations since being established. Gibbons were more likely to survive in reserves established more recently, at higher elevation, with less forest loss and lower human impact, and that have been relatively well studied. A larger initial population size in the 1980s was positively associated with gibbon persistence. Although staff of all reserves reported increased investment and improved management over the past 20–30 years, no relationship was found between management effectiveness and gibbon population trends. We suggest early and emphatic intervention is critical to stop population decline and prevent extinction.     

A comparison of cat‐related risk perceptions and tolerance for outdoor cats in Florida and Hawaii

Risk perceptions and attitudes toward animals often explain tolerance for wildlife and management preferences. However, little is understood about how these relationships vary across different geographic regions and stakeholder groups. To address this gap in knowledge, we compared differences in acceptance capacity, risk perceptions, perceived enjoyment from outdoor cats, and experiences with outdoor cats among 3 groups (general public, conservation community, and animal‐welfare community) in Hawaii and Florida, two states with large conservation challenges. We combined independently collected data from Florida and Hawaii, to determine how perception of the risks presented by outdoor cats, group membership, and state of residence influenced people's tolerance for outdoor cats. Florida respondents were significantly more tolerant of outdoor cats and less concerned about cat‐related risks than Hawaii respondents (p < 0.05). In both states, animal‐welfare group members reported greater enjoyment seeing cats and perceived a smaller increase in the cat population and lower levels of risk than other groups (p < 0.05). All groups exhibited similar relationships between acceptance capacity and enjoyment and the perceived increase in the cat population. Our results suggest public tolerance for cats varied due to the influence of local or geographical concerns, but that strongly held beliefs, risk perceptions, and feelings about cats explained more of the variance in stakeholder tolerance.     

Feasibility of using high‐resolution satellite imagery to assess vertebrate wildlife populations

Although remote sensing has been used for >40 years to learn about Earth, use of very high‐resolution satellite imagery (VHR) (<1‐m resolution) has become more widespread over the past decade for studying wildlife. As image resolution increases, there is a need to understand the capabilities and limitations of this exciting new path in wildlife research. We reviewed studies that used VHR to examine remote populations of wildlife. We then determined characteristics of the landscape and the life history of species that made the studies amenable to use of satellite imagery and developed a list of criteria necessary for appropriate use of VHR in wildlife research. From 14 representative articles, we determined 3 primary criteria that must be met for a system and species to be appropriately studied with VHR: open landscape, target organism's color contrasts with the landscape, and target organism is of detectable size. Habitat association, temporal exclusivity, coloniality, landscape differentiation, and ground truthing increase the utility of VHR for wildlife research. There is an immediate need for VHR imagery in conservation research, particularly in remote areas of developing countries, where research can be difficult. For wildlife researchers interested in but unfamiliar with remote sensing resources and tools, understanding capabilities and current limitations of VHR imagery is critical to its use as a conservation and wildlife research tool.     

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long‐lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts’ judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts’ judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts’ assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers’ assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts’ decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species.