Environmental Impact on Coastal Waters off Rio De Janeiro Due to Sewage Discharge via Submarine Outfall

A survey was made in an area of 28 km² around the outlest of Ipanema's submarine outfall in order to evaluate the impact of the raw domestic sewage effluent on coastal waters. Nutrient concentrations, dissolved oxygen, particulate matter and other physico-chemical parameters were measured monthly for 15 months. Copper and lead concentrations were also determined for two of the samplings.

The outfall has been in operation for 18 years, and the parameters measured within the observation area appear to be in steady state. From the observed radial concentration gradients within the survey area, a real extension of the steady state distribution of particulate matter and of sewage-derived nitrogen was estimated. the stationary cloud of particulate organic matter was about 150 km². From its total inventory and the discharge rate, a mean residence time of the particles in the sea of 56 days is estimated, prior to their being decomposed by bacterial action or settling to the bottom. for sewage derived N (as ammonia or nitrate), the steady state amount (above background) covers an area of about 60 km² and leads to a mean residence time of 5 ± 1 days in the ocean. Phosphorus is readily absorbed by the phytoplankton.

The presence of temperature gradients established by cold upwelling waters controls the dispersion of the sewage material and the rising of the sewage plume to the surface waters.     

Connectivity Planning to Address Climate Change

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse‐filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present‐day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost–distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land‐use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land‐use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático     

Feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems

Robust ways to meet objectives of environmental conservation and social and economic development remain elusive. This struggle may in part be related to insufficient understanding of the feedbacks between conservation initiatives and social-ecological systems, specifically, the ways in which conservation initiatives result in social changes that have secondary effects on the environments targeted by conservation. To explore this idea, we sampled peer-reviewed articles addressing the social and environmental dimensions of conservation and coded each paper according to its research focus and characterization of these feedbacks. The majority of articles in our sample focused either on the effect of conservation initiatives on people (e.g., relocation, employment) or the effect of people on the environment (e.g., fragmentation, conservation efficacy of traditional management systems). Few studies in our sample empirically addressed both the social dynamics resulting from conservation initiatives and subsequent environmental effects. In many cases, one was measured and the other was discussed anecdotally. Among the studies that describe feedbacks between social and environmental variables, there was more evidence of positive (amplifying) feedbacks between social and environmental outcomes (i.e., undesirable social outcomes yielded undesirable environmental effects and desirable social outcomes yielded desirable environmental effects). The major themes within the sampled literature include conflict between humans and wild animals, social movements, adaptive comanagement, loss of traditional management systems, traditional ecological knowledge, human displacement and risks to livelihoods, and conservation and development. The narratives associated with each theme can serve as hypotheses for facilitating further discussion about conservation issues and for catalyzing future studies of the feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems.     

Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience

The cross-scale resilience model states that ecological resilience is generated in part from the distribution of functions within and across scales in a system. Resilience is a measure of a system's ability to remain organized around a particular set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures, known as a regime. We define scale as the geographic extent over which a process operates and the frequency with which a process occurs. Species can be categorized into functional groups that are a link between ecosystem processes and structures and ecological resilience. We applied the cross-scale resilience model to avian species in a grassland ecosystem. A species' morphology is shaped in part by its interaction with ecological structure and pattern, so animal body mass reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. We used the log-transformed rank-ordered body masses of breeding birds associated with grasslands to identify aggregations and discontinuities in the distribution of those body masses. We assessed cross-scale resilience on the basis of 3 metrics: overall number of functional groups, number of functional groups within an aggregation, and the redundancy of functional groups across aggregations. We assessed how the loss of threatened species would affect cross-scale resilience by removing threatened species from the data set and recalculating values of the 3 metrics. We also determined whether more function was retained than expected after the loss of threatened species by comparing observed loss with simulated random loss in a Monte Carlo process. The observed distribution of function compared with the random simulated loss of function indicated that more functionality in the observed data set was retained than expected. On the basis of our results, we believe an ecosystem with a full complement of species can sustain considerable species losses without affecting the distribution of functions within and across aggregations, although ecological resilience is reduced. We propose that the mechanisms responsible for shaping discontinuous distributions of body mass and the nonrandom distribution of functions may also shape species losses such that local extinctions will be nonrandom with respect to the retention and distribution of functions and that the distribution of function within and across aggregations will be conserved despite extinctions.     

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

Land trust evaluation of progress toward conservation goals

In the United States local land trusts preserve and conserve land to protect water quality and supply, farmlands, habitat for native plants and animals, areas of cultural or historical significance, and scenic views. We surveyed the 24 active, local land trusts in North Carolina (U.S.A.) to determine how they report progress toward attaining such conservation goals. Twenty-two land trusts responded to our survey. Of these, eight reported developing specific conservation goals for all of the properties they protect, five identified conservation targets on all properties, and two reported monitoring biological indicators on all of their protected properties. On the basis of these results, we believe most of the land trusts surveyed could not determine whether they were meeting conservation goals because most did not identify explicit, measurable goals and monitor progress toward them. Instead they reported success in terms of the amount of land protected and money raised. We think this is a lost opportunity for land trusts to build sound approaches to environmental management, engage the public, entice new donors, and attain funding for additional conservation activities. We propose conservation professionals help local land trusts adopt the Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation, a framework developed by a consortium of international conservation organizations, to develop conservation goals and measure whether the goals are achieved.     

Costs of expanding the network of protected areas as a response to climate change in the Cape Floristic Region

The expansion of protected areas is a critical component of strategies to promote the continued existence of biodiversity (i.e., life at all levels of biological organization) as climate changes, but scientific, social, and economic uncertainties associated with climate change are some of the major obstacles preventing such expansion. New models of climate change and species distribution and new methods of conservation planning now make it possible to explore the uncertainties associated with climate changes and species responses. Yet few reliable estimates of the costs of expanding protected areas and methods for determining these costs exist, largely because of the many (and uncertain) determinants of these costs. We developed a cost-accounting model to estimate the range in costs of various options for expanding protected areas and to explore the variables that drive these costs. Model development was informed by an existing plan to expand protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to address species conservation under a scenario of climate change. The 50-year present value of total costs varied from US$260 million ($1077/ha) for an off-reserve option that involves agreements with landowners and no compensation of forgone production and associated revenue to $1020 million ($4228/ha) for an on-reserve option that involves land acquisition and protection. The costs of acquiring land or compensating landowners for forgone production and development opportunities were the major drivers of the total costs across all options because most of the area identified in the protected-area expansion plan consisted of urban and high-quality agricultural lands. Total costs were also affected by changes in protected area extent and discount rate. Model-generated outputs such as these may be useful for informing implementation strategies and the allocation of future efforts in monitoring, data collection, and model development.     

Considering extinction of dependent species during translocation, ex situ conservation, and assisted migration of threatened hosts

Translocation, introduction, reintroduction, and assisted migrations are species conservation strategies that are attracting increasing attention, especially in the face of climate change. However, preventing the extinction of the suite of dependent species whose host species are threatened is seldom considered, and the effects on dependent species of moving threatened hosts are unclear. There is no published guidance on how to decide whether to move species, given this uncertainty. We examined the dependent-host system of 4 disparate taxonomic groups: insects on the feather-leaf banksia (Banksia brownii), montane banksia (B. montana), and Stirling Range beard heath (Leucopogon gnaphalioides); parasites of wild cats; mites and ticks on Duvaucel's gecko (Hoplodactylus duvaucelii) and tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus); and internal coccidian parasites of Cirl Bunting (Emberiza cirlus) and Hihi (Notiomystis cincta). We used these case studies to demonstrate a simple process for use in species- and community-level assessments of efforts to conserve dependents with their hosts. The insects dependent on Stirling Range beard heath and parasites on tigers (Panthera tigris) appeared to represent assemblages that would not be conserved by ex situ host conservation. In contrast, for the cases of dependent species we examined involving a single dependent species (internal parasites of birds and the mite Geckobia naultina on Duvaucel's gecko), ex situ conservation of the host species would also conserve the dependent species. However, moving dependent species with their hosts may be insufficient to maintain viable populations of the dependent species, and additional conservation strategies such as supplementing populations may be needed.     

Predicting species distributions from samples collected along roadsides

Predictive models of species distributions are typically developed with data collected along roads. Roadside sampling may provide a biased (nonrandom) sample; however, it is currently unknown whether roadside sampling limits the accuracy of predictions generated by species distribution models. We tested whether roadside sampling affects the accuracy of predictions generated by species distribution models by using a prospective sampling strategy designed specifically to address this issue. We built models from roadside data and validated model predictions at paired locations on unpaved roads and 200 m away from roads (off road), spatially and temporally independent from the data used for model building. We predicted species distributions of 15 bird species on the basis of point-count data from a landbird monitoring program in Montana and Idaho (U.S.A.). We used hierarchical occupancy models to account for imperfect detection. We expected predictions of species distributions derived from roadside-sampling data would be less accurate when validated with data from off-road sampling than when it was validated with data from roadside sampling and that model accuracy would be differentially affected by whether species were generalists, associated with edges, or associated with interior forest. Model performance measures (kappa, area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot, and true skill statistic) did not differ between model predictions of roadside and off-road distributions of species. Furthermore, performance measures did not differ among edge, generalist, and interior species, despite a difference in vegetation structure along roadsides and off road and that 2 of the 15 species were more likely to occur along roadsides. If the range of environmental gradients is surveyed in roadside-sampling efforts, our results suggest that surveys along unpaved roads can be a valuable, unbiased source of information for species distribution models.     

Effects of tour boats on dolphin activity examined with sensitivity analysis of Markov chains

In Patagonia, Argentina, watching dolphins, especially dusky dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obscurus), is a new tourist activity. Feeding time decreases and time to return to feeding after feeding is abandoned and time it takes a group of dolphins to feed increase in the presence of boats. Such effects on feeding behavior may exert energetic costs on dolphins and thus reduce an individual's survival and reproductive capacity or maybe associated with shifts in distribution. We sought to predict which behavioral changes modify the activity pattern of dolphins the most. We modeled behavioral sequences of dusky dolphins with Markov chains. We calculated transition probabilities from one activity to another and arranged them in a stochastic matrix model. The proportion of time dolphins dedicated to a given activity (activity budget) and the time it took a dolphin to resume that activity after it had been abandoned (recurrence time) were calculated. We used a sensitivity analysis of Markov chains to calculate the sensitivity of the time budget and the activity-resumption time to changes in behavioral transition probabilities. Feeding-time budget was most sensitive to changes in the probability of dolphins switching from traveling to feeding behavior and of maintaining feeding behavior. Thus, an increase in these probabilities would be associated with the largest reduction in the time dedicated to feeding. A reduction in the probability of changing from traveling to feeding would also be associated with the largest increases in the time it takes dolphins to resume feeding. To approach dolphins when they are traveling would not affect behavior less because presence of the boat may keep dolphins from returning to feeding. Our results may help operators of dolphin-watching vessels minimize negative effects on dolphins.