中国碳排放强度的时空演进及跃迁机制

面对气候变化所带来的生存危机以及环境治理的复杂状况,对中国碳排放强度时空演进的动态监测与预警治理的研究是实现碳排放强度下降目标的关键。文章测算1997—2015年中国大陆30个省区碳排放强度的空间面板数据,采用探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)方法对中国碳排放强度的空间相关性、集聚特征及其时空跃迁进行空间统计分析,借助分位数回归与时空跃迁嵌套模型,揭示在时间和空间推移的双重作用下中国各省区碳排放强度的时空跃迁机制。研究结果表明:(1)中国30个省区的碳排放强度在时空分布上并不是完全随机状态,各个省区碳排放强度之间具有显著的空间相关性特征,碳排放强度的变动趋势会受到其相临近省区碳排放强度的影响,省域间的碳排放强度在空间分布上呈现"集聚"与"分异"并存的时空演进特征。(2)中国碳排放强度空间集聚趋势增强,具有高度的凝固性和较低的流动性,10个高碳排放强度省区碳排放强度的稳定性将成为制约中国碳排放强度整体跃迁的重点省区,相关省区的跃迁性将成为驱动中国碳排放强度整体跃迁的关键省区。(3)各省区的碳排放强度空间集聚过程中存在时空跃迁的驱动模式和制约模式,分位数回归模型能够很好地解释各驱动因素对碳排放强度时空跃迁的驱动机制,不同响应阶段的驱动因素的分位数与碳排放强度时空跃迁类型之间具有很强的嵌套性。(4)根据各省区碳排放强度时空演进及其跃迁机制的分析结果,进一步提出加强对关键省区碳排放强度的有效监测与治理,加大碳排放的约束力度等差异化的碳减排调控措施。     

Determinants of workers’ attitude toward low-carbon technology adoption: empirical evidence from Chinese firms

As the main contribution of China’s carbon emissions, low-carbon production in industrial firms becomes an inevitable choice, and industrial firm employees’ attitudes on low-carbon new technology directly influence the results of low-carbon production. Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology model, structural equation modeling was used to analyze the main factors influencing firm staff to accept low-carbon new technology. The study reveals that the employee’s social impact, performance expectation, effort expectations and convenient conditions, and employee characteristics are all main factors affecting their acceptance attitudes on low-carbon new technology. And social influence has the largest effect on employees’ acceptance attitudes toward low-carbon new technology. Accordingly, relevant policy recommendations are put forward for the future research direction.     

中国出口隐含碳排放影响因素研究——基于反事实法的分析

中间消耗的"消耗规模与部门构成"是影响中国出口碳排放的重要因素。基于世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)1995—2015年数据,在部门归类与形式变换基础上,本文选取"单位产出碳排放量"、"完全消耗系数"与"出口值"为中国出口隐含碳排放的影响因子,构建"因子变动—反事实构造—效果评价"分析框架,借助规模指数与结构指数对影响因子的变化动态进行描述,并通过反事实构造对"因子变动"的影响效果进行评价。研究发现:"单位产出碳排放量"规模指数单调递减,Spearman偏度系数为右偏态,说明相比于意愿产出而言,非意愿产出"碳排放量"具有内在的规模不经济;"中间消耗"规模指数与碳偏向性指数在截面上始终处于高位水平,时序上出现了显著的递增趋势,说明中国单位出口值的中间消耗量偏大,消耗投入在结构上偏向于高碳部门,与"技术前沿国"美国存在显著"技术差距";"出口值"规模指数呈现"平缓扩张——快速攀升——V型震荡"的阶段性特征,结构指数经历了以基期2002年为顶点、"先下降、后上升、再平稳"的变化轨迹,说明"出口值"作为最具弹性的影响因子,受"亚洲金融危机"、"加入世界贸易组织"与"美国次债危机"等外部冲击的影响明显,对出口碳排放的推动作用存在伸缩性与阶段性差异。从"因子变动"影响效果来看,中国产出、中间消耗与出口的部门构成具有内生关联,均显著偏向于高碳部门,对出口隐含碳排放增长产生了叠加性的"正向"扩张效应。基于此,本文认为,总量控制与结构优化的视角需从产品环节向中间消耗环节扩展,现阶段应深化要素市场改革,加速要素禀赋升级,借力要素价格机制与差别化产业规制政策,从上游环节抑制出口碳排放的输入来源。     

三峡库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径的实证研究

随着我国经济发展和扶贫成效的显现,老区、山区、民族地区和移民库区等集中连片的特殊贫困区已经成为我国当前精准扶贫的主战场。由于面临生产资料匮乏、生态环境恶化和地质灾害频发等恶劣环境,库区移民贫困问题已成为新时期扶贫攻坚最难啃的"硬骨头"。因此,开展库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径研究具有重要的现实意义。基于对库区移民贫困现状的扎根理论分析,本文提出了分析农户生计的新框架。在此基础上,本文以三峡库区26个县(区)为研究对象,随机抽取4县(区)796户移民作为样本,首先,采用灰色关联分析法和熵权法对库区移民主要致贫因子进行挖掘;接着,采用PLS-SEM模型分析影响库区移民生计状况的关键因子和关键路径。研究表明:(1)三峡库区移民贫困现象仍很严重,患病、劳动能力弱和失地是移民致贫的三大主因。三峡库区仍有175.94万人生活在贫困线以下,三大致贫原因依次是:因病致贫26.49%、因劳动能力弱致贫22.10%和失地致贫21.65%。(2)心理资本可有效促进移民其他资本效能的发挥,对生计状况存在着显著的直接效应和间接效应。(3)在影响生计状况的四类资本中,人力资本对库区移民生计状况影响最大。基于以上发现,本文提出了实现库区移民精准脱贫的政策建议:(1)国家应高度重视三峡库区移民贫困问题,大力开展精准扶贫;(2)增加心理干预措施以提高移民心理资本存量,帮助移民摆脱心理贫困;(3)开展劳动力技能培训,提高库区移民人力资本水平。     

过硫酸钾去除水中的TCE

以地水中的氯代烃污染物三氯乙烯(TCE)为目标污染物,以过硫酸钾溶液为氧化剂,探讨了不同条件下过硫酸钾对TCE的去除效果。实验结果表明,在40℃,过硫酸钾初始浓度为2.43 g/L条件下,反应2 h后,TCE的去除率就可达到96.8%;过硫酸钾对TCE的去除符合一级反应动力学方程,速率常数(K)为1.3364 h-1,半衰期(t1/2)为0.51 h;过硫酸钾对TCE的去除速率在pH为中性附近时最大,其后无论pH升高或降低去除速率均减小;受温度和pH影响较明显,并且反应温度越高,受pH的影响越明显;随离子强度的增加而减小;反应活化能为119.6 kJ/mol;过硫酸钾溶于水生成过硫酸根离子(S2O28-),S2O28-会进一步生成硫酸根自由基(SO4-.),在碱性条件下,SO4-.与OH-反应会进一步生成羟基自由基(.OH)。过硫酸钾对于TCE的去除主要源自SO4-.和.OH的强氧化性。     

环境因素对长寿湖底泥释磷影响的模拟实验研究

肥水养殖显著增加了长寿湖底泥中的磷含量。为了解肥水养殖积累在湖泊底泥中磷的释放情况,以长寿湖大坝口枯水期底泥为实验材料,模拟研究了不同环境条件(上覆水pH、温度、DO含量和扰动)下湖泊底泥的释磷特征。结果表明,在弱碱性条件下,底泥释磷量随上覆水pH的升高而升高;温度升高有利于底泥磷的释放,温度每升高5℃,第21天时底泥释磷量增大0.0045～0.0074 mg/L;DO含量降低有利于底泥中铁/铝结合态磷的释放;扰动对底泥磷的释放没有明显影响。研究表明,网箱养殖增加了底泥中的有机磷含量,促进有机磷向无机磷转化,增大了底泥中磷的释放风险。     

唐山排污权交易模式浅析

对开展排污权交易的目的、意义、关键因素进行了分析,对唐山排污权交易的工作进程以及交易指标、交易主体、交易程序、指导价格、申购数量、交易范围、优先及限制条件等模式特点进行了阐述,以期为同类型城市开展排污权交易提供参考。     

大学生英语口语交流障碍的心理因素及克服办法

目前大学生的英语口语表达能力总体很差,在口语交流上也出现各种障碍,其原因除学生英语学习能力较差以外,态度问题、动机偏差、缺乏自信、不耐挫折、缺乏热情、过于紧张、性格内向等心理因素也起着关键的作用。对于大学生英语口语交流存在的障碍,可以通过激发兴趣、心理暗示、教师鼓励、减少心理压力、结交外国朋友等有效方法,指导学生进行口语训练,提高学生口语水平。     

Molecular and physiological characterization of fluoroquinolone resistance in relation to uropathogenicity among Escherichia coli isolates isolated from Wenyu River, China

Increasing antibacterial resistance and pathogenicity in the environment is of growing concern due to its potential human risk. In the present study, 236 Escherichia coli isolates were collected from Wenyu River in China on drugless (48 isolates) and quinolone-containing plates (189 isolates). Their minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) were determined ranging from 0.125 μg mL⁻¹ to 128 μg mL⁻¹. Mutation points related to fluoroquinolone resistance were observed at S83 to L and D87 to N or Y in the GyrA subunit and S80 to R or I and E84 to G in the ParC subunit. Generally, MICs of LEV and GAT are dependent on the patterns of these mutation points. The profile with three mutation points was related to LEV-resistant E. coli isolates, and the (S83L, D87N + S80I) mutation profile was most prevalent (65.7%) in LEV-resistant isolates, while a large proportion of isolates, even those with three mutation points, were susceptive to GAT. The incidence of virulence factors in LEV-resistant isolates (44.7%, 59/132) was much higher than in nonresistant isolates (23.1%, 24/104) (χ² = 11.925, 1° of freedom, p < 0.001) indicating that fluoroquinolone-resistant E. coli would pose a potential risk. A similar distribution was also found in isolates resistant to GAT (χ² = 7.843, 1° of freedom, p = 0.0079).     

Identification of relevant micropollutants in Austrian municipal wastewater and their behaviour during wastewater treatment

The European Union has defined environmental quality standards (EQSs) for surface waters for priority substances and several other pollutants. Furthermore national EQSs for several chemicals are valid in Austria. The study investigated the occurrence of these compounds in municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents. In a first screening of 15 WWTPs relevant substances were identified, which subsequently were monitored in 9 WWTPs over 1 year (every 2 months). Out of 77 substances or groups of substances (including more than 90 substances) 13 were identified as potentially relevant in respect to water pollution and subjected to the monitoring, whereas most other compounds were detected in concentrations far below the respective EQS for surface waters and therefore not further considered. The preselected 13 compounds for monitoring were cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), diuron, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), di(ethyl-hydroxyl)phthalate (DEHP), tributyltin compounds (TBT), nonylphenoles (NP), adsorbable organic halogens (AOX) and the complexing agents ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) as well as nitrilotriacetic acid (NTA). In the effluents of WWTPs the concentrations of the priority substances Cd, NP, TBT and diuron frequently exceeded the respective EQS, whereas the concentrations for DEHP and Ni were below the respective EQS. The effluent concentrations for AOX, EDTA, NTA, Cu, Se and Zn frequently are in the range or above the Austrian EQS for surface waters. Besides diuron and EDTA all compounds are removed at least partially during wastewater treatment and for most substances the removal via the excess sludge is the major removal pathway. For the 13 compounds which were monitored in WWTP effluents population equivalent specific discharges were calculated. Since for many compounds no or only few information is available, these population equivalent specific discharges can be used to assess emissions from municipal WWTPs to surface waters as well as to make a first assessment of the impact of a discharge on surface waters chemical status. Comparing discharges and river pollution on a load basis, the influence of diffuse sources becomes obvious and therefore should also be taken into consideration in river management.