Safety Assurance of Foods: Risk Management Depends on Good Science but it is not a Scientific Activity

We make many decisions in our livesand we weigh the benefits against thedrawbacks. Our decisions are based on whatbenefits are most important to us and whatdrawbacks we are willing to accept. Decisionsabout what we eat are made in the same way; butwhen it comes to safety, our decisions areusually made more carefully. Food containsnatural chemicals and it can come into contactwith many natural and artificial substancesduring harvest, production, processing, andpreparation. They include microorganisms,chemicals, either naturally present or producedby cooking, environmental contaminants, andpesticides. Since the chance of being harmed bythese potential hazards is called risk, riskanalysis might be better termed as the scienceof safety, because risk management is anessential part of it. It would, however, bedifficult and shortsighted to maintain thatquestions about risk and safety can have nomoral dimension. Risk and safety become mattersof moral concern when they raise furtherquestions about responsibility, accountability,and justifiability. The question of risk cannotbe ignored in any ethical investigation ofgenetic engineering, novel foods, animalwelfare, and individual choices. However, foodis more than metabolic fuel. It hasphysiological, psychological, social, cultural,and aesthetic associations that merge to form agestalt that people endanger and maintain. Thecontribution of any food towards anindividual's well being is as complex as theindividual himself. In this context, thebenefits of consuming food that containshazards may outweigh the risk.     

Formal and informal recovery of recyclables in Mexicali, Mexico: handling alternatives

The purpose of this paper is to review the case of a Mexican municipality in this field and highlight and identify critical gaps to be addressed. The paper seeks to explore intersectorial partnerships as a means to achieve sustainable solid waste management systems. Its point of departure is that, the highest level of service and maximum benefit is gained when a municipality sees its solid waste management mandates and handicaps clearly, uses the strengths of the other actors. The four main types of actors considered in this paper are: the municipal government, the formal private (commercial) sector, and the informal sector, which, includes individuals, small entrepreneurs, and micro-enterprises already working with discarded materials or having the potential to do so. Community based organizations (CBOs), either idealistically motivated or working for their own welfare, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), usually in pursuit of their own idealistic goals are also a part of the informal sector.     

天文灾害学刍议(Ⅱ)——天文灾害学研究的意义及其进展

简述了开展天文灾害学研究的意义。已有研究表明 ,一些天文因素对许多自然灾害的孕育有调制作用 ,对一些自然灾害的发生有诱发、触发的作用 ,深入开展天文灾害学研究有理论意义和应用价值。同时作者简要综述了这一交叉研究领域近些年的进展情况。     

中国建筑安全现状及展望

对我国建筑行业安全状况作了概述；对造成建筑行业事故高发的原因进行了分析；展望了今后建筑安全的发展状况并提出了建议。     

VALIDATION OF POLITICAL SIMULATION MODELS -WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT. The critical role of political processes in water resource projects has recently been placed in a new perspective [Hall, 1970]. The “political hassle” period of institutional interaction which serves to resolve political conflicts over such aspects as organizational growth and survival, responsibility for economic liabilities, and responsibility for economic benefits, requires systematic analysis in order to improve our capability to implement water projects. Failure to properly assess the political aspects of a proposed water project may result in extensive delays with significant economic losses. The complexities associated with water use and re-use have created the need for new institutional arrangements which can more effectively function to implement policies and programs. One tool which has recently become available for the research investigator concerned with institutional interactions and political processes associated with water resource projects is the technique of computer simulation of such institutional interaction. In theory, this new approach will enable the investigator to assess the political feasibility or political acceptability of a proposed water project given existing institutional structures. Furthermore, the investigator has the opportunity to experiment with new and innovative institutional arrangements which may in turn enhance the political acceptability of a proposed project. The specific material presented within this paper reports upon the validation of an existing computer simulation model designed to replicate political interactions in resource allocation problems-including water resource problems. This validation effort is done by taking an actual water problem and comparing what the political simulation models predicts in terms of political outcomes with what actually takes place. The case study in question is the formulation and legislative development of the Michigan Bond Issue for Water Pollution Control.     

论人的失误

人的失误所造成的事故占事故总数的７０—８０％，研究人的失误对控制伤亡事故的发生具有重要意义。为此，分析人的行为模式，论述人失误的原因，并对控制人失误的方法进行了探讨，认为减少人失误的根本途径是大力倡导安全文化，提高操作者的安全素质。     

基于链式中介效应的辱虐管理与安全绩效关系研究

为明晰辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠对安全绩效的作用机理,在文献研究和开放式访谈的基础上,建立四者关系的假设模型。采用辱虐管理量表、自我损耗量表、工作倦怠量表和安全绩效量表对389名员工进行调查,通过SPSS和AMOS进行相关分析和中介效应检验验证假设模型。结果表明,辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠两两之间均呈显著正相关,而辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠三者均与安全绩效呈显著负相关。辱虐管理不仅可以直接预测安全绩效,还可以通过3条路径间接影响安全绩效:通过自我损耗的独立中介作用;通过工作倦怠的独立中介作用;通过自我损耗和工作倦怠的链式中介作用。有效干预辱虐管理、自我损耗和工作倦怠,能提升安全绩效水平,减少人因失误。     

基于GIS的祁连山生态敏感性评价

以遥感数据为基础数据源研究祁连山的生态环境特点和主要生态问题,并结合客观条件及评价因子的选取需具有代表性、可计量性的原则,选取气候舒适度指数、土地沙化指数、土地盐碱化指数、水土流失指数和生物多样性指数共5项评价因子对祁连山生态敏感性进行综合评价。运用GIS技术在单因子评价的基础上,再利用空间叠加分析功能和重分类工具进行多因子综合评价,划分5类生态敏感等级,由大到小依次为高敏感性、较高敏感性、中等敏感性、较低敏感性和低敏感性。结果表明,祁连山生态敏感性空间分异明显,高敏感性地区主要分布在祁连山西部地区,低敏感性地区主要分布在东部地区。生态敏感性总体都处于中等偏低的水平上,其中,中等以下的地区占研究区总面积的69.7 8%,高敏感性、较高敏感性占研究区的30.2 2%,表明对于祁连山的生态保护还是卓有成效的,但一些地区还存在不少问题,导致生态敏感性偏高。因此,未来对于祁连山生态环境保护任务依然艰巨,对于高敏感性区域的西部地区应该进行严格保护和生态治理,对于低敏感性区域的东部地区要持续加强生态保护,减少人为活动影响。     

安全科学学及其应用探讨

为使安全科学学进一步具体化,明确阐述了安全科学学的定义、主要内容和可能的应用方面。研究表明:安全科学学是以安全科学为直接研究对象的科学;安全科学学的主要内容有安全科学的基本问题、基础理论和构建分类系统3个主要方面;安全科学的基本问题有基本概念、研究对象等10个,安全科学的基础理论主要有线性、非线性事故致因理论2类,根据安全科学的基本问题、基础理论构建出来的安全科学新分类系统由4个二级、13个三级及其下若干四级及五级分支学科组成。安全科学学对安全学科建设、安全实务都起着具体的支撑作用。     

基于机器学习的侵财类案件危害程度分析

为了进一步分析侵财类案件的危害程度,以抢劫、抢夺和盗窃3种典型侵财类案件为例,利用ZS市2008—2014年的犯罪数据与统计年鉴数据,提取“发案时间”“发案地域”“选择时机”“选择处所”“选择对象”“人均地区生产总值”“职工月平均工资”7个特征,建立基于多种机器学习分类算法的侵财类案件危害程度预测模型,并进一步开展预测结果的分析研究。研究结果表明:梯度提升决策树（GBDT）算法性能最优,危害程度预测准确率达到了0.88;在抢劫案和抢夺案中,一般和重大的案件容易发生在繁华地带,特大案件容易发生在其他处所;侵财类案件倾向于在工作日的城区中发生,发生的危害程度大多为一般;提出的侵财类案件危害程度预测模型可为侵财类案件的风险评估及警务资源优化配置工作提供方法支持。