1976-2005年唐山地区降水变化规律及干旱预测

利用唐山市1976-2005年各县年降水序列,分析了该市降水的空间分布规律和时间变化特点。采用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,对各县分别建立了GM（1,1）模型,进行未来25年唐山市各站的干旱年预测。利用残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验对各模型分别进行了精度检验。结果表明,预测模型精度较高,可以对唐山市各县未来的干旱年进行预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

吸附增效低温等离子体法去除甲苯废气的研究

采用150Hz中频高压交流电源作为低温等离子体发生源,选用典型的微孔γ-Al2O3球形颗粒吸附剂(以下简称γ-Al2O3)作为等离子体反应器填充材料,协同低温等离子体法催化降解甲苯废气。考察了在不同条件下,γ-Al2O3的甲苯吸脱附效果和吸附增效低温等离子体法的甲苯去除效果。结果表明,甲苯降解反应主要发生在γ-Al2O3的表面,甲苯的去除率在一定的浓度范围内与γ-Al2O3表面吸附的甲苯量成正比关系;填充γ-Al2O3有利于提高甲苯去除率及等离子体反应器能量利用率;γ-Al2O3对臭氧的降解表现出一定的促进作用。     

三峡库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径的实证研究

随着我国经济发展和扶贫成效的显现,老区、山区、民族地区和移民库区等集中连片的特殊贫困区已经成为我国当前精准扶贫的主战场。由于面临生产资料匮乏、生态环境恶化和地质灾害频发等恶劣环境,库区移民贫困问题已成为新时期扶贫攻坚最难啃的"硬骨头"。因此,开展库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径研究具有重要的现实意义。基于对库区移民贫困现状的扎根理论分析,本文提出了分析农户生计的新框架。在此基础上,本文以三峡库区26个县(区)为研究对象,随机抽取4县(区)796户移民作为样本,首先,采用灰色关联分析法和熵权法对库区移民主要致贫因子进行挖掘;接着,采用PLS-SEM模型分析影响库区移民生计状况的关键因子和关键路径。研究表明:(1)三峡库区移民贫困现象仍很严重,患病、劳动能力弱和失地是移民致贫的三大主因。三峡库区仍有175.94万人生活在贫困线以下,三大致贫原因依次是:因病致贫26.49%、因劳动能力弱致贫22.10%和失地致贫21.65%。(2)心理资本可有效促进移民其他资本效能的发挥,对生计状况存在着显著的直接效应和间接效应。(3)在影响生计状况的四类资本中,人力资本对库区移民生计状况影响最大。基于以上发现,本文提出了实现库区移民精准脱贫的政策建议:(1)国家应高度重视三峡库区移民贫困问题,大力开展精准扶贫;(2)增加心理干预措施以提高移民心理资本存量,帮助移民摆脱心理贫困;(3)开展劳动力技能培训,提高库区移民人力资本水平。     

爆破荷载作用下隧道中隔岩稳定性研究

为研究爆破动力荷载作用下隧道中隔岩稳定性评价标准,以福州地铁2号线为工程背景,结合强度折减动力分析法和数值模拟,同时考虑中隔岩塑性区贯通、位移超过规范值、计算不收敛3种判据,综合对隧道中隔岩进行动力安全系数分析,研究隧道不同净距、不同开挖进尺后行洞隧道爆破开挖对隧道整体安全系数的影响。研究结果表明:中隔岩塑性区贯通时特征点位移和规范中位移限值较为接近,可共同作为评价中隔岩稳定性的最终评价标准;隧道净距越大、进尺越小,隧道整体安全系数越高;对围岩质量较差且净距小于1.6 m的双线隧道进行爆破开挖时,建议将爆破进尺控制在2 m以内。研究结果可为类似工程提供理论参考依据。     

超高浓度萘系磺酸染料中间体废液资源化

本文介绍了胺盐萃取回收率液中萘磺酸染料中间体的方法，回收率达９５％以上，回收浓缩液工艺套用，１０ｔ／ｄ废液量的资源化年净效益达５８０万元，投资费用两个月即可全部收回，采用Ｌａｎｇｍｕｉｒ等温方程描述体系中萃取剂用量，待萃物含量和萃取率的关系，使工艺参数的确立和工程设计完全处理指导之下。     

信息技术在农田施肥管理中的应用

综述了目前国外精准农业的主要技术理论,着重围绕其在农田施肥管理中的应用,讨论基于GPS、GIS应用的农田施肥管理系统的开发和应用,提出精准农业技术理论在我国农田施肥管理中的应用设想。     

吐氏酸废液资源化技术的研究

研究了用化学萃取法回收吐氏酸废母液中染料中间体的多种影响因素,静态试验表明：通过萃取工艺,吐氏酸废母液中的染料中间体回收率可达９０％以上,萃余液中ＣＯＤｃｒ在５００～３０００ｍｇ／Ｌ之间;该工艺可使废母液中的回收物浓缩５～１０倍,根据静态试验得出的工艺参数,进行了动态模拟试验,取得了与静态试验非常接近的结果,为以后的示范工程提供了可靠的设计依据。     

ECONOMIC AND WATER QUALITY EFFECTS OF VARIABLE AND UNIFORM APPLICATION OF NITROGEN1

ABSTRACT: Nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates for achieving optimum crop yields often vary within a field due to spatial variability in soil moisture and nitrogen content and other crop growth factors. When there is substantial within-field variability in these factors, uniform application of N (UAN) may not be economically efficient in terms of maximizing net return because N is likely to be over-applied in some areas and under-applied in other areas of the field. In addition, over-application can adversely affect water quality. A sample of fields in a Midwestern agricultural watershed is used to test for statistically significant differences in N application rates, crop yields, surface and ground water quality and net returns between UAN and variable application of N (VAN) for four cropping systems. Profitability and water quality benefits of VAN are sensitive to the distribution of soil types within a field. Water quality effects and profitability of UAN and VAN vary with cropping systems. VAN is not uniformly superior to UAN in terms of increasing net returns and improving water quality for the farming systems and watershed evaluated in this study.