基于过程的农户土地利用行为模型的设计与模拟研究

通过基于过程的方式来研究农户决策行为已经成为学者们关注的焦点问题之一。论文依据Belief、Desire、Intention（BDI）决策框架,设计基于过程的农户土地利用行为决策模型。模型以农户实际决策而非效益最大化作为行为模拟的假设,对陕西省米脂县高渠乡的典型村落马蹄洼和姜兴庄土地利用变化进行模拟。模拟可以再现农户决策的动态性和反馈性,展示农户学习行为的过程及其影响,揭示农户决策变化的内在机理。利用该模型,对3 种情景下农户土地利用行为进行模拟,对比分析3 种情景的优劣,指出政府未来应当在降低市场风险、规范合作社经营、提高市场预测方面多做工作。文章最后对该种方法的优点和不足进行总结,并指出今后需要加强的方向。     

基于面向对象的海岸带土地利用信息提取研究

针对海岸带复杂多样的土地利用信息,选取山东省乳山市海岸带为研究区域,运用 Landsat TM遥感影像数据,基于面向对象分类方法,利用不同地物的光谱、形状、纹理和空间关系等特征,通过多尺度分割、隶属度函数法和标准最邻近分类法提取研究区土地利用信息,并对分类结果进行精度评估。结果表明：①隶属度函数法和标准最邻近分类法结合,提取出乳山市海岸带12 种土地利用类型信息,很好地区分了盐田和养殖水面、林地和园地,可提取出主要的道路和河流等细长线状地物;②将提取结果与最大似然法对比,面向对象分类方法提取精度达到82.50%,Kappa系数为0.809 1,分别比最大似然法提高了11.44%和0.105 5,很好地避免“同物异谱”和“异物同谱”对分类精度造成的影响,有效地避免了“椒盐”现象。面向对象分类方法提取中分辨率遥感影像精度较高,为海岸带土地利用信息的快速、准确提取提供了有效的技术手段。     

两种光照生境下4种常绿阔叶树的单位叶面积干重、光合能力与化学防御物质含量比较

亚热带常绿阔叶林下分布着可塑性强的耐荫植物,其叶片应对外界干扰的防御对策至少有物理性防御和化学性防御两种,这两种防御代价在一定的昆虫取食压力下在理论上应该存在权衡.为检验这种权衡是否普遍存在,分别测定了重庆缙云山4个常绿物种——光叶山矾(Symplocos lancifolia)、四川山矾(S.setchuensis)、四川毛蕊茶(Camellialawii)和细枝柃(Eurya loquaiana)在林窗和林下两种对照光环境下个体叶片的光饱和下的净光合速率、叶面积干重和部分化学防御物质含量.结果表明,4个物种生活在林窗的个体单位叶面积干重、叶片氮含量和单位面积净光合速率通常高于林下的个体,但是单位质量和单位面积的总酚含量和C/N值却低于林下的个体.蛋白质和非结构性碳水化合物含量在不同生境中没有显著差异.因为不同物种叶片对光照条件的响应不同,不同参数的变化在两种生境间的差异并不完全一致.本研究结果在一定程度上暗示了物种在林窗和林下分别倾向于采取物理和化学性防御对策,并初步证实了两种防御强度之间存在权衡关系.图4参40     

基于弹性理念的城市用地开发战略研究——以上海市宝山区为例

随着市场机制的不断完善,城市土地利用的不确定性需要在战略定位上具备更大的弹性以适应市场的发展。基于弹性理念,在对城市用地开发条件进行辨识的基础上,对土地开发的需求进行了弹性预测,依据人口极限计算出土地弹性需求值域的上下限,确定弹性范围,提出适应社会经济发展需要的用地开发战略目标,并找到将其变为现实的正确途径。在结构上从城市用地开发战略目标的确定、城市用地发展方向的定位以及城市用地模式的选择3个方面,对城市用地开发的战略研究做了深入分析。同时,引入新的思想和方法以及多学科多视角,定性与定量相结合来制定城市用地开发的战略目标。最后,利用上海市宝山区作为实例,对基于弹性理念的城市用地开发战略的研究做了实证分析。     

A Methodology Framework for Regional Land-use Change Studies based on Landsat TM images: A Case Study in Northeast China

Abstract

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. This paper analyzed the land- use change in Northeast China during 1985–2000 based on Landsat TM images. It divides Northeast China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree model of land-use: woodland/grassland-arable land conversion zone, dry land-paddy field conversion zone; urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing and reclamation and abandon zone. The findings include the obvious increase of cropland area, paddy field and dry land increased by 75 and 276 thousand hm² respectively; urban areas expanded rapidly, areas of town and rural residence increased by 76.8 thousand hm²; areas of forests and grassland decreased sharply with the amounts of 1399 and 1521 thousand hm² respectively; areas of water body and unused land increased by 148 and 514 thousand hm² respectively. This paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zone and finds that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land-use types. The relation between land-use conversion and DEM, accumulated temperature (≤10°C) and precipitation was analyzed and represented. The land-use changes In Northeast China resulted from the changing macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland-cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land-paddy field conversion zone, apart from the change of physical elements promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of the dietary habit along with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandon zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of farming than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In Northeast China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the existence of a small number of towns and the huge potential for expansion of the existing towns and cities. The urban land expanded mainly in areas with a gentle topographic relief and low population density.     

云南高原湖泊流域土地利用与水质变化异质性分析

以云南省九大高原湖泊为例,通过面板数据方式分析对高原湖泊流域土地利用类型变化,通过库兹涅兹曲线相关内容对利用强度的分析以及与水质的动态变化情况,得到耕地、园地、湿地面积与湖泊含磷量存在一定负相关.林地、牧草地、建设用地面积与湖泊含磷量存在一定正相关.牧草地、耕地、园地、湿地面积与湖泊含氮量存在一定负相关,建设用地面积与湖泊含氮量存在一定正相关.园地和耕地面积与污染综合指数存在负相关,建设用地面积与污染综合指数存在负相关.分析指出,滇池、泸沽湖处于流域协调区间,阳宗海、抚仙湖、星云湖、程海处于流域冲突区间,洱海、异龙湖处于冲突区间向协调区间转型过程中.     

廊坊市生态环境与土地利用协调研究

通过对廊坊市环境容量现状和土地利用与生态环境关系的分析,提出了廊坊市生态适宜的土地利用目标和调控指标,从而构建环境友好型土地利用模式。     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.     

基于“三生”适宜性的县域土地利用冲突识别与分析

精准识别潜在土地利用冲突有利于预警权衡和协调冲突用地,有利于科学进行国土空间规划。以“三调”修正数据为基础,基于生产、生活、生态视角,构建高植被覆盖率县域生产、生活、生态即“三生”适宜性评价模型与土地利用冲突识别矩阵,并选取横峰县进行实证分析。结果表明:（1）横峰县“三生”适宜性用地的空间分布与面积构成差异显著,且存在明显的空间叠加特征,暗示着研究区土地利用存在冲突;（2）从潜在冲突识别的结果来看,土地利用适宜区、冲突激烈区、冲突中度区、冲突一般区及冲突微弱区面积占比分别为64.02%、9.66%、17.19%、1.66%、7.48%;（3）各个冲突类型区空间分布、表现形式的差异性决定了冲突和解的对策也需因地制宜。研究结果可为相关及类似县域的国土空间规划提供理论参考。