基于层次分析与模糊综合评价的事故应急预案评估

对应急预案的评估是应急救援的重要组成部分。为评估企业安全生产事故应急预案的优劣,提出了一种层析分析和模糊综合评价相结合的方法。按照科学性、完整性等原则构建了一个包含5个一级要素及28个二级要素的企业安全生产事故应急预案评估指标体系。通过所建立的指标体系对某企业突发安全事故应急预案进行完整性和有效性评估。该研究对企业安全生产事故应急预案的编制和改进、定量评价及评估的软件化具有一定的指导意义。     

基于文本故障视角的通信保障应急预案有效性评估研究

应急通信预案作为应急通信保障的行动纲领,其文本有效性将直接影响预案有效性,进而影响到整个应急救援行动的有效性。针对预案文本有效性问题,从文本故障视角出发,基于故障树分析法构建通信保障应急预案有效性评估模型;采用语句成分分析法和伪代码转换法对预案进行故障形式诊断,结合标准故障树,计算预案的有效性并给出具体评估步骤;最终,通过4个样本预案对模型进行实例分析,结果表明:该模型能够提高预案文本故障的识别效率,对预案的编制或修订具有参考意义。     

企业安全生产信息化建设存在的问题及对策

在对我国安全生产信息化建设现状调研的基础上,结合国内外相关资料文献及笔者多年为企业提供安全生产信息化建设解决方案的工作经验,分析了目前我国安全生产信息系统的分类和应用方向,以及企业在安全生产信息化建设过程中存在的问题,如缺乏统一规范和总体规划、投入结构不合理等。针对企业安全生产信息化建设中存在的诸多问题,提出了建设应对措施及建议。对指导企业开展安全生产信息化建设,保证系统科学性、实用性等方面具有重要意义。     

Community energy plans in Canadian cities: success and barriers in implementation

Climate change and sustainable development concerns have motivated some municipalities in Canada to develop community energy plans, which focus on energy needs at the local level for the development of efficient, economical and environmental energy systems. Five Canadian cities that were early adopters of community energy planning principles were studied to assess whether implementation has occurred and what barriers have been experienced. The cities achieved success in the implementation of energy management in municipal operations despite barriers in jurisdiction, perception of cost, communication and capacity, but energy management in the community had not been fully implemented and long-term changes were not prevalent. While reductions were made in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by municipal operations, the community's overall GHG emissions were not significantly reduced. Long-term impacts on a city's function and growth will be key if community energy planning is to significantly impact community-wide GHG emissions and energy use.     

推进规划环评工作的实践和思考

就规划环评实施过程中普遍存在的问题提出了相应的解决方法,浅谈了对规划环境影响评价的认识及如何推进规划环境影响评价工作的体会。     

中国规划环评中协调性分析的作用

协调性分析是规划环境影响评价的重要组成部分,它的分析对象是被评价的规划草案及其相关的政策、法规、规划等。在以规划草案为评估对象的环境影响评价中,协调性分析能够起到两种作用：解释制定规划草案的“政策背景环境”,和检查规划草案是否存在资源保护、环境保护方面的缺陷和不足。这两种作用不能被截然分开。协调性分析的目的是帮助环评单位和公众更好地理解规划制定的背景,以及使规划环评针对草案的缺陷与不足提出相应的环境目标和环境保护对策。分析结果一般可以使用矩阵来表示。如果规划环评可以早期介入到规划的制定中,描述“政策背景环境”和制定可选择性方案这两个程序就可以达到协调性分析的目的．因此不再需要进行专门的协调性分析。     

An integrated assessment method of urban drainage system:A case study in Shenzhen City,China

In recent years, the urban drainage system in China is facing the dual pressure of renovation and construction. This requires that the integrated assessment for the planning and operation of the urban drainage system is obligatory. To evaluate the urban drainage system, an integrated assessment methodology based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), integrated simulation, and fuzzy assessment is established. This method is a multi-criteria decision adding app roach to the assessment of the urban drainage system comprehensively. Through the integration of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), a simple wastewater treatment plant model, and a surface water quality model, an integrated modelling system for the urban drainage system is developed and applied as a key tool for assessment. Using the established method, a case study in Shenzhen City has been implemented to evaluate and compare two urban drainage system reno vation plans, the distributed plan and the centralized plan. Because of the particularity of this case study, the established method is not applied entirely. Considering the water environ mental impact, ecological impact, technological feasibility, and economic cost, the integrated performance of the distri buted plan is better. As shown in this case study, the proposed method is found to be both effective and practical.     

基于弹性理念的城市用地开发战略研究——以上海市宝山区为例

随着市场机制的不断完善,城市土地利用的不确定性需要在战略定位上具备更大的弹性以适应市场的发展。基于弹性理念,在对城市用地开发条件进行辨识的基础上,对土地开发的需求进行了弹性预测,依据人口极限计算出土地弹性需求值域的上下限,确定弹性范围,提出适应社会经济发展需要的用地开发战略目标,并找到将其变为现实的正确途径。在结构上从城市用地开发战略目标的确定、城市用地发展方向的定位以及城市用地模式的选择3个方面,对城市用地开发的战略研究做了深入分析。同时,引入新的思想和方法以及多学科多视角,定性与定量相结合来制定城市用地开发的战略目标。最后,利用上海市宝山区作为实例,对基于弹性理念的城市用地开发战略的研究做了实证分析。     

A Methodology Framework for Regional Land-use Change Studies based on Landsat TM images: A Case Study in Northeast China

Abstract

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. This paper analyzed the land- use change in Northeast China during 1985–2000 based on Landsat TM images. It divides Northeast China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree model of land-use: woodland/grassland-arable land conversion zone, dry land-paddy field conversion zone; urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing and reclamation and abandon zone. The findings include the obvious increase of cropland area, paddy field and dry land increased by 75 and 276 thousand hm² respectively; urban areas expanded rapidly, areas of town and rural residence increased by 76.8 thousand hm²; areas of forests and grassland decreased sharply with the amounts of 1399 and 1521 thousand hm² respectively; areas of water body and unused land increased by 148 and 514 thousand hm² respectively. This paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zone and finds that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land-use types. The relation between land-use conversion and DEM, accumulated temperature (≤10°C) and precipitation was analyzed and represented. The land-use changes In Northeast China resulted from the changing macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland-cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land-paddy field conversion zone, apart from the change of physical elements promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of the dietary habit along with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandon zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of farming than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In Northeast China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the existence of a small number of towns and the huge potential for expansion of the existing towns and cities. The urban land expanded mainly in areas with a gentle topographic relief and low population density.     

Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year horizon, the relative abundance of black oak and pine species groups will decrease and the relative abundance of the white oak species group will increase, regardless of management strategy. General Land Office witness tree records provide a measure of tree species composition in the period from 1800 to 1850, prior to the large-scale influx of European settlers. Compared to the tree species composition described in the General Land Office records, the six contemporary management alternatives considered all would lead to a lower abundance of pine species, a higher abundance of red/black oak species, and a slightly higher abundance of white oak species after 200 years. Impacts of management on tree species composition varied with physiographic settings. The projected relative abundance of pine differed significantly across the five physiographic classes over the first 40 years of the simulation. In the medium term (simulation years 41-100) the projected relative pine abundance differed significantly among only four physiographic classes. In the long term (simulation years 100-200) the projected relative pine abundance differed for only one physiographic class. In contrast, differences among physiographic classes in the relative abundance of black oaks and white oaks increased over time. In general, the expected long-term differences in relative tree species abundance among six proposed alternative management plans are small compared to shifts in tree species composition that have occurred from 1850 to the present.