大空间建筑消防系统故障风险定量分析的新方法

在对CO2自动灭火系统的故障模式、影响及危害度定性分析的基础上,采用模糊数学方法,以系统故障影响严重度、故障模式发生概率及其可检测性为关键指标,给出了故障风险定量评价指标的建立方法,提出了一种消防系统故障风险定量分析的新方法———模糊推理法。该方法可直接输入语言变量,利用模糊定性和不确定信息或数据定量评价系统的故障风险,并以CO2自动灭火系统为例,详细阐述了该方法定量评价故障风险的全过程。该方法和推理过程可为其他建筑防火设备的同类分析所借鉴,为城市火灾风险定量评价系统的构建提供理论基础和一种新方法。     

藏东南察隅河上游流域大中型兽类动物资源现状和保护

从2001年8月到2002年8月对藏东南察隅河上游流域内的大中型兽类动物资源现状进行了野外调查,对其捕猎状况进行了社区调查。主要调查了灵长目、食肉目和偶蹄目共21种动物,确认了一物种分布新记录。调查发现,数量最多的是羚牛、鬣羚等偶蹄类动物,种类数量最多的是食肉类动物,但其数量稀少,有的可能已经灭绝。调查发现,捕猎是威胁当地野生大中型动物生存的最直接和最大的因素,另外,它们还受到林区人为活动和栖息地破坏等不利因素的威胁。论文把保护当地野生动物与发展当地经济结合起来考虑,并提出了6点保护建议。     

大型强激光系统风险评价方法

对于大型强激光系统 ,要求进行安全性分析。给出了大型强激光系统风险评价的定性定量评估方法     

A process-based model designed for filling of large data gaps in tower-based measurements of net ecosystem productivity

In this paper we present a simple hybrid gap-filling model (GFM) designed with a minimum number of parameters necessary to capture the ecological processes important for filling medium-to-large gaps in Flux data. As the model is process-based, the model has potential to be used in filling large gaps exhibiting a broad range of micro-meteorological and site conditions. The GFM performance was evaluated using “Punch hole” and extrapolation experiments based on data collected in west-central New Brunswick. These experiments indicated that the GFM is able to provide acceptable results (r² > 0.80) when >500 data points are used in model parameterization. The GFM was shown to address daytime evolution of NEP reasonably well for a wide range of weather and site conditions. An analysis of residuals indicated that for the most part no obvious trends were evident; although a slight bias was detected in NEP with soil temperature. To explore the portability of the GFM across ecosystem types, a transcontinental validation was conducted using NEP and ancillary data from seven ecosystems along a north-south transect (i.e., temperature–moisture gradient) from northern Europe (Finland) to the Middle East (Israel). The GFM was shown to explain over 75% of the variability in NEP measured at most ecosystems, which strongly suggests that the GFM maybe successfully applied to forest ecosystems outside Canada.     

黄河流域分布式水文模型开发和验证

研究目的是开发和验证大流域分布式水文模型,为黄河流域水资源评价和演化规律分析服务。在综合了分布式水文模型和陆面过程模型各自优点的基础上,开发出模拟对象为“天然-人工”二元水循环系统的WEP-L模型。该模型以“子流域内等高带”为计算单元,并用“马赛克”法考虑计算单元内土地覆被的多样性,避免了采用过粗网格单元产生的模拟失真问题。针对各水循环要素过程时间尺度不同的特点,计算时采用了1h至1d的“变时间步长”,既合理表述了水循环动力学机制又提高了计算效率。将全黄河流域划分为具有空间拓扑关系的8485个子流域和38720个等高带,采用45年(1956～2000年)水文气象系列数据及相应下垫面条件进行了模拟计算,并根据黄河流域主要水文站逐月和逐日径流系列进行了模型校验。验证结果表明,所构建的模型具有较高模拟精度,可应用于黄河流域二元水循环过程模拟和水资源演变规律分析。     

Dynamics of a low‐density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture‐recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624–1026 km² with 137–200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture‐recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood‐based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km², abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture–recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82–90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low‐density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.     

Understanding public perceptions of risk regarding outdoor pet cats to inform conservation action

Free‐ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) incur and impose risks on ecosystems and represent a complex issue of critical importance to biodiversity conservation and cat and human health globally. Prior social science research on this topic is limited and has emphasized feral cats even though owned cats often comprise a large proportion of the outdoor cat population, particularly in urban areas. To address this gap, we examined public risk perceptions and attitudes toward outdoor pet cats across varying levels of urbanization, including along the wildland–urban interface, in Colorado (U.S.A.), through a mail survey of 1397 residents. Residents did not view all types of risks uniformly. They viewed risks of cat predation on wildlife and carnivore predation on cats as more likely than disease‐related risks. Additionally, risk perceptions were related to attitudes, prior experiences with cats and cat–wildlife interactions, and cat‐owner behavior. Our findings suggest that changes in risk perceptions may result in behavior change. Therefore, knowledge of cat‐related risk perceptions and attitudes could be used to develop communication programs aimed at promoting risk‐aversive behaviors among cat owners and cat‐management strategies that are acceptable to the public and that directly advance the conservation of native species.     

气流清扫的超音速喷管气动设计及其性能的对比分析

目的 提出使用拉瓦尔喷管产生高速气流清扫固体表面附着的水膜。方法 设计中心轴对称锥形喷管(Taper-A)、中心轴对称Sivell法喷管(Sivell-A)、中心轴对称短化喷管(MLN-A)和二维锥形型线喷管(Taper-2D),建立包括外流场的LES数值仿真模型,并进行仿真,分析研究外流场结构,并基于韦伯数判据,分析超音速喷管的清扫性能。结果 喷管短化设计方法可以将喷管长度缩短50%。外流场速度呈波动衰减趋势,特征线法喷管的气流膨胀更充分。缩短喷管长度会减小内流场的附面层厚度,因此MLN-A在速度波动中的能量耗散较少;喷管过长也会降低清扫性能,MLN-A和Taper-2D在xL>2区域的最大等效水膜厚度小于0.2 μm,但MLN-A有效清扫面积比Taper-A的喷管提高15%以上,清扫性能最优。结论 喷管短化设计方法可以有效缩短喷管。喷管结构对清扫性能影响较大。MLN-A喷管的清扫性能最优。     

国内外机载电子设备液体冷却系统分析

首先分析了国内外机载电子设备液冷系统的工作原理,即冷却液在液体泵的作用下,进入电子设备冷板,带走电子设备的热量,再通过热交换器进行降温处理,热量传递到空气或燃油中,降温后的冷却液流向液体泵,进行下一次的冷却循环。其次分析了某些机载电子设备因安装位置不适用液冷系统,则采用强迫通风为其进行冷却,但热量最终经过空气还是传递至液冷系统中。最后对未来飞机的液体冷却技术进行了展望,液冷系统未来的发展趋势一定是有区域故障隔离能力,且冷却液的流量是随着热载荷而动态变化的,其代偿损失也较小。     

大型PVC生产企业清洁生产分析研究——以新疆中泰化学华泰重化工有限责任公司为例

利用工艺设备先进、自动化程度高、管理良好、生产规模在同行业中位居全国前列的新疆中泰化学华泰重化工有限责任公司聚氯乙烯树脂(PVC)生产线的清洁生产审核及后评估,通过对其生产工艺、物耗能耗、浪费环节等多方面的分析,挖掘其清洁生产潜力,并通过Vmbeao软件分析其清洁生活水平,为同类企业的清洁生产审核提供借鉴实例,并总结出具有推广价值的清洁生产技术.