Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.

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Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.     

Sequential polyandry affords post-mating sexual selection in the mouths of cichlid females

Females mating with multiple males may obtain direct benefits such as nuptial gifts or paternal care or indirect (i.e. genetic) benefits resulting in higher-quality offspring. While direct benefits are easily identified, it is difficult to determine indirect benefits, and it is hence largely unclear how they are obtained. This is particularly true in species with external fertilisation, where females seem to have little control over fertilisation. In cichlids, most maternal mouthbrooders show sequential multiple mating, where females visit several males for egg deposition. Genetic data revealed that multiple paternity of eggs and young in the mouth of females is common, but behavioural data of female spawning decisions are missing. Here, we test four hypotheses to explain female multiple mating in the maternally mouthbrooding cichlid, Ophthalmotilapia ventralis: (1) fertilisation insurance, (2) genetic bet-hedging, (3) female choice and (4) ‘sperm shopping’ (i.e. induction of sperm competition resulting in sexually selected sperm). Detailed observations of spawning behaviour in the field combined with histological analyses of the male reproductive organs suggest that fertilisation insurance, genetic bet-hedging and pre-mating female choice are unlikely to explain the sequential female multiple mating in O. ventralis. Instead, cryptic female choice by sperm shopping, i.e. post-mating sexual selection, is most compatible with our data and might be the major ultimate cause of multiple mating in females of this species and of mouthbrooding cichlids with maternal care in general. Our study provides new insight into ultimate causes of sequential polyandry in species with external fertilisation, as hitherto post-mating sexual selection by cryptic female choice has been assumed to be incompatible with external fertilisation mechanisms except by components of the ovarian fluid.     

Resource allocation varies with parental sex and brood size in the asynchronously hatching green-rumped parrotlet (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Forpus passerinus</Emphasis>)

When eggs hatch asynchronously, offspring arising from last-hatched eggs often exhibit a competitive disadvantage compared with their older, larger nestmates. Strong sibling competition might result in a pattern of resource allocation favoring larger nestlings, but active food allocation towards smaller offspring may compensate for the negative effects of asynchronous hatching. We examined patterns of resource allocation by green-rumped parrotlet parents to small and large broods under control and food-supplemented conditions. There was no difference between parents and among brood sizes in visit rate or number of feeds delivered, although females spent marginally more time in the nest than males. Both male and female parents preferentially fed offspring that had a higher begging effort than the remainder of the brood. Mean begging levels did not differ between small and large broods, but smaller offspring begged more than their older nestmates in large broods. Male parents fed small offspring less often in both brood sizes. Female parents fed offspring evenly in small broods, while in large broods they fed smaller offspring more frequently, with the exception of the very last hatched individual. These data suggest male parrotlets exhibit a feeding preference for larger offspring—possibly arising from the outcome of sibling competition—but that females practice active food allocation, particularly in larger brood sizes. These differential patterns of resource allocation between the sexes are consistent with other studies of parrots and may reflect some level of female compensation for the limitations imposed on smaller offspring by hatching asynchrony.     

Fissioning minimizes ranging costs in spider monkeys: a multiple-level approach

The adjustment to deal with intragroup food competition is probably the most plausible explanation of high levels of fission–fusion dynamics. However, studies did not always support expected relations between food availability, ranging costs, and subgroup size. We used several levels of analysis differing in the time and spatial scale in order to investigate this explanation in spider monkeys. In our study, subgroups were larger when food availability was higher across most levels of analyses used. We also found a fine-scale adjustment: compared to the food patch previously visited, spider monkeys traveled to larger patches just after fusions. This was not without an immediate travel cost: the interpatch distance and travel time after a fusion were longer than that before the fusion. This rapid adjustment shows the flexibility that fission–fusion dynamics can offer. Spider monkeys are in large subgroups only when food conditions are favorable, as evidenced by the fact that at all the other time-scale levels larger subgroups did not experience greater ranging costs than smaller subgroups. Our results indicate that on the whole spider monkeys successfully minimize ranging costs by fission and fusion of subgroups.     

Sperm design and variation in the New World blackbirds (Icteridae)

Post-copulatory sexual selection (PCSS) is thought to be one of the evolutionary forces responsible for the rapid and divergent evolution of sperm design. However, whereas in some taxa particular sperm traits are positively associated with PCSS, in other taxa, these relationships are negative, and the causes of these different patterns across taxa are poorly understood. In a comparative study using New World blackbirds (Icteridae), we tested whether sperm design was influenced by the level of PCSS and found significant positive associations with the level of PCSS for all sperm components but head length. Additionally, whereas the absolute length of sperm components increased, their variation declined with the intensity of PCSS, indicating stabilising selection around an optimal sperm design. Given the diversity of, and strong selection on, sperm design, it seems likely that sperm phenotype may influence sperm velocity within species. However, in contrast to other recent studies of passerine birds, but consistent with several other studies, we found no significant link between sperm design and velocity, using four different species that vary both in sperm design and PCSS. Potential reasons for this discrepancy between studies are discussed. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Callyspongia samarensis (Porifera) extracts exhibit anticancer activity and induce bleaching in Porites cylindrica (Scleractinia)

Marine sponges can produce allelopathic compounds with specific roles in the competition for benthic space. Here we demonstrate that extracts from Callyspongia samarensis (Phylum Porifera) accelerate bleaching in Porites cylindrica (Phylum Cnidaria, Order Scleractinia) and exhibit in vitro anticancer activity. A column chromatography fraction and HPLC fraction, purified from the crude methanol extract of C. samarensis, were incorporated into agar gel cubes at natural concentrations and tested on P. cylindrica corals in a laboratory assay. Statistical analysis of percent bleached area and maximum quantum yield showed that a significant difference existed between P. cylindrica nubbins that were exposed to C. samarensis extracts versus the control group. This suggests that C. samarensis contains allelopathic compounds that can cause bleaching in P. cylindrica, possibly leading to tissue necrosis and death. Furthermore, the aforementioned HPLC fraction exhibited significant growth inhibition of the HCT-116 (human colon cancer) cell line. Understanding the strategies by which sponges exert dominance over other organisms is important because it provides information about the ecological roles of sponge allelopathy and can result in the discovery of compounds with biomedical potential.     

Predation, scramble competition, and the vigilance group size effect in dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis)

In socially feeding birds and mammals, as group size increases, individuals devote less time to scanning their environment and more time to feeding. This vigilance “group size effect” has long been attributed to the anti-predatory benefits of group living, but many investigators have suggested that this effect may be driven by scramble competition for limited food. We addressed this issue of causation by focusing on the way in which the scan durations of free-living dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis) decrease with group size. We were particularly interested in vigilance scanning concomitant with the handling of food items, since a decrease in food handling times (i.e. scan durations) with increasing group size could theoretically be driven by scramble competition for limited food resources. However, we showed that food-handling scan durations decrease with group size in an environment with an effectively unlimited food supply. Furthermore, this food-handling effect was qualitatively similar to that observed in the duration of standard vigilance scans (scanning exclusive of food ingestion), and both responded to changes in the risk of predation (proximity of a refuge) as one might expect based upon anti-predator considerations. The group size effects in both food-handling and standard scan durations may reflect a lesser need for personal information about risk as group size increases. Scramble competition may influence vigilance in some circumstances, but demonstrating an effect of competition beyond that of predation may prove challenging. Received: 22 September 1998 / Received in revised form: 1 February 1999 / Accepted: 14 February 1999     

Scramble competition selects for greater tailfin size in male red-spotted newts (Amphibia: Salamandridae)

Darwin predicted that scramble competition for access to reproductive females would result in sexual dimorphism of locomotory structures, but direct evidence for this is extremely rare. I examined the relationship between variation in tailfin size and mating success in a field and laboratory study of red-spotted newts, Notophthalmus viridescens. Over three breeding seasons, male tailfin size was positively correlated with variation in male amplexus frequency, and indirectly correlated with male insemination frequency. In a laboratory study, I confirmed that males' ability to capture females is affected by variation in tailfin size. This is the first study to show that naturally occurring variation in male locomotory structures affects male mating success. It corroborates the prediction that scramble competition leads to sexual selection on locomotory structures and, potentially, to dimorphism in these structures. Received: 16 April 1999 / Received in revised form: 16 May 1999 / Accepted: 12 June 1999     

Fertility signaling in queens of a North American ant

In most species of advanced eusocial insects, the partitioning of reproduction between nestmates is thought to be regulated by means of primer pheromones or other chemical cues, which presumably influence the behavior of co-queens and workers such that they maximize their own inclusive fitness. Here we show that in multi-queen colonies of the Nearctic ant, Leptothorax sp. A, physical dominance in concert with chemical cues, which signal the ovarian development of a queen, are used to control reproduction of competing queens and to influence worker behavior. The analysis of ranks obtained during two fighting periods in the annual colony cycle revealed a strong link between individual aggressiveness of a queen and her fertility. During the adoption of newly mated queens in autumn, the resident, egg-laying α-queen was more likely to start aggression first and keep her high rank position compared to the fighting period after hibernation. We suggest that this is proximately caused by the α-queen having much stronger developed ovaries in autumn than the young queens, whereas after hibernation, the ovaries of all queens are similarly inactive. Interactions during the first weeks after the end of hibernation and intrinsic, individual differences in aggressiveness appear to be crucial for the dominance rank achieved later. Queens which were allowed to become fertile when their nestmate queens still were kept under prolonged hibernation, were immediately socially dominant over the latter when all queens were reunited, though no aggression occurred. In another experiment, queen antagonism was prevented by spatial separation in different parts of the same nest and all queens began to lay eggs. Workers stayed preferentially with queens with high actual fecundity rather than with those which had had high social status before separation. This and further evidence suggest that ovarian status is communicated, most likely by a chemical cue perceived by co-queens and workers, affects the direction of their aggressive behavior, and allows them to discriminate among queens. Received: 5 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 29 August 1998     

Sex allocation and local mate competition in Old World non-pollinating fig wasps

The populations of many species are structured such that mating is not random and occurs between members of local patches. When patches are founded by a single female and all matings occur between siblings, brothers may compete with each other for matings with their sisters. This local mate competition (LMC) selects for a female-biased sex ratio, especially in species where females have control over offspring sex, as in the parasitic Hymenoptera. Two factors are predicted to decrease the degree of female bias: (1) an increase in the number of foundress females in the patch and (2) an increase in the fraction of individuals mating after dispersal from the natal patch. Pollinating fig wasps are well known as classic examples of species where all matings occur in the local patch. We studied non-pollinating fig wasps, which are more diverse than the pollinating fig wasps and also provide natural experimental groups of species with different male morphologies that are linked to different mating structures. In this group of wasps, species with wingless males mate in the local patch (i.e. the fig fruit) while winged male species mate after dispersal. Species with both kinds of male have a mixture of local and non-local mating. Data from 44 species show that sex ratios (defined as the proportion of males) are in accordance with theoretical predictions: wingless male species<wing-dimorphic male species<winged male species. These results are also supported by a formal comparative analysis that controls for phylogeny. The foundress number is difficult to estimate directly for non-pollinating fig wasps but a robust indirect method leads to the prediction that foundress number, and hence sex ratio, should increase with the proportion of patches occupied in a crop. This result is supported strongly across 19 species with wingless males, but not across 8 species with winged males. The mean sex ratios for species with winged males are not significantly different from 0.5, and the absence of the correlation observed across species with wingless males may reflect weak selection to adjust the sex ratio in species whose population mating structure tends not to be subdivided. The same relationship is also predicted to occur within species if individual females adjust their sex ratios facultatively. This final prediction was not supported by data from a wingless male species, a male wing-dimorphic species or a winged male species. Received: 27 July 1998 / Received in revised form: 11 January 1999 / Accepted: 16 January 1999