东北低温冷害防御决策支持系统的概念模型

将农业气象灾害的防灾减灾成果与智能化的计算机系统相结合,建立了东北地区低温冷害防御决策支持系统的概念模型,以提高灾害决策分析水平.概述了概念模型的基本结构,介绍了其数据库、知识库和模型库的组成,以及基于这三大库结构的查询分析功能和对低温冷害发生可能性的预测防御功能,最后对今后防灾减灾智能化的决策系统的发展进行了讨论.     

Monitoring Ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: The Conceptual Model Foundation

Monitoring at large geographic scales requires a framework for understanding relationships between components and processes of an ecosystem and the human activities that affect them. We created a conceptual model that is centered on ecosystem processes, considers humans as part of ecosystems, and serves as a framework for selecting attributes for monitoring ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada. The model has three levels: 1) an ecosystem model that identifies five spheres (Atmosphere, Biosphere, Hydrosphere, Lithosphere, Sociocultural), 2) sphere models that identify key ecosystem processes (e.g., photosynthesis), and 3) key process models that identify the "essential elements"that are required for the process to operate (e.g., solar radiation), the human activities ("affectors") that have negative and positive effects on the elements (e.g., air pollution), and the "consequences"of affectors acting on essential elements (e.g., change in primary productivity). We discuss use of the model to select attributes that best reflect the operation and integrity of the ecosystem processes. Model details can be viewed on the web at http://www.r5.fs.fed.us/sncf/spam_report/index.htm(Appendix section).     

传统给水处理厂氯消毒模型的开发与应用

以建立给水处理过程的风险分析方法为目标,提出了适用于传统给水处理工艺的氯消毒概率机理模型.模型既考虑氯消毒过程中有机物、余氯、氨氮、溴离子之间化学反应,又考虑水厂混凝、沉淀和过滤工艺过程中的物理和生物作用.典型水厂的现场监测数据表明,该模型能够较好地模拟水厂中高锰酸盐指数、氨氮以及4种三卤甲烷的浓度概率分布.Monte Carlo模拟的结果表明,与我国城市供水水质标准相比,该水厂高锰酸盐指数和单种三卤甲烷的超标概率极低,但总三卤甲烷的超标概率略高,约为2.3%.     

Application of a water quality model in the White Cart water catchment,Glasgow, UK

Water quality models of urban systems have previously focused on point source (sewerage system) inputs. Little attention has been given to diffuse inputs and research into diffuse pollution has been largely confined to agriculture sources. This paper reports on new research that is aimed at integrating diffuse inputs into an urban water quality model. An integrated model is introduced that is made up of four modules: hydrology, contaminant point sources, nutrient cycling and leaching. The hydrology module, T & T consists of a TOPMODEL (a TOPography-based hydrological MODEL), which simulates runoff from pervious areas and a two-tank model, which simulates runoff from impervious urban areas. Linked into the two-tank model, the contaminant point source module simulates the overflow from the sewerage system in heavy rain. The widely known SOILN (SOIL Nitrate model) is the basis of nitrogen cycle module. Finally, the leaching module consists of two functions: the production function and the transfer function. The production function is based on SLIM (Solute Leaching Intermediate Model) while the transfer function is based on the flushing hypothesis which postulates a relationship between contaminant concentrations in the receiving water course and the extent to which the catchment is saturated. This paper outlines the modelling methodology and the model structures that have been developed. An application of this model in the White Cart catchment (Glasgow) is also included.     

Genotoxicity at Low Level Dose of Inspirable Urban Ambient Air Particulate in a Semiarid Regime

Samples of inspirable air particulate(inhalable + ingestable) were obtained at two urbanlocations in southern Argentina which differ in theirexposure to pollution by class B2 polynuclear aromatichydrocarbons (PAHs). Sample extracts were tested in vitro for induction of chromosomal aberrations incultured rat hepatocytes. The average induced amountof chromosomal aberrations did not vary amonggeographic locations, but significant differences wereidentified in samples near known emitting sources. Thedifferences were analyzed in the frame of a model ofthe emissions and their subsequent distribution andre-suspension from the soil and other surfaces. Theresults show that the rat hepatocyte test is sensitiveto genotoxic activity of the urban air particulate inthe low dose range of the tested fractions. Adequatemodels of human exposure to these materials shouldconsider emissions and re-suspension of pollutants bywind. The implications of these results on theformulation of policies of emission reduction, urbansoil management and the design of cancer epidemiologystudies are discussed.     

科层制度视角下旅游地水资源治理的演变研究——以哈尼梯田为例

旅游业的可持续依赖于各项环境资源的投入及其科学有效的治理,而旅游地公共池塘资源治理问题仍有待深入。水资源作为一类典型的公共池塘资源,是目的地可持续发展的关键。以哈尼梯田核心区为案例,以水权科层概念模型为分析框架,通过半结构访谈、参与式观察等质性研究方法,探讨大众旅游发展前后目的地水权结构的演变历程。研究发现：（1）政体变动和大众旅游业的发展是促成目的地水权结构演变的主要动力,从赋权体系和分配方式两方面影响用户的水资源利用实践;（2）旅游情境下,目的地用户主体的异质性增强,水资源稀缺性提高,商品化趋势明显;（3）科层结构下,集体层级的决策实体作为连接国家层级决策实体和用户层级的中间层,只有充分发挥其监督管理的治理职能才能促进资源的公平利用与可持续发展。现阶段案例地水资源治理以市场力量为主导,而政府管理存在一定缺位,面临可持续发展的挑战。     

A framework for evaluating and designing citizen science programs for natural resources monitoring

We present a framework of resource characteristics critical to the design and assessment of citizen science programs that monitor natural resources. To develop the framework we reviewed 52 citizen science programs that monitored a wide range of resources and provided insights into what resource characteristics are most conducive to developing citizen science programs and how resource characteristics may constrain the use or growth of these programs. We focused on 4 types of resource characteristics: biophysical and geographical, management and monitoring, public awareness and knowledge, and social and cultural characteristics. We applied the framework to 2 programs, the Tucson (U.S.A.) Bird Count and the Maui (U.S.A.) Great Whale Count. We found that resource characteristics such as accessibility, diverse institutional involvement in resource management, and social or cultural importance of the resource affected program endurance and success. However, the relative influence of each characteristic was in turn affected by goals of the citizen science programs. Although the goals of public engagement and education sometimes complimented the goal of collecting reliable data, in many cases trade‐offs must be made between these 2 goals. Program goals and priorities ultimately dictate the design of citizen science programs, but for a program to endure and successfully meet its goals, program managers must consider the diverse ways that the nature of the resource being monitored influences public participation in monitoring.     

东亚沙尘暴形成机制概念模型的理论分析

根据观测事实概括了东亚沙尘暴的形成机理的概念模型,用数学模型对抽象的概念模型进行了理论建模,并用数学模型的数值解讨论了东亚沙尘暴概念模型的有效性。结果表明,从观测事实得到的东亚沙尘暴形成机理的概念模型与用气象学原理建立的沙尘暴数学模型的结果一致,从而证明了沙尘暴形成机理概念模型的有效性。     

低空急流暴雨天气概念模型及其雷达回波特征分析

对2002-2010年广西12个急流暴雨个例进行的分析研究表明,广西急流暴雨是在大尺度背景下,由天气系统和中小尺度系统共同影响的结果,当有低空急流存在的情况下,降水量有明显的增幅作用;对天气背景的分析表明,低空急流暴雨天气概念模型主要有低涡急流型和深槽切变急流型以及副高加强急流型。雷达回波主要有块状、带状和絮状三种类型;再通过分析低空急流暴雨过程的雷达回波强度、回波演变、其他产品特征、回波的源地移动、暴雨落区等主要内容,形成低空急流暴雨的短时预报模型。     

南四湖流域水环境承载力评价指标体系构建

针对目前水环境承载力概念及评价指标体系研究中存在的问题,构建了流域水环境承载力概念模型,根据评价指标筛选原则,建立了南四湖流域水环境承载力评价指标体系,包括水环境承载能力、水环境压力、水环境承载状态和社会经济调控能力4部分,共有57个具体指标,从而为制定流域保护规划和管理政策提供技术支持,为寻求流域水环境承载力的提高途径和措施提供科学依据。