AN ANALOG COMPUTER DEMONSTRATION OF DOUBLE-PEAKED INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPHS1

The properties of an instantaneous unit hydrograph model consisting of two cascades of linear reservoirs in parallel were explored with the aid of an analog computer. By proper choice of the model parameters it is possible to produce two-peaked instantaneous unit hydrographs. The relative magnitudes and locations of the two peaks can be varied by changing the values of the parameters. An example of the use of the analog computer to select the parameters of the model giving the best fit to an observed runoff hydrograph is also included. The analog computer used in the study was the ASTRAC II developed at the University of Arizona.     

Importance of Baseline Specification in Evaluating Conservation Interventions and Achieving No Net Loss of Biodiversity

There is an urgent need to improve the evaluation of conservation interventions. This requires specifying an objective and a frame of reference from which to measure performance. Reference frames can be baselines (i.e., known biodiversity at a fixed point in history) or counterfactuals (i.e., a scenario that would have occurred without the intervention). Biodiversity offsets are interventions with the objective of no net loss of biodiversity (NNL). We used biodiversity offsets to analyze the effects of the choice of reference frame on whether interventions met stated objectives. We developed 2 models to investigate the implications of setting different frames of reference in regions subject to various biodiversity trends and anthropogenic impacts. First, a general analytic model evaluated offsets against a range of baseline and counterfactual specifications. Second, a simulation model then replicated these results with a complex real world case study: native grassland offsets in Melbourne, Australia. Both models showed that achieving NNL depended upon the interaction between reference frame and background biodiversity trends. With a baseline, offsets were less likely to achieve NNL where biodiversity was decreasing than where biodiversity was stable or increasing. With a no‐development counterfactual, however, NNL was achievable only where biodiversity was declining. Otherwise, preventing development was better for biodiversity. Uncertainty about compliance was a stronger determinant of success than uncertainty in underlying biodiversity trends. When only development and offset locations were considered, offsets sometimes resulted in NNL, but not across an entire region. Choice of reference frame determined feasibility and effort required to attain objectives when designing and evaluating biodiversity offset schemes. We argue the choice is thus of fundamental importance for conservation policy. Our results shed light on situations in which biodiversity offsets may be an inappropriate policy instrument Importancia de la Especificación de Línea de Base en la Evaluación de Intervenciones de Conservación y la Obtención de Ninguna Pérdida Neta de la Biodiversidad     

基于熵理论的重大事故复杂链式演化机理及其建模

为完善重大事故演化的本质规律和探究事故后果累积放大原理,从安全物质学的视角提出事故链定义和形成机理,并解析其内涵;通过物质、能量和信息表征事故链演化过程的载体反映;基于物质流、能量流和信息流构建事故链式演化概念模型;基于熵理论和耗散结构理论论述事故阶段演化特性;在此基础上,提炼事故预防与控制策略框架。研究结果丰富了事故链式演化理论,可为事故预防与控制提供更深层次的理论基础。     

生态型临港工业园区指标体系的构建及应用

在剖析临港工业园区结构特点的基础上,将港口与港后工业区结合起来统筹考虑,依据系统工程学与工业生态学原理,提出生态型临港工业园区的概念模型,从生态环境、经济效率、污染控制、环境管理与社会评价5个方面出发,构筑了具有普适意义的生态型临港工业园区决策-准则-指标多层次指标体系;采用未确知测度方法以同时兼顾生态型临港工业园区指标信息的未确知性与评价等级空间的有序性特征,并以层次分析法确定各层级指标的权重,建立生态型临港工业园区的未确知测度评估模型。选取广东省某临港化工园区为实例进行评估应用,计算得出该化工园区多指标综合测度向量为(0.140 6,0.228 8,0.249 6,0.381 1),并根据置信度识别准则求得园区综合评价指数为3,结果表明该临港化工园区的生态化水平处于中度超标状态。     

基于SPR的焦作生态安全评价指标体系构建

构建符合研究地点实际生态环境状况的生态安全评价指标体系是科学、合理的进行评价的基础,也是政府进行有效管理的前提。构建了SPR概念模型,提出了基于该模型的城市生态安全指标体系的构建方法。该方法主要包括建立SPR概念模型、实地调研、环境问题及成因辨识、指标体系初建、问卷调查及指标筛选等5个基本步骤。所建的指标体系可反映研究区域的主要生态环境问题,以及这些问题的现状水平、产生诱因和调控力度。以焦作为例,描述了该方法的应用。结果为:经实地调研及问卷调查,率定出9个主要的环境问题及形成每个环境问题的2个主要成因;根据SPR模型,确定表征每个环境问题成因的状态层、压力层及响应层指标,共计74个;就合理性、数据可得性等设计问卷征求专家意见后,最终建立了包含43个指标的生态安全评价指标体系,为未来焦作市生态安全评价和调控奠定基础。     

给水处理厂预氯化工艺概率机理模型研究

以建立给水处理过程的风险分析方法为目标,提出了综合考虑余氯、氨氮、溴离子、有机物相互关系的预氯化工艺概率机理模型.以典型给水处理厂的现场监测数据为基础,对模型参数进行了率定,并验证了模型的模拟效果.该模型能够较好地模拟预氯化工艺中高锰酸盐指数、氨氮以及氯仿、一溴二氯甲烷、二溴一氯甲烷和溴仿4种消毒副产物的浓度概率分布.     

大气环境建模与仿真中的公共基础技术研究

大气环境是综合自然环境(SNE)的重要组成部分.基于SNE建模与仿真的关键技术,定义了大气环境概念参考模型,提出了一种面向直升机飞行仿真的大气环境数据模型,探讨了大气环境内部模型的选取开发方法,设计了"动态数据柱"形式的大气环境信息格式,并就大气环境建模的基本流程进行了初步探讨.