基于人工神经网络理论的船舶动力装置安全综合评价模型

为提高船舶动力装置安全综合评价水平，依据人工神经网络的基本原理，分析了BP神经网络模型的基本原理和优化策略，将其应用于船舶动力装置的安全评价之中。提出了基于神经网络理论的船舶动力装置综合安全评价模型及实现方法，并以实例论证了此方法的可行性。     

南黄海东部海域浮游生态系统要素季节变化的模拟研究

利用海洋生态系统动力学垂直一维物理-生物耦合模式模拟研究了南黄海东部海域浮游生态系统要素垂直分布的季节变化.物理亚模型为一维POM模式(Princeton Ocean Model),基于文献结果对垂直混合系数Kh和Km进行了调整;生态亚模型为ERSEM模式(European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model),主要考虑浮游植物、浮游动物、细菌、底栖碎屑和营养盐(氮、磷、硅)等状态变量.模拟结果表明,浮游植物出现一年双峰的态势和夏季次表层叶绿素最大值的现象,春、秋季水华期间,表层叶绿素峰值分别为3.25 mg/m3和0.71 mg/m3.浮游动物和细菌在春季水华后表层出现峰值,分别为143.6 mg C/m3和23.55 mg C/m3.硝酸盐、磷酸盐和硅酸盐的垂直分布均在5-11月呈现表层浓度低、底层浓度高的分布.通过计算碳通量可以看出,在春、夏季,浮游植物对无机碳的摄取量分别为58.944 g C·m-2·quarter-1和68.276 g C·m-2·quarter-1,高于细菌对非生命有机碳的摄取.在冬季,细菌对非生命有机碳的摄取超过浮游植物对无机碳的摄取量.浮游动物在冬季主要摄食细菌,占71%;春、夏季主要摄食浮游植物,可达67.5%.浮游植物对碳的释放主要是以DOC的形式,约占90%.     

典型舰船用金属材料腐蚀与防护研究进展

针对舰船用金属材料在复杂海洋环境下存在的腐蚀问题,概述了舰船用金属材料腐蚀与防护的相关研究进展。介绍了合金钢、铜合金、钛合金和铝合金这些典型舰船用金属材料的常用类型和使用场所,阐述了舰船用金属材料所处不同海洋区带内的腐蚀环境特征,以及点蚀、缝隙腐蚀、电偶腐蚀、微生物腐蚀和应力腐蚀开裂等舰船用金属材料常发生的腐蚀类型。综述了目前对舰船用金属材料腐蚀防护采取的措施,重点关注了表面涂镀层和改性技术的研究进展。最后,提出了舰船用金属材料腐蚀防护未来的研究方向,需从加强腐蚀机理研究、建立腐蚀数据库和发展新型表面腐蚀防护技术3方面入手。     

南海海港疏浚淤泥悬浮物对海洋动物的急性毒性效应

为评价海港疏浚淤泥对倾倒海区海洋动物的影响,对疏浚淤泥悬浮相进行了生物急性毒性试验。研究结果表明：疏浚淤泥悬浮相对浮游甲壳类的致毒效应明显。22.0～24.0℃试验水温时,悬浮相对卤虫无节幼体和浮游挠足类的急性毒性试验结果分别为：96hLC₅₀为71.6mg/L（卤虫无节幼体）,48hLC₅₀为61.3mg/L（浮游挠足类）。低浓度和低温时,悬浮相对前鳞鲻（Mugilophuyseni）幼鱼的致毒效应不明显。随温度的升高,毒性效应亦增强。试验水温为18.8～20.0℃时,悬浮相对前鳞鲻幼鱼24h和96hLC₅₀分别为5801.3mg/L和5045.5mg/L;而当试验水温升至22.0～24.0℃时,悬浮相对前鳞鲻幼鱼24、48、72、96hLC₅₀分别为1996.4、769.9、592.8及556.3mg/L。     

热带海洋环境中5083铝合金腐蚀行为研究

目的 研究某岛礁不同海洋区带环境中5083铝合金的腐蚀规律。方法 在某岛礁进行海洋多区带腐蚀试验,利用表面微观形貌观测、腐蚀产物分析、质量损失测试及点蚀深度测量等手段,对比分析铝合金在不同海洋区带中的腐蚀形貌、腐蚀速率和点蚀深度。结果 5083铝合金在某岛礁海洋全浸区带环境中的腐蚀速率最大,大气区带中的腐蚀速率最小,在潮差区带的腐蚀速率介于二者之间。试样在海洋不同区带主要发生局部腐蚀,大气区试样的最大点蚀深度最大,而潮差区试样的最大点蚀深度最小。在不同海洋区带,铝合金腐蚀产物和附着物的混合物中均含有钙元素,大气区钙元素含量远低于潮差区和全浸区,潮差区和全浸区铝合金表面的腐蚀产物和附着物混合物中主要含有CaCO₃、CaSiO₃和Al₂O₃。结论 不同海洋区带环境中,5083铝合金的腐蚀速率差别较大,潮差区和全浸区材料表面附着大量污损生物和矿物质。     

珠江三角洲机动车排放控制措施协同效应分析

预测了2015年珠江三角洲机动车空气污染物和温室气体排放量,设计了6类单一控制、技术控制、结构控制以及综合控制措施的情景,并运用基准线年排放清单编制和协同效应坐标系法分析了污染物与温室气体减排的协同效应.结果表明,按目前机动车保有量增长趋势,2015年污染物和温室气体将以18%~120%的幅度增加;各控制措施下污染物和温室气体排放量均有下降,且均具有正向的协同效应,但减排的贡献差异较大.6类单一控制措施中淘汰黄标车和结构性控制措施分别对各污染物和温室气体的削减效果最明显,减排幅度均在40%以上,且正向协同效应突出,但相比其他措施,结构性控制措施实施难度大.     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Vertical fiscal externalities and the environment

We show that imposition of a state-level environmental tax in a federation crowds out pre-existing federal taxes. We explain how this vertical fiscal externality can lead unilateral state-level environmental policy to generate a welfare gain in the implementing state, at the expense of other states, even absent any environmental benefits. Using a computable general equilibrium model of the Canadian federation, we show that vertical fiscal externalities can be the major determinant of the welfare change following environmental policy implementation by a state government. Our numerical simulations indicate that – as a consequence of vertical fiscal externalities – state governments can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by over 20 percent without any net cost to themselves.     

Credibility and advocacy in conservation science

Conservation policy sits at the nexus of natural science and politics. On the one hand, conservation scientists strive to maintain scientific credibility by emphasizing that their research findings are the result of disinterested observations of reality. On the other hand, conservation scientists are committed to conservation even if they do not advocate a particular policy. The professional conservation literature offers guidance on negotiating the relationship between scientific objectivity and political advocacy without damaging conservation science's credibility. The value of this guidance, however, may be restricted by limited recognition of credibility's multidimensionality and emergent nature: it emerges through perceptions of expertise, goodwill, and trustworthiness. We used content analysis of the literature to determine how credibility is framed in conservation science as it relates to apparent contradictions between science and advocacy. Credibility typically was framed as a static entity lacking dimensionality. Authors identified expertise or trustworthiness as important, but rarely mentioned goodwill. They usually did not identify expertise, goodwill, or trustworthiness as dimensions of credibility or recognize interactions among these 3 dimensions of credibility. This oversimplification may limit the ability of conservation scientists to contribute to biodiversity conservation. Accounting for the emergent quality and multidimensionality of credibility should enable conservation scientists to advance biodiversity conservation more effectively.     

Implications of Macroalgal Isolation by Distance for Networks of Marine Protected Areas

The global extent of macroalgal forests is declining, greatly affecting marine biodiversity at broad scales through the effects macroalgae have on ecosystem processes, habitat provision, and food web support. Networks of marine protected areas comprise one potential tool that may safeguard gene flow among macroalgal populations in the face of increasing population fragmentation caused by pollution, habitat modification, climate change, algal harvesting, trophic cascades, and other anthropogenic stressors. Optimal design of protected area networks requires knowledge of effective dispersal distances for a range of macroalgae. We conducted a global meta‐analysis based on data in the published literature to determine the generality of relation between genetic differentiation and geographic distance among macroalgal populations. We also examined whether spatial genetic variation differed significantly with respect to higher taxon, life history, and habitat characteristics. We found clear evidence of population isolation by distance across a multitude of macroalgal species. Genetic and geographic distance were positively correlated across 49 studies; a modal distance of 50–100 km maintained F_ST < 0.2. This relation was consistent for all algal divisions, life cycles, habitats, and molecular marker classes investigated. Incorporating knowledge of the spatial scales of gene flow into the design of marine protected area networks will help moderate anthropogenic increases in population isolation and inbreeding and contribute to the resilience of macroalgal forests. Implicaciones del Aislamiento por Distancia de Macroalgas para Redes de Áreas Marinas Protegidas