低湖平原典型湖垸水系规划数学模型——新兴垸排涝灌溉系统最优规划

以“四湖”地区典型湖垸（新兴垸）为背景，给出了典型湖垸水利系统满足综合设计排涝标准的评价准则。用大系统理论与方法，建立了该湖垸水利规划的大系统数学模型，提出了根据子系统之间的关联变量修建节制闸的设计思想，从而使排涝灌溉一体化。最后，用动态规划方法，给出了递推关系式。     

西南水闸的改建方案对下游水体水质影响研究

西南涌属于北江下游大堤左岸的分洪河道。西南水闸重建后,通过调节西南水闸闸孔的开度,引入北江水进行河涌整治,将导致西南涌上游污染物向下游迁移,但涨潮时须关闸门,不让污染较严重的西南涌水进入北江。由于下游珠江口河水的上溯,上下游河水交汇处河水流速最小,污染物的交换能力最弱,导致污染物的最大浓度沉积。本研究将应用珠江口一维感潮河网模型,从水环境效果的角度出发,模拟分析在水环境容量较小的平、枯水期,不同的引水方案对水质的影响程度,提出最佳引水方案和河涌整治措施建议。     

基于HJ-1A卫星超光谱数据的太湖叶绿素a浓度及悬浮物浓度反演

通过对2010年5月2日太湖HJ-1A卫星超光谱影像的几何纠正和6S模型辐射校正,以及水体实测光谱数据和影像光谱数据分析,将太湖28个水体采样点光谱数据分别进行归一化处理和一阶微分处理后,选取和水质参数相关系数最大的波段或波段组合建立反演模型,获得太湖叶绿素a浓度以及悬浮物浓度的空间分布图.研究表明,超光谱影像B73波...     

基于空间面板模型的碳排放影响因素分析——以长江经济带为例

随着全球变暖问题的日益严峻,气候问题引起了国际社会的广泛关注。长江经济带作为中国区域发展"三大战略"之一,面临着严峻的碳减排压力。为此,以二氧化碳排放为测度指标,定量分析了1998~2012年长江经济带二氧化碳的时空格局特征,并构建碳排放影响因素的空间面板模型,分析了产业结构、人口总量、经济水平、技术水平与城市化水平对长江经济带碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:1碳排放的绝对差异呈增大趋势,相对差异呈波动变化趋势;碳排放与人均GDP(1997年不变价)的相关性较弱;2碳排放空间格局相对稳定,高碳排放区域以江苏为中心,逐渐向四周扩散;3空间面板模型结果表明:人口总量是影响长江经济带碳排放时空格局演化的决定性因素,其次依次为经济水平、技术水平和城市化水平。     

植物滞尘分析及其数学表达模式

在植被的树冠结构分析、植物滞尘机理和粉尘沉降速度半经验公式的基础上,建立了植物滞留大气颗粒物的数学表达式。利用Beta功能函数φθ(X)、叶面的投影面积、叶面积密度a(z)、叶投影面积分布参数Kx、Kz等描述不同植被冠层的结构特征,并分析了冠层内的空气动力变化和树冠内气溶胶的平衡公式。借鉴Slinn的颗粒物沉降半经验公式、Petroffa等的阔叶滞尘计算模式,植物滞尘沉降通量数学表达式以树冠中树叶的位置为变量、由颗粒物在单片树叶上的各物理机制的沉降速度积分而成。结合国内外植物上沉降速度的试验结果和植物滞尘沉降通量公式的分析结果对影响植物滞尘的主要因素进行了比较分析。     

生理药代动力学模型及其在健康风险评价中的应用研究进展

生理药代动力学(Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic,PBPK)模型在健康风险评估中的应用逐渐成为研究的焦点.简要阐述了PBPK模型的定义及发展历程,在此基础上详细介绍了PBPK模型建立的过程及其在致癌风险评估、混合物健康风险评估中的应用.最后,总结了该模型在健康风险评估应用中的受限因素,提出跨学科合作有利于解决这些受限因素,从而进一步推进该模型在混合物健康风险评价中的应用.     

低速城市道路交通噪声预测中噪声源强计算模式的适用性分析研究

为研究各种源强计算模式对低速城市道路噪声预测的适用性,本文选取了安徽省合肥市运营稳定的1条低速城市道路进行实测.将实测的噪声结果与分别采用3种平均车速计算公式(包括设计车速、JTJ 005-96规范车速、JTG B03-2006规范车速)、3种源强计算模式(包括JTJ 005-96规范源强模式、JTG B03-2006规范源强模式、卓春晖报道的源强模式)预测出的结果进行对比.结果表明,采用道路设计车速、卓春晖报道的源强模式预测的结果与实测值最为相符.     

层次分析法在闽南沿海山地混交林优化模式选择上的应用

采用层次分析法(AHP)对闽南沿海山地各混交经营模式进行层次决策选择,从层次选择模型和判断矩阵的构建入手,对评价因子和混交优化模式进行排序并经一致性检验,结果表明,所构建的判断矩阵的随机一致性比率=0.0646<0.10,总排序的=0.0516<0.10,均具有满意的一致性和可靠性,选择出的优化模式与现实生产实际相吻合,说明层次分析法在混交林经营模式的定量化选择上的应用是可行的.     

A complex social structure with fission–fusion properties can emerge from a simple foraging model

Precisely how ecological factors influence animal social structure is far from clear. We explore this question using an agent-based model inspired by the fission–fusion society of spider monkeys (Ateles spp). Our model introduces a realistic, complex foraging environment composed of many resource patches with size varying as an inverse power law frequency distribution with exponent β. Foragers do not interact among them and start from random initial locations. They have either a complete or a partial knowledge of the environment and maximize the ratio between the size of the next visited patch and the distance traveled to it, ignoring previously visited patches. At intermediate values of β, when large patches are neither too scarce nor too abundant, foragers form groups (coincide at the same patch) with a similar size frequency distribution as the spider monkey’s subgroups. Fission–fusion events create a network of associations that contains weak bonds among foragers that meet only rarely and strong bonds among those that repeat associations more frequently than would be expected by chance. The latter form subnetworks with the highest number of bonds and a high clustering coefficient at intermediate values of β. The weak bonds enable the whole social network to percolate. Some of our results are similar to those found in long-term field studies of spider monkeys and other fission–fusion species. We conclude that hypotheses about the ecological causes of fission–fusion and the origin of complex social structures should consider the heterogeneity and complexity of the environment in which social animals live.     

Enchytraeid population dynamics: Resource limitation and size-dependent mortality

Enchytraeids are regarded as keystone soil organisms in forest ecosystems. Their abundance and biomass fluctuate widely. Predicting the consequences of anthropogenic disturbances requires an understanding of the mechanisms underlying enchytraeid population dynamics. Here I develop a simple model, which predicts that the type of dynamics is controlled by resource input rate. If fungal resource input is a discrete event once a year, an exponential growth phase is followed by starvation and sharp decline of enchytraeid abundance. Model simulations with three different forcing functions were compared to field data. Initial parameter values were obtained from various independent sources, and parameters were estimated by minimizing the residual sum of squares. The best fitting model with resource addition once a year explained 39% of the variation in enchytraeid biomass over an 8-year study period. Further, variation in rainfall explained 59% of the variation in R² of the exponential phase models, which is also an index of the stability of population size-structure. The results emphasize the importance of resource limitation for enchytraeid population dynamics and support the hypothesis that the mortality during the decline phase is size-dependent.