铸造废砂堆放对地下水的影响预测

通过现场实地调查和实验室分析,结合数学计算模式,对东风公司铸造废渣堆埋场对周围地下水的影响进行了分析与预测。结果表明该废渣场在其运行年限11a内在垂直方向上的影响范围为3m,不会对该地区地下水环境产生不良影响。     

A710钢断裂韧性与再热裂纹扩展量的关联数模

分析了焊后再热裂纹扩展量与断裂韧性的关系,建立了A710钢J积分断裂韧性随裂纹扩展量Δa变化的关联数模,从而为进一步研究材料断裂机理,为含损压力容器临界裂纹尺寸提供了较为可靠的设计判据.     

珠江口区域海上溢漏污染物动态预测系统的开发与应用

为了对《珠江口区域溢油应急计划》提供决策支持,在国内外最新研究成果基础上,针对珠江口海域的环境特点研究开发了先进实用的“珠江口区域海上溢漏污染动态预测系统”,综合有三维潮流模型、三维溢油与化学品漂移扩散模型、溢油风化模型、应急反应模型、以及电子海图、地理信息系统(GIS)、数据库等关键技术,能够快速准确地预测并可视化显示不同种类的溢漏油品、化学品在水面及水体中的漂移扩散范同和性质变化过程,还可以同时显示环境敏感区和应急人员设备分布等相关信息。经实际溢油案例应用表明,系统的预测结果与现场实际情况相符。此系统的成功开发应用将有效地提高对船舶污染事故的应急指挥效率。     

Comparative study of four QSAR models of aromatic compounds to aquatic organisms

Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs)were developed for 43 aromatic compounds toxicity to Photobacterium phosphoreum and Daphnia magna based on four methods: octanol/water partition coefficient, linear solvation energy relationship, molecular connectivity index and group contribution. Through the evaluation of four QSAR methods, LSER was proved to be the best. And it applied to the widest range of chemicals with the greatest accuracy.     

生物除磷机理与数学模型的探讨

概述了生物除磷在厌氧、缺氧和好氧条件下的反应机理，并基于对反硝化聚磷力的认识将现有除磷数学模型发展划分为两个阶段。基于除磷数学模拟所包含的涉磷组分、计量学参数、动力学参数以及生物衰减理论等对两阶段模型进行了较为详细的介绍和比较，认为Delft模型是现有模型中比较完善的，并提出今后发展除磷数学模型应重点解决的问题。     

北京市大气环境二氧化硫浓度分布初探

利用北京市大气自动监测系统冬季逐时二氧化硫浓度监测资料，分析研究了对数正态分布，Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，指数分布等常用分布模型对监测资料人布推迟合的适用性，并估算出各种分布模型的参数值。研究发现城区及高百分位数二氧化硫浓度频率分布符合Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，近郊及背景站的浓度分布符合常用的对数正态分布，二氧化硫浓度的频率分布不符合指数分布规律。     

Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

A simulation analysis of the migration and transformation of pollutants contained in landfill leachate

A dynamic composite model for a soil-water system that can be used to simulate the movement of leachate from a landfill. The composite model includes nine sub-models that trace water movement and the migration and transformation of five pollutants(organic N, NE4^- ,NO3^- , NO2^-, and Cl^ - ) in saturated and unsaturated soil. The model to simulate the movement of leachate from a landfill in Laogang Town,Shanghai City was used. In this application, the values for the model parameters were oblained by performing a laboratory simulation experimentof water movement and pollutant migration and transformation in soil columns. Soil and leachate obtained from the landfill site and its vicinitywere used in the laboratory experiments. The model was then used to simulate leachate movement and pollutant activity during the ten-year period when the landfill was in operation and in the twenty-year period following its closure. The simulation results revealed that the leachate migrated into the groundwater at the rate of 90-100 meters per year. This model can be applied in the design of future landfills in China for the purpose of assessing and forecasting leachate plumes.     

连铸连轧铝杆延伸率的预测与控制

分析了影响电工铝杆延伸率的主要因素 ,利用多元回归建立了铝杆延伸率的主要影响因素之间的数学模型 ,为有效地对铝杆进行质量预测与控制奠定了基础。     

资源承载力监测——以西藏“一江两河”地区为例

对自然资源的无序开发和对生态系统的破坏制约了我国的可持续发展。资源承载力是描述地区发展受自然资源限制的重要工具,也是衡量区域可持续发展的重要依据。基于西藏“一江两河”地区县级统计数据,定量计算水、土和生态等资源承载力,并根据定量评价结果构建资源承载力监测体系并应用于“一江两河”地区。研究结果表明:（1）“一江两河”地区人粮关系趋于紧张,部分地区人口—粮食—土地矛盾突出,76.5%的县土地资源承载力下降,83.3%的县土地资源承载指数增长;“一江两河”地区各县（市、区）水资源承载力远大于实际人口,承载指数均小于0.05,但77.8%的县水资源承载力下降,县域承载指数均增长;各县生态承载力增长,承载指数下降,部分县处于生态赤字状态。（2）“一江两河”地区资源承载力的主要制约因素由生态承载力转变为土地资源承载力。2000—2015年,在“一江两河”地区资源承载力处于临界超载或超载的县中,对资源承载状态影响最大的资源承载力由生态承载力逐步转变为土地资源承载力。（3）“一江两河”地区资源承载力等级逐渐提升,可能带来的危害或负面影响程度降低。2000—2015年,资源承载力为三级（中度负载）及以下等级的县由15个（83.3%）降至3个（16.7%）。资源承载力长效监测机制的建立有助于明晰资源开发利用现状,科学利用区域自然资源,促进地区生态保护和可持续发展。