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181.
Lowell F W. Duell 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1994,30(5):841-859
ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River. 相似文献
182.
R. C. Kattelmann N. H. Berg M. K. Pack 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(2):273-280
A simple simulation model designed to monitor snow-packs of the central Sierra Nevada is described. The model estimates average snow water equivalent for rectangular subregions in the area. Static subregion characteristics, daily precipitation and mean and minimum air temperatures measured at three index stations are the only needed input values. A water balance technique simulates daily snowpack changes in each subregion. Reasonable basinwide water equivalent values are produced. The procedure should be useful for estimating snow water distribution in large mountainous watersheds. 相似文献
183.
Richard L. Cooley Aldo V. Vecchia 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1987,23(4):581-599
ABSTRACT: A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that includsion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals. 相似文献
184.
Rochelle L. Rittmaster David K. Mueller 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(1):81-89
ABSTRACT: A study was performed to identify sources of solute loading to the Dirty Devil River and its major tributaries, in southeastern Utah. A primary goal was to determine the contribution of gypsum dissolution to total dissolved solids concentration, and its potential increase in the future if salinity control measures are instituted. Synoptic field data were collected during the low flow period in October 1983. Data were analyzed using the geochemistry models WATEQF and BALANCE to postulate mineral reactions leading to solute loading. Three known sources of solute loading, involving two different geochemical mechanisms, were clearly discernable. Two additional areas of possible gypsum dissolution were located. 相似文献
185.
Thanakorn Uan-On Otto J. Helweg 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(2):261-268
ABSTRACT: The Nonlinear Risk-Benefit (NRB) Algorithm includes risk as one of the objectives in a multiple-objective optimization problem. The NRB Algorithm is derived by extending the Surrogate Worth Trade-Off method to quadratic programming. This category of problem is common in water resources planning and design, especially multipurpose reservoir systems. Consequently, an example is given using the algorithm for optimally operating a multipurpose reservoir. 相似文献
186.
Daniel E. Canfield 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1983,19(2):255-262
ABSTRACT: Models for the prediction of chlorophyll a concentrations were developed and tested using data on 223 Florida lakes. A statistical analysis showed that the best model was log (Chl a) =?2.49 + 0.269 log (TP) + 1.06 log (TN) or log (Chl a) =?2.49 + 1.06 log (TN/TP) + 1.33 log (TP) where Chl a is the chlorophyll a concentration (mg m-3), TP is the total phosphorus concentration (mg m-3) and TN is the total nitrogen concentration (mg m-3). The model yields unbiased estimates of chlorophyll a concentrations over a wide range of lake types and has a 95 percent confidence interval of 29–319 percent of the calculated chlorophyll a concentrations. Other models, especially the published Dillon-Rigler and Jones-Bachmann phosphorus-chlorophyll models, are less precise when applied to Florida lakes. The data support the hypothesis that nitrogen is an important limiting nutrient in hypereutrophic lakes. 相似文献
187.
Jirka ;imnek Diederik Jacques Martinus Th. Van Genuchten Dirk Mallants 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(6):1537-1547
Abstract: The transport of reactive contaminants in the subsurface is generally affected by a large number of nonlinear and often interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes. Simulating these processes requires a comprehensive reactive transport code that couples the physical processes of water flow and advective-dispersive transport with a range of biogeochemical processes. Two recently developed coupled geochemical models that are both based on the HYDRUS-1D software package for variably saturated flow and transport are summarized in this paper. One model resulted from coupling HYDRUS-1D with the UNSATCHEM module. While restricted to major ion chemistry, this program enables quantitative predictions of such problems as analyzing the effects of salinity on plant growth and the amount of water and amendments required to reclaim salt-affected soil profiles. The second model, HPI, resulted from coupling HYDRUS-1D with the PHREEQC biogeochemical code. The latter program accounts for a wide range of instantaneous or kinetic chemical and biological reactions, including complexation, cation exchange, surface complexation, precipitation dissolution and/or redox reactions. The versatility of HP1 is illustrated in this paper by means of two examples: the leaching of toxic trace elements and the transport of the explosive TNT and its degradation products. 相似文献
188.
Puneet Srivastava James N. McNair Thomas E. Johnson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(3):545-563
ABSTRACT: The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R2) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R2 were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were ?0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds. 相似文献
189.
Xixi Wang Assefa M. Melesse 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(5):1217-1236
ABSTRACT: Soil data comprise a basic input of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for a watershed application. For watersheds where site specific soil data are unavailable, the two U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) soil databases, the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) and Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) databases, may be the best alternatives. Although it has been noted that SWAT models using the STATSGO and SSURGO data may give different simulation results for water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields, information is scarce on the effects of using these two databases in predicting streamflows that are predominantly generated from melting snow in spring. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of using STATSGO versus SSURGO as an input for the SWAT model's simulation of the streamflows in the upper 45 percent of the Elm River watershed in eastern North Dakota. Designating the model as SWAT‐STATSGO when the STATSGO data were used and SWAT‐SSURGO when the SSURGO data were used, SWAT‐STATSGO and SWAT‐SSURGO were separately calibrated and validated using the observed daily streamflows. The results indicated that SWAT‐SSURGO provided an overall better prediction of the discharges than SWAT‐STATSGO, although both did a good and comparable job of predicting the high streamflows. However, SWAT‐STATSGO predicted the low streamflows more accurately and had a slightly better performance during the validation period. In addition, the discrepancies between the discharges predicted by these two SWAT models tended to be larger at upstream locations than at those farther downstream within the study area. 相似文献
190.
Estimation of Cumulative Frequency Distribution for Carbon Monoxide Concentration from Wind-Speed Data, in Buenos Aires (Argentina) 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
In this article we apply and test a methodology to estimate cumulative frequency distribution for air pollutant concentration from wind-speed data. We use the inverse relationship after Simpson et al. (Atmospheric Environment, 19, 75–82, 1985) between the opposing percentile values in the statistical distributions for air pollutant concentrations and wind-speed data. This relationship is valid, irrespective of the statistical distributions of both variables, if an inverse relationship between them is also applicable. The available data are five years of 8-h average carbon monoxide concentration and 8-h mean wind-speed, observed in Buenos Aires (Argentina). The performance of the obtained empirical expressions in estimating cumulative frequency distributions for 8-h CO is statistically evaluated. The results show that it is possible to obtain an acceptable cumulative frequency distribution for 8-h CO concentration at the site if the cumulative frequency distribution for wind-speed is known. Q–Q plots show a good agreement between estimated and observed values. From our data, the mean relative error of the estimations was found to be as much as 8.0%. 相似文献