丝栗栲种群生命过程及谱分析

以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础，编制丝栗栲种群静态生命表，绘制存活曲线，死亡率曲线，亏损度曲线，死亡密度函数曲线。积累死亡函数曲线和危险率函数曲线，分析种群生命过程。结果表明，丝栗栲有2个死亡高峰，存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。并应用谱分析方法研究丝栗栲种群动态，结果表明，在丝栗栲种群自然更新过程中存在着明显的周期性。     

Will Limits of the Earth's Resources Control Human Numbers?

The current world population is 6 billion people. Even if we adopted a worldwide policy resulting in only 2.1 children born per couple, more than 60 years would pass before the world population stabilized at approximately 12 billion. The reason stabilization would take more than 60 years is the population momentum – the young age distribution – of the world population. Natural resources are already severely limited, and there is emerging evidence that natural forces already starting to control human population numbers through malnutrition and other severe diseases. At present, more than 3 billion people worldwide are malnourished; grain production per capita has been declining since 1983; irrigation per capita has declined 12% during the past decade; cropland per capita has declined 20% during the past decade; fish production per capita has declined 7% during the past decade; per capita fertilizer supplies essential for food production have declined 23% during the past decade; loss of food to pests has not decreased below 50% since 1990; and pollution of water, air, and land has increased, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of humans suffering from serious, pollution-related diseases. Clearly, human numbers cannot continue to increase.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

REDUCING THE COST OF CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC-HYDRAULIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous hydrologic-hydraulic-water quality models is inhibited by their large computer run costs relative to cost incurred with discrete event models. The fixed recurrence interval transfer (FRIT) technique is a means of achieving substantial reductions in computer costs associated with continuous models while retaining their technical advantages. The FRIT technique is applicable where it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence interval of the response of a watershed to a causative meteorologic event is the same for both “before” and “after” conditions. Example applications of the FRIT technique to the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floodwater storage, land use changes, and channel modifications are presented to demonstrate the procedure, to suggest the expected accuracy, and to illustrate how computer run costs might be reduced by 99% or more. The FRIT technique is intended for preliminary assessment of the impact of alternative land use conditions and structural water control measures.     

Acute and chronic effects of clofibrate and clofibric acid on the enzymes acetylcholinesterase, lactate dehydrogenase and catalase of the mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki

The objective of this study was to investigate both acute and chronic effects of clofibrate and clofibric acid on the enzymes acetylcholinesterase (AChE), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and catalase (CAT) of the mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). AChE, commonly used as a biomarker of neurotoxicity, was determined in the total head. LDH, an important enzyme of anaerobic metabolism, was quantified in dorsal muscle, and CAT, enzyme which has been used as indicative parameter of peroxisome proliferation, was determined in the liver. Furthermore, alterations of body and liver weight were also determined, through the calculation of the ratios final body weight/initial body weight, liver weight/final body weight, liver weight/gills weight and liver weight/head weight. Acute exposure of G. holbrooki to both clofibrate and clofibric acid induced a decrease in liver CAT activity, an increase in muscle LDH activity, while no effects were observed on AChE activity. However, chronic exposure did not alter significantly the enzymatic activities, suggesting reduced or null effects over these pathways, relative to effects reported in other species. No effects were observed for the calculated ratios, except a significant weight reduction for males chronically exposed to clofibrate.     

水安全及城市水安全研究进展与趋势

归纳和总结国内外水安全及城市水安全相关研究实践及其所用的评价指标体系,并对几种常用模型与方法的应用情况及其各自的特点进行分析,针对目前水安全及城市水安全研究中存在的主要问题,指出水安全及城市水安全进一步研究的方向:从自然、生态环境、社会经济、人文4个基本方向,以系统性、持续性、动态性和层次性4个特征为基础,分析水安全及城市水安全的概念与内涵;根据研究区域特征及其主要水安全问题建立评价指标体系;以研究者对各个模型的理解程度及驾驭能力为准则选用或改造现有模型与方法;针对加强城市应急水源地建设、突发性水安全事件应急预案、湿润地区水安全等问题开展研究。     

现代统计信息分析技术在安全工程方面的应用——层次分析法原理

层次分析法是一种决策新技术,它利用矩阵特征值和特征向量运算,帮助人们进行群组判断,以确定某些定性变量的赋值。介绍了其基本原理及计算方法。     

上海市生活垃圾处置计划量指标测算模型初探

对生活垃圾处置计划管理政策的意义、生活垃圾处置计划指标测算模型建立的意义和作用进行分析,对建立模型的因素、计算公式、计算流程等进行详细说明,并对3个典型区县的实际情况进行了计算和分析,总结了模型存在的问题和完善方向。