长江口及邻近海域春夏季有色溶解有机物时空分布特征及主要影响因素

利用三维荧光光谱(EEMs)-平行因子(PARAFAC)分析技术对长江口及邻近海域春季(2015年3月)和夏季(2015年7月)有色溶解有机物(CDOM)的荧光组成及分布特征进行分析.共识别出2类4个荧光组分,即类腐殖质组分C1(370/495nm)、C2(330/405 nm)、C3(365/440 nm)及类蛋白质组分C4(295/345 nm).春夏季各层4个荧光组分分布模式基本一致,从长江口到邻近海域逐渐降低.春季类腐殖质组分的高值区分布在长江口内,而类蛋白组分高值区位于南槽附近区域,表层的CDOM主要来源于陆源输入和人类活动;中层荧光强度值比表层低,受陆源影响减弱;底层荧光强度值比中层略高,是由沉积物再悬浮造成的.各荧光组分在岱山县附近海域均有一个较高值,这与岛上的居民活动有关.夏季荧光组分高值区与春季相似,各层荧光组分值接近,说明夏季研究区域水体混合较均匀.春夏季腐殖化指数(HIX)在长江口较高,而生物指数(BIX)在邻近海域较高.将4个荧光组分(C1~C4)、吸收系数(a355)与盐度(S)、溶解有机碳(DOC)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、叶绿素a(Chl-a)、溶解氧(DO)做冗余分析.结果表明,4个荧光组分(C1~C4)与总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)主要受陆源输入、人类活动的影响,溶解有机碳(DOC)受陆源与海源的共同影响.本文利用三维荧光光谱-平行因子分析(EEMs-PARAFAC)技术结合多元统计方法解析了CDOM组成,清晰揭示了长江口及邻近海域CDOM的来源及主要影响因子,可为河口海域生源要素海洋生物地球化学研究提供有益的补充.     

基于TM与MODIS遥感数据的农业旱情监测——以河北省为例

以河北省冬小麦种植区域为研究区,基于TM和MOD IS遥感数据,利用植被供水指数法确定了研究区旱情等级。首先,将其与遥感解译获得的冬小麦空间分布图叠加得到受灾冬小麦空间分布图;然后以1 km的距离在受灾冬小麦周围做缓冲区,并与通过人口密度模型获得的人口密度空间分布图叠加,得出受灾人口空间分布;最后基于光能利用率改进模型构建粮食产量回归统计模型,得到粮食产量。目的是从粮食产量和作物受灾影响人口两个方面对农业受干旱影响情况进行遥感监测和定量评价,以期为相关部门制定防灾、抗灾措施提供科学依据。结果表明,2004年研究区:(1)春季受灾面积小,仅占16.4%;(2)旱情较轻,以轻旱为主,占受灾面积的89%;(3)冬小麦种植面积约为23 965.0 km2,受灾面积约606.3 km2,主要位于唐山市和保定市;(4)粮食产量回归统计模型精度达到了87%,冬小麦产量约为11939247 t,单产约为498.8 t/km2。     

Spectroscopic Distribution of Dissolved Organic Matter in a Dam Reservoir Impacted by Turbid Storm Runoff

Spectroscopic characteristics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in a large dam reservoir were determined using ultraviolet absorbance and fluorescence spectroscopy to investigate spatial distribution of DOM composition after turbid storm runoff. Water samples were collected along a longitudinal axis of the reservoir at three to four depths after a severe storm runoff. Vertical profiles of turbidity data showed that a turbid water layer was located at a middle depth of the entire reservoir. The spectroscopic characteristics of DOM samples in the turbid water layer were similar to those of terrestrial DOM, as demonstrated by the higher specific UV absorbance (SUVA) and the lower fluorescence emission intensity ratio (F ₄₅₀/F ₅₀₀) compared to other surrounding DOM samples in the reservoir. Synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy revealed that higher content of humic-like DOM composition was contained in the turbid water. Fluorescence excitation–emission matrix (EEM) showed that lower content of protein-like aromatic amino acids was present in the turbid water DOM. The highest protein-like fluorescence was typically observed at a bottom layer of each sampling location. The bottom water DOM exhibited extremely high protein-like florescence near the dam site. The particular observation was attributed to the low water temperature and the isolation of the local bottom water due to the upper location of the withdrawal outlet near the dam. Our results suggest that the distribution of DOM composition in a dam reservoir is strongly influenced by the outflow operation, such as selective withdrawal, as well as terrestrial-origin DOM inputs from storm runoff.     

Gradient analysis of the chrogenetic structure of lowland and highland scotch pine populations

Gradients of genetic distances (GGDs) between 26 adjacent cenopopulations of Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) along the transects through the distinct landscape-ecotopic isolation borders were analyzed graphically. The results made it possible to reveal and quantitatively estimate gradients and borders of gene-pool structural patterns in populations of this species in the central part of Northern Eurasia. In lowland areas, the most distinct borders were found between pine populations growing on dry lands and bogs (Pineta sphagnosa) in the forest zone of the Transural region, as well as between the Arakaragaiskii and Amankaragaiskii island pine forests in the steppe zone (Northern Turgai). In highland areas (the Urals and the Carpathians), the greatest GGDs were observed between low-mountain (about 600 m above sea level) and middle-mountain (850–900 m) populations. Analysis of GGDs is a promising gene-geographic method for determining population borders and studying the chorogenetic structure of species.     

Environmental implications of planned obsolescence and product lifetime: a literature review

The aim of this paper was to explore the implications of planned obsolescence (PO) and the associated product lifetime on the environmental impact of products. To achieve this task, a literature review was performed to assess both the historical context and recent situation of planned obsolescence. A search in scholarly journals was performed to evaluate to what extent product lifetime and PO have been discussed in the recent literature. Based on the findings, selected cases of PO are discussed and trends in the practice of limiting product lifetime are identified. Factors considered to have a significant influence on product lifetime have been identified and discussed. The discussion of case studies made it possible to establish the links between product design, manufacturing and associated impacts of lifetime. The role of the actors along the value chain is also considered to propose a business scheme, where the influences of consumer behaviour and design choices are crucial. Finally, strategies to facilitate the definition of different scenarios are given. These strategies may serve to increase the reliability of environmental assessment throughout a product life cycle.     

Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

Robustness of Meteorological Droughts in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations

We examine the robustness of a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating meteorological droughts and associated metrics in present‐day climate (1971‐2003) over the conterminous United States (U.S.). The RCMs that are part of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations are compared with multiple observations over the climatologically homogeneous regions of the U.S. The seasonal precipitation, climatology, drought attributes, and trends have been assessed. The reanalysis‐based multi‐model median RCM reasonably simulates observed statistical attributes of drought and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. However, models fail to simulate significant drying trend over the Southwest and West. Further, reanalysis‐based NARCCAP runs underestimate the observed drought frequency overall, with the exception of the Southwest; whereas they underestimate persistence in the drought‐affected areas over the Southwest and West‐North Central regions. However, global climate model‐driven NARCCAP ensembles tend to overestimate regional drought frequencies. Models exhibit considerable uncertainties while reproducing meteorological drought statistics, as evidenced by a general lack of agreement in the Hurst exponent, which in turn controls drought persistence. Water resources managers need to be aware of the limitations of current climate models, while regional climate modelers may want to fine‐tune their parameters to address impact‐relevant metrics.     

我国人口老龄化加速发展对城市化发展速度的影响

中国的城市化水平在过去的20余年里以年均超过一个百分点的速度提升,然而在城市化主要依靠人口乡城迁移推动的模式下,人口年龄结构老化对城市化发展的影响日渐显现。文章通过年龄移算法描述了乡城人口迁移流动的年龄模式,发现我国农村人口乡城迁移概率随年龄的分布呈现"中间大,两头小"的特征。然后,文章分析了此种年龄模式形成的原因,认为制度是影响乡城迁移年龄模式的决定性因素,制度变迁的缓慢性以及路径依赖决定了短期内我国人口乡城迁移年龄模式的稳定性。基于此,文章预测了人口老龄化对未来中国人口城市化发展的影响,得出的基本结论是,未来中国城市化发展的水平提高将进入一个相对平缓的时期,年度城市化水平的提升将显著低于过去一个时期,对未来10-20年中国城市化发展水平的预期未可过于乐观。针对这一结论,文章建议在未来的城市化过程中应完善社会融入机制和提升城市化质量。     

土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性和互动关系

土地城镇化与人口城镇化失调是我国目前城镇化进程中的一个突出问题。但对各地区土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性进行全面系统分析的研究相对较少。此外,鲜有研究对土地城镇化与人口城镇化之间的互动关系进行实证检验。本研究利用我国2005—2013年间的省级面板数据考察各省级行政区土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性,并通过构建和估计面板向量自回归模型探究土地城镇化与人口城镇化之间的互动关系。研究发现,土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性存在着显著的时空差异。在样本期的后半段(2009—2013年),多个省级行政区人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化的程度有所加深。根据全样本期内土地城镇化与人口城镇化非协调性的严重程度,可将各省级行政区划分为5个等级。城镇常住人口变化对建成区面积变化具有显著的正向影响;建成区面积变化对城镇常住人口变化的影响方向虽然为正,但该影响不具有统计显著性。从而表明人口城镇化对土地城镇化起到了推动作用,但土地城镇化却未能有效地带动和促进人口城镇化。此外,第二、三产业增加值变化对城镇常住人口变化具有显著的正向影响。研究从改革新增建设用地指标分配方式、抑制城市空间粗放扩张及推动户籍制度改革和基本公共服务均等化等方面提出了促进土地城镇化和人口城镇化协调发展的政策建议。