不同强度岩石中开挖圆形巷道的局部化过程模拟

利用FLAC模拟了不同粘聚力条件下圆形巷道的局部化过程。为了模拟巷道开挖,利用编写的F ISH函数删除巷道内部的单元。岩石服从莫尔库仑剪破坏与拉破坏复合的破坏准则,破坏之后呈现应变软化-理想塑性行为。文中模拟分为3步:首先,将静水压力施加在模型上,直到达到静力平衡状态;然后,利用编写的F ISH函数开挖巷道;最后,计算重新开始,直到达到静力平衡状态或者塑性流动状态。模拟结果表明,随着粘聚力的降低,巷道围岩的破坏模式首先由孔壁附近零星单元的破坏向4个对称的小V形坑式剪切破坏转变,然后由包含若干小V形坑的大V形坑式剪切破坏向巷道全断面的破坏转变。前三者破坏发生后,巷道围岩仍然能保持稳定。与最大塑性拉伸应变相比,最大剪切应变增量、最大塑性剪切应变要高得多;最大剪切应变增量、最大塑性剪切应变相差不大;随着粘聚力的增加,三者均越来越小。     

考虑应变速率影响的混凝土重力坝非线性地震响应分析

通过引入应变速率、损伤变量以及刚度退化指标等参数,建立了应变率相关的混凝土弹塑性损伤模型。运用该模型对某重力坝厂房坝段分别就率相关及率无关两种情况进行了三维非线性地震响应时程分析。深入研究了混凝土应变速率等相关特性对结构动力响应的影响。结果表明,应变速率对混凝土的力学性能有一定的影响,随着应变速率的增加,坝体结构的变形减小,主拉应力有所提高,应变能有所减小以及开裂损伤有一定的降低。所得结论对混凝土重力坝的震害研究有一定的参考价值。     

弹性滑移支座力学性能的试验研究

介绍了弹性滑移支座的原理、构造和特点;通过对其在不同工况下的性能试验,研究了竖向荷载、位移幅值以及加载频率对弹性滑移支座力学性能的影响,并给出了试验值与理论计算值之间的对比。研究结果表明:弹性滑移支座具有良好的工作性能,滞回曲线饱满,耗能能力强;竖向荷载和加载频率对弹性滑移支座的力学性能有一定的影响,而位移幅值对其影响较小;弹性滑移支座的恢复力模型,可以用考虑速度的指数摩擦力模型来描述,并且模拟得较为准确。     

张北地震序列的尾波Qc值研究

采用尾波单次散射模型,选取张北地震序列70条波形记录,计算了张北地区t=58.88s时的尾波QC值:QC(f)=132.6±20f0.96±0.14。研究中发现,随流逝时间的增加QC逐渐增大,当流逝时间>120s时,出现逆转,QC迅速减小。文中采用频率域方法计算QC值,尾波功率谱计算自t>2ts开始,选用垂直向波形记录,取时间窗长为5.12s,步长2.56s向前滑动,每个时间窗两端5%的数据与余弦函数相乘,然后做FFT变换,分别计算9个中心频点各时间窗的能量密度谱,尾波流逝时间取各时间窗的中心点。当信号的能量密度<4倍的背景噪声能量密度时,尾波能量密度取值结束。求得能量密度谱后,线性拟合可求得不同流逝时间各频点的QC值。     

城市大气质量模式研究进展

本文通过对大气质量模式发展历史的回顾,及其发展趋势的讨论,认为城市大气质量预报模式的建立与发展主要受以下三个动态因素的支配：（１）政府环境管理目标;（２）科学进步;（３）计算机及信息处理和通讯技术。结合三要素就建立我国城市空气质量预报系统框架进行了讨论。     

粘性泥石流运动模型的实验研究

粘性泥石流运动模型的研究因受实验条件的限制,还很不完善。国内外学者应用较多的５种模型都有一定的适用性,但也都存在不同的缺陷。本文应用粘性泥石流土样中的细颗粒和粗颗粒进行流变实验,不仅得到了粗颗粒在浆体中的沉降特性和泥石流体的流变特性,还研究了粘性泥石流运动模型及其参数。所提模型能很好地反映泥石流体的流变特性,较现有的５种模型能更好地描述粘性泥石流。     

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes,as determined by solid-state 13C NMR and elemental analyses

Using solid state ¹³C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

基于优化模型的抚仙湖营养物标准技术经济评估方法

在对美国水质标准经济分析研究的基础上,结合我国环境管理的实际情况,构建湖泊营养物标准的技术经济评估框架。计算标准建议值条件下的湖泊营养物容量及入量湖,得到削减量。通过不确定性优化模型对削减量进行分配,核算湖泊富营养化控制成本,并假设标准执行后,对流域经济造成的影响进行评估。将该方法应用于抚仙湖营养物标准的技术经济评估系统,结果表明,通过优化模型对削减量进行分配的削减成本较原规划低,通过构建的技术经济评估框架对该成本进行评估,标准执行后,对流域经济影响适中。     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.