Applying integrated assessment methodologies to air quality plans: Two European cases

Air pollution Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) can be used for determining how emissions should be reduced to improve air quality and to protect human health in a cost-efficient way. The application of IAM is also useful to spread information to the general public and to explain the effectiveness of proposed Air Quality Plans. In this paper, the application of the RIAT+ system to determine suitable abatement measures to improve the air quality at a regional/local level is presented for two European cases: the Brussels Capital Region (Belgium) and the Porto Urban Area (Portugal). Both regions are affected with PM10 or NO₂ concentrations that exceed the limit values specified by the European Union legislation. To properly assess air quality abatement measures a surrogate model was used, allowing the implementation of an efficient optimization procedure. This model is derived in both cases through a set of simulations performed using a Chemistry Transport Model fed with different emission reduction scenarios. In addition, internal costs (due to the implementation of emission reduction measures) and external costs (due to population exposure to air pollutant concentrations) of policy options were considered. The application of this integrated assessment modelling system in scenario (Brussels case) and optimization (Porto) modes contributes to identifying some advantages and limitations of these two approaches and also provides some guidance when urban air quality has to be assessed.     

Semi-analytical solution of two-dimensional sharp interface LNAPL transport models

In this paper, we present semi-analytical solutions for two-dimensional equations governing transport of Light Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids (LNAPL) in unconfined aquifers. The proposed model is based on sharp interface displacement and steady groundwater flow assumptions, where both the water–LNAPL interface and the LNAPL–air interface are represented as sharp interfaces. In the case of steady groundwater flow, these equations can be reduced to a two-dimensional nonlinear solute transport equation, with the LNAPL thickness in the free product lens being the primary unknown variable. The linearized form of this solute transport equation falls into the category of two-dimensional transport equation with time-dependent dispersion coefficients. This equation can be solved analytically for an infinite domain region. In this paper, the general form of the analytical solution for the transport equation, as well as the solutions for some specific cases are presented. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed solution, numerical results obtained for two example problems are discussed and presented comparatively with a finite-element solution and other more restrictive solutions available in the literature. Although the solutions discussed in this paper have some simplifying assumptions, such as sharp-interfaces between fluid phases, steady groundwater flow and homogeneous aquifer properties, the semi-analytical solutions presented in this study may be used effectively as bench mark solutions in evaluating LNAPL migration in the subsurface. These solutions are simple and cost effective to implement and may be used in the calibration of other more complex numerical solutions that can be found in the literature.     

A multiple criteria evaluation of sustainable agricultural development models using AHP

Selection of the appropriate agricultural development model has become an important issue in Iran. Using data from Fars province of Iran, the purpose of this paper is to use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for selecting between the two competing sustainable agricultural development models, which have been developed based on the general tenets of Ecological Modernization (EM) and De-Modernization (DM) theories. Farmers, environmentalists, board members of rural cooperative, rural women and experts from Fars Agricultural (Jehad-e-Keshavarzi) Organization participated in application of AHP to this study. They applied AHP to determine the priority of DM and EM based sustainable agricultural development models. Each group determined the priority of the two models for sustainable agricultural development. The findings indicated that ecological criteria i.e. wise use of resources, environmental protection and product quality are the most important criteria for sustainable agriculture of Iran, followed by economic criterion employment and social criterion participation. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the critical factors that affected the priority of alternatives. The results indicated that EM-based sustainable agricultural development model has a higher priority as the theoretical base of agricultural development of Iran. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

森林资源经济利用的政策模拟模型应用研究

林业政策在对森林资源的培育、保护和利用方面起相当大的作用.在市场机制作用的框架下林业政策的作用更多的是通过影响市场机制传递的产品和生产要素的价格信号,进而影响生产经营主体的收益成本预期及其决策行为,最终影响到对森林资源的培育、保护和利用的效果,因此分析和认清林业政策对林业发展的作用机制和影响效果有重要的意义.本文基于市场机制.以林业经济福利为目标,把森林资源培育的第一产业环节和以森林资源为原料的第二产业发展结合一起作为完整的产业链,构建一个林业的政策模拟模型.利用该模型,对木材价格、林业税费、信贷利率和采伐限额等林业经济政策的影响进行了定量分析,着重比较了林业产权制度改革前后政策变化所产生的效应,以及所具有的激励效果,从而认识林业政策的变动和调整如何影响政策目标,为政策的制定和对合理政策进行选择提供参考的依据.     

科尔沁沙地生态系统服务价值变化研究

研究土地利用变化引起的区域生态系统服务价值的改变。可定量评价土地利用活动对区域生态环境的影响。基于1995年和2000年的土地利用数据．应用谢高地等人制定的中国陆地生态系统单位面积服务价值表．估算了科尔沁沙地土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值的改变。结果表明。从1995—2000年5年间。科尔沁沙地的耕地增加4．87％。林地减少2．25％。草地减少0．03％．水域减少1．32％．湿地增加0．54％，城乡工矿居民用地减少3．21％。未利用地减少8．83％；研究区内土地利用变化的区域差异性很大．表现为大部分旗县仍维持着毁林毁草开荒的不合理土地利用活动。科尔沁沙地生态系统服务价值从1995年的1463．67亿元增加到2000年的1467．36亿元。净增加值为3．69亿元，增幅为0．25％；其增加值并非因耕地面积增大所产生．而是个别旗县的大面积沙荒地得到有效治理所致。     

毕节喀斯特石漠化治理生态农业模式构建

喀斯特石漠化已成为岩溶山区生态建设和社会经济可持续发展的重大障碍，受到各级政府、专家学者的高度重视和广泛关注。以贵州省毕节市老街村喀斯特石漠化土地利用为例，采用实地调查的方法获取研究数据，分析了研究区石漠化土地利用存在问题。在此基础上，遵循石漠化治理与产业化相结合原则、市场导向原则、替代产业培育原则、适地适种原则等喀斯特石漠化治理的一般原则；优化土地利用格局，设计由坡地保土耕作、桑草养殖、桑药种植、乡土廊道树篱、封山育林多种技术措施配套集成的综合治理方案，并通过与农村能源建设结合，构建桑草药粮种植＋蚕猪养殖＋沼气的生态农业发展模式，探索喀斯特石漠化区生态修复的有效途径。     

高科技污染问题及驱动力模型研究

高科技产生的污染包括产品生产、消费过程中及废弃时产生的污染。这些特点又加重了高科技的污染程度。高科技污染的各种特点，包括扩散快、产品回收难、污染类型多及隐蔽性强等。以江苏省高科技企业为例，研究企业隶属、资产组成以及经营能力和科技水平等企业性质指标与企业有毒有害原辅料消耗量的相关性，并做出高科技企业污染的驱动模型。根据所得研究结果，分析总结影响高科技企业有毒有害原辅料消耗量的主要因素，认为企业的性质间接作用于企业，最终形成了高科技污染。并据此提出治理高科技污染的建议，即完善污染治理法律体系、探索废旧产品回收途径、发展清洁生产技术、探索针对高科技企业的环境管理模式。     

视野受限时出口指示标志对行人疏散的作用研究

为完善视野受限时的行人疏散理论,探讨了出口指示标志在行人疏散中的作用和其他影响疏散的因素。在前人工作的基础上,进一步阐述了视野受限时的疏散理论模型,统计估算了行人的疏散时间;并利用计算机仿真对比研究了出口指示标志在行人疏散过程中的作用。结果表明,出口指示标志能够明显地影响行人疏散过程中的动力学特征,避免了无出口指示标志时的盲目和绕行现象,优化了行人疏散路径,提高了疏散效率。同时发现,在不同出口宽度下大的视野距离会对疏散起积极作用;初始行人密度较小时,行人数量的变化对疏散时间影响不大;初始行人密度较大时,疏散时间与行人数量间呈线性关系。     

固定化微生物吸附剂对Cr3+的吸附特性研究

从皮革铬鞣、复鞣污泥等处分离、纯化出4株菌株TP、XB、MY和TQ,采用海藻酸钠悬滴法并添加膨润土制成微生物固定化吸附剂,研究该吸附剂对低质量浓度Cr3+的吸附特性。结果表明,4种固定化颗粒对低质量浓度Cr3+有较好的吸附作用。实验室条件下,当吸附温度为30℃时,6 h后固定化吸附剂进入缓慢吸附和平衡吸附阶段。吸附等温曲线拟合研究表明,不同温度下吸附剂适合不同的等温模型。4种微生物吸附剂均与Lagrange拟二级动力学模型拟合最佳,且吸附量从高到低为TQ、TP、XB、MY。颗粒内扩散模型研究表明,20℃下XB和MY对Cr3+的吸附分为快速吸附和缓慢吸附阶段;30℃和40℃下固定化颗粒均呈现表面吸附—缓慢吸附—平衡吸附过程。热力学研究表明,吸附反应均属于自发进行的吸热过程,并且均是化学吸附。     

基于熵值法和物元可拓模型的核电站安全运行状态评价

我国核电事业发展迅速,核电安全是核电产业发展的重要基础.针对我国核电的发展和安全运行现状,建立了安全运行状况指标体系,通过构建物元可拓模型获得各指标在各评价等级上的关联度,将关联度与熵值法求得的指标权重合成得到加权综合关联度,继而确定核电站安全运行状况评价等级.在对核电站整体运行状况进行综合评价的同时,也能实现对安全运行状况各指标的分类评价.