Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land‐use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species’ habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species’ current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst‐case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land‐use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse.     

Use of monitoring data to support conservation management and policy decisions in Micronesia

Adaptive management implies a continuous knowledge‐based decision‐making process in conservation. Yet, the coupling of scientific monitoring and management frameworks remains rare in practice because formal and informal communication pathways are lacking. We examined 4 cases in Micronesia where conservation practitioners are using new knowledge in the form of monitoring data to advance marine conservation. These cases were drawn from projects in Micronesia Challenge jurisdictions that received funding for coupled monitoring‐to‐management frameworks and encompassed all segments of adaptive management. Monitoring in Helen Reef, Republic of Palau, was catalyzed by coral bleaching and revealed evidence of overfishing that led to increased enforcement and outreach. In Nimpal Channel, Yap, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), monitoring the recovery of marine food resources after customary restrictions were put in place led to new, more effective enforcement approaches. Monitoring in Laolao Bay, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, was catalyzed by observable sediment loads from poor land‐use practices and resulted in actions that reduced land‐based threats, particularly littering and illegal burning, and revealed additional threats from overfishing. Pohnpei (FSM) began monitoring after observed declines in grouper spawning aggregations. This data led to adjusting marine conservation area boundaries and implementing market‐based size class restrictions. Two themes emerged from these cases. First, in each case monitoring was conducted in a manner relevant to the social and ecological systems and integrated into the decision‐making process. Second, conservation practitioners and scientists in these cases integrated culturally appropriate stakeholder engagement throughout all phases of the adaptive management cycle. More broadly, our study suggests, when describing adaptive management, providing more details on how monitoring and management activities are linked at similar spatial scales and across similar time frames can enhance the application of knowledge.     

Potential for Electropositive Metal to Reduce the Interactions of Atlantic Sturgeon with Fishing Gear

Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrhynchus) populations have been declared either endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Effective measures to repel sturgeon from fishing gear would be beneficial to both fish and fishers because they could reduce both fishery‐associated mortality and the need for seasonal and area closures of specific fisheries. Some chondrostean fishes (e.g., sturgeons and paddlefishes) can detect weak electric field gradients (possibly as low as 5 Μv/cm) due to arrays of electroreceptors (ampullae of Lorenzini) on their snout and gill covers. Weak electric fields, such as those produced by electropositive metals (typically mixtures of the lanthanide elements), could therefore potentially be used as a deterrent. To test this idea, we recorded the behavioral responses of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon (31–43 cm fork length) to electropositive metal (primarily a mixture of the lanthanide elements neodymium and praseodymium) both in the presence and absence of food stimuli. Trials were conducted in an approximately 2.5 m diameter × 0.3 m deep tank, and fish behaviors were recorded with an overhead digital video camera. Video records were subsequently digitized (x, y coordinate system), the distance between the fish and the electropositive metal calculated, and data summarized by compiling frequency distributions with 5‐cm bins. Juvenile sturgeon showed clear avoidance of electropositive metal but only when food was present. On the basis of our results, we conclude that the electropositive metals, or other sources of weak electric fields, may eventually be used to reduce the interactions of Atlantic sturgeon with fishing gear, but further investigation is needed. El Potencial del Metal Electropositivo para Reducir las Interacciones del Esturión Atlántico con Instrumentos de Pesca Bouyoucos, Bushnell & Brill 13–003     

Effects of white‐nose syndrome on regional population patterns of 3 hibernating bat species

Hibernating bats have undergone severe recent declines across the eastern United States, but the cause of these regional‐scale declines has not been systematically evaluated. We assessed the influence of white‐nose syndrome (an emerging bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, formerly Geomyces destructans) on large‐scale, long‐term population patterns in the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), the northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis), and the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We modeled population trajectories for each species on the basis of an extensive data set of winter hibernacula counts of more than 1 million individual bats from a 4‐state region over 13 years and with data on locations of hibernacula and first detections of white‐nose syndrome at each hibernaculum. We used generalized additive mixed models to determine population change relative to expectations, that is, how population trajectories differed with a colony's infection status, how trajectories differed with distance from the point of introduction of white‐nose syndrome, and whether declines were concordant with first local observation of the disease. Population trajectories in all species met at least one of the 3 expectations, but none met all 3. Our results suggest, therefore, that white‐nose syndrome has affected regional populations differently than was previously understood and has not been the sole cause of declines. Specifically, our results suggest that in some areas and species, threats other than white‐nose syndrome are also contributing to population declines, declines linked to white‐nose syndrome have spread across large geographic areas with unexpected speed, and the disease or other threats led to declines in bat populations for years prior to disease detection. Effective conservation will require further research to mitigate impacts of white‐nose syndrome, renewed attention to other threats to bats, and improved surveillance efforts to ensure early detection of white‐nose syndrome.     

Metabolism of aceclofenac in cattle to vulture‐killing diclofenac

The nonsteroidal anti‐inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac is highly toxic to Gyps vultures, and its recent widespread use in South Asia caused catastrophic declines in at least 3 scavenging raptors. The manufacture of veterinary formulations of diclofenac has since been banned across the region with mixed success. However, at least 12 other NSAIDs are available for veterinary use in South Asia. Aceclofenac is one of these compounds, and it is known to metabolize into diclofenac in some mammal species. The metabolic pathway of aceclofenac in cattle, the primary food of vultures in South Asia, is unknown. We gave 6 cattle the recommended dose of aceclofenac (2 mg/kg), collected blood thereafter at intervals for up to 12 h, and used liquid chromatography with mass spectrometry in a pharmacokinetic analysis of aceclofenac and diclofenac in the plasma. Nearly all the aceclofenac administered to the cattle was very rapidly metabolized into diclofenac. At 2 h, half the aceclofenac had been converted into diclofenac, and at 12 h four‐fifths of the aceclofenac had been converted into diclofenac. Therefore, administering aceclofenac to livestock poses the same risk to vultures as administering diclofenac to livestock. This, coupled with the risk that aceclofenac may replace diclofenac in the veterinary market, points to the need for an immediate ban on all aceclofenac formulations that can be used to treat livestock. Without such a ban, the recovery of vultures across South Asia will not be successful.     

Convergence of stakeholders’ environmental threat perceptions following mass coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef

Managing human use of ecosystems in an era of rapid environmental change requires an understanding of diverse stakeholders’ behaviors and perceptions to enable effective prioritization of actions to mitigate multiple threats. Specifically, research examining how threat perceptions are shared or diverge among stakeholder groups and how these can evolve through time is increasingly important. We investigated environmental threat perceptions related to Australia's Great Barrier Reef and explored their associations before and after consecutive years of mass coral bleaching. We used data from surveys of commercial fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents (n = 5254) conducted in 2013 and 2017. Threats perceived as most serious differed substantially among groups before bleaching but were strongly aligned after bleaching. Climate change became the most frequently reported threat by all stakeholder groups following the coral bleaching events, and perceptions of fishing and poor water quality as threats also ranked high. Within each of the 3 stakeholder groups, fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents, the prioritization of these 3 threats tended to diverge in 2013, but convergence occurred after bleaching. These results indicate an emergence of areas of agreement both within and across stakeholder groups. Changes in perceptions were likely influenced by high-profile environmental-disturbance events and media representations of threats. Our results provide insights into the plasticity of environmental-threat perceptions and highlight how their convergence in response to major events may create new opportunities for strategic public engagement and increasing support for management.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

Effects of protected areas on survival of threatened gibbons in China

Establishing protected areas (PAs) is an essential strategy to reduce biodiversity loss. However, many PAs do not provide adequate protection due to poor funding, inadequate staffing and equipment, and ineffective management. As part of China's recent economic growth, the Chinese government has significantly increased investment in nature reserves over the past 20 years, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate whether PAs can protect threatened species effectively. We compiled data from published literature on populations of gibbons (Hylobatidae), a threatened taxon with cultural significance, that occurred in Chinese reserves after 1980. We evaluated the ability of these PAs to maintain gibbon habitat and populations by comparing forest cover and human disturbance between reserves and their surrounding areas and modeling the impact of reserve characteristics on gibbon population trends. We also assessed the perspective of reserve staff concerning PA management effectiveness through an online survey. Reserves effectively protected gibbon habitat by reducing forest loss and human disturbance; however, half the reserves lost their gibbon populations since being established. Gibbons were more likely to survive in reserves established more recently, at higher elevation, with less forest loss and lower human impact, and that have been relatively well studied. A larger initial population size in the 1980s was positively associated with gibbon persistence. Although staff of all reserves reported increased investment and improved management over the past 20–30 years, no relationship was found between management effectiveness and gibbon population trends. We suggest early and emphatic intervention is critical to stop population decline and prevent extinction.     

Feasibility of using high‐resolution satellite imagery to assess vertebrate wildlife populations

Although remote sensing has been used for >40 years to learn about Earth, use of very high‐resolution satellite imagery (VHR) (<1‐m resolution) has become more widespread over the past decade for studying wildlife. As image resolution increases, there is a need to understand the capabilities and limitations of this exciting new path in wildlife research. We reviewed studies that used VHR to examine remote populations of wildlife. We then determined characteristics of the landscape and the life history of species that made the studies amenable to use of satellite imagery and developed a list of criteria necessary for appropriate use of VHR in wildlife research. From 14 representative articles, we determined 3 primary criteria that must be met for a system and species to be appropriately studied with VHR: open landscape, target organism's color contrasts with the landscape, and target organism is of detectable size. Habitat association, temporal exclusivity, coloniality, landscape differentiation, and ground truthing increase the utility of VHR for wildlife research. There is an immediate need for VHR imagery in conservation research, particularly in remote areas of developing countries, where research can be difficult. For wildlife researchers interested in but unfamiliar with remote sensing resources and tools, understanding capabilities and current limitations of VHR imagery is critical to its use as a conservation and wildlife research tool.