青藏高原隆升对我国西南地区气候的影响——从季风角度研究

青藏高原隆升作为新生代最重要的地质事件,对亚洲乃至全球气候演化产生了深刻的影响。我国西南地区因紧邻青藏高原、地形地貌复杂,该区青藏高原隆升的气候效应至今仍存在许多需要探讨的问题。本文通过整理总结青藏高原隆升与亚洲季风各子系统形成与发展的相关性,从季风的角度分析了高原隆升对西南地区气候的影响。主要结论如下：（1）对西南地区气候起控制性作用的东亚季风、南亚季风以及高原季风的形成与青藏高原的隆升密切相关。虽然东亚夏季偏南风在约22 Ma就因海陆差异形成,但冬季风却是在约7.2 Ma因青藏高原隆升才出现;南亚夏季风（西南季风）约在12 Ma因喜马拉雅山脉及临近山脉形成而出现,而其冬季风形成时间及原因与东亚冬季风相似,同样离不开青藏高原的隆升;高原季风形成的直接因素就是高原隆升,其约在36 Ma青藏高原主体隆升至约1500 m时才开始形成。（2）亚洲季风各子系统对西南地区的气候演变有重要影响。尽管东亚冬季风不能直接影响西南地区,但青藏高原隆升增强了海陆差异及其热源作用,在一定程度上扩大了东亚夏季风的影响范围,并给西南地区带来水汽;南亚冬季风使得西南地区变得相对寒冷干燥,而南亚夏季风因青藏高原的隆升得到进一步加强,其通过形成南北向的水汽通道成为西南地区温暖湿润气候的主导者;高原冬、夏季风随着青藏高原隆升使得西南地区季节性干冷与湿润气候的差异更加显著。     

中国西南地区近千年湖泊水位变化

重建湖泊水位历史、掌握其演变规律和机制,对水资源管理、生态环境保护、旱涝灾害防治以及认识区域水文气候变化机制皆有重要意义.中国西南地区拥有大量湖泊,其水位变化及驱动机制广受关注.本文通过汇总历史文献记录并将其与邻近地区的其他湖泊水位重建进行比较,总结了过去一千年中国西南地区湖泊水位的变化.结果显示中国西南地区近千年的湖...     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Variation in spatial pattern of criteria air pollutants before and during initial rain of monsoon

Spatial patterns of various criteria air pollutants,like SO₂, NO₂, O₃, and TSP were studied atShahdara National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring stationin Delhi (India) in July 1999. The minimum pollutantconcentrations were observed during morning hours,whereas the highest concentrations were found during thelate night hours, which seem to be related with thevehicular emission. Pre-monsoon daily ambient airquality spatial pattern was compared with the spatialpattern during initial and subsequent rain shower ofmonsoon. These spatial patterns were found to beessentially the same before and during rain, however asignificant decrease in SO₂, NO₂ and TSPconcentrations (40-45%) was observed after initial andsubsequent rains of the monsoon, demonstrating theimportance of rainfall in the scavenging of thesecriteria air pollutants.     

中国代际降水区域变化差异分析

利用中国气象中心160站点的夏季降水实际观察资料,对中国半个世纪的降水变化按年代进行了系统分析,并对各地的代际降水量变化趋势进行了区域对比。结果发现,降水变化幅度大的区域主要集中在季风区,而非季风区的年代际降水相对稳定。在多数情况下,以四川为中心的区域的降水量变化与东北的北部一致,东南沿海与渤海湾沿岸区域一致。季风区降水量变化的区域差异,可能既受季风的年代际强弱变化的影响,又受微地形的影响：     

季风常绿阔叶林演替系列菌根资源及其与群落多样性的关系

随着森林生态系统的正向演替,植物物种多样性、群落结构、生产力以及土壤条件均会发生显著的变化,这些变化对菌根类型和多样性会产生不同程度的影响。为了探讨群落结构和功能的变化对菌根资源可能产生的影响,选择季风常绿阔叶林及其演替系列上的代表性森林生态系统为对象,对菌根化根系、菌根类型和菌根真菌孢子密度进行调查,并结合已有的群落信息和土壤养分状况,分析在森林演替过程中菌根资源的变化情况和可能的影响因素。结果表明:季风常绿阔叶林各演替阶段的森林生态系统中菌根化比例接近70%,但不同演替阶段森林的优势菌根类型存在明显的差异。处于演替初期的马尾松(Pinus massoniana)林以丛枝菌根为主,占菌根总数的78%;演替中期的针阔叶混交林中的外生菌根占有绝对优势,占75%,是丛枝菌根的3倍;演替顶级的季风常绿阔叶林中的外生菌根和丛枝菌根的比例相当。马尾松林的菌根真菌孢子密度最高,每20 g风干土壤中的孢子数量高达2 925个,是针阔叶混交林的2.5倍,季风常绿阔叶林的2倍。演替系列上的森林生态系统的菌根类型的差异与植物物种多样性和群落结构,尤其是林下的灌木、草本层密度存在一定的相关性,同时也受土壤养分状况的影响。马尾松林具有较丰富的草本植物和较高的草本层密度,并且该森林的土壤相对贫瘠,这些条件都有利于丛枝菌根真菌侵染草本植物的根系形成丛枝菌根并产生大量孢子。针阔叶混交林中外生菌根的优势主要受该森林中外生菌根植物在群落组成上的绝对优势影响。季风常绿阔叶林的物种丰富,群落结构复杂,因此该森林呈现了两种类型菌根优势相当的现象。该文的结果表明,随着季风常绿阔叶林演替的进行,菌根资源在类型上会出现较大的分异,而这种变化受植物物种数量、群落结构的影响,与土壤养分状况存在一定的关系,并且不同演替阶段森林生态系统影响菌根组成的因素存在差异。     

大气环流模式CAM4对亚洲气候的高分辨率模拟

中小尺度地形不仅在区域尺度上影响降水和环流形势分布,还会影响季风、西风急流等大尺度的天气系统。新的全球模式分辨率得到明显提高,本研究通过对比分析CAM4高分辨率配置下的模拟结果与高分辨率APHRO降水和ERA-Interim再分析资料,评估高分辨率CAM4对亚洲地区气候系统的模拟性能。结果表明,该模式不仅对亚洲季风-干旱气候系统的大尺度分布特征有良好的模拟能力,还能很好地模拟出季风区和内陆干旱半干旱区年均和季节平均降水的高、低值中心以及水平风场、地表温度和海平面气压的区域差异性特征,尤其是山脉地形附近的降水极值和风场变化。此外,CAM4与气象资料间在不同空间尺度上的空间相关性均很好,其中地表温度的相关系数在0.9以上,降水在亚洲地区超过0.7。     

石笋灰度和同位素对末次冰期气候事件的响应

对石笋多指标的研究有利于全面理解季风气候事件的变化特征和机制。以湖北永兴洞YX55石笋为研究对象,通过高精度U/Th定年和多指标分析重建了65～35 ka B.P.石笋灰度和稳定同位素的变化序列。在65～40 ka B.P.时段,石笋灰度、δ13C与δ18O都呈现出数个千年至亚千年尺度的变化,但δ13C变化幅度比δ18O小得多。这说明灰度和δ13C这类代表局域气候的指标,都响应于δ18O指示的Heinrich(H)事件和Dansgaard-Oeschger(DO)旋回,但响应的程度各不相同。H4期间,石笋δ13C和灰度呈现不一致变化:δ13C不像在其他H事件一样小幅振荡,而是大幅正偏(相当于其他H事件2～3倍);灰度则显示出和DO旋回一致的特征。这种δ13C/灰度与δ18O异常响应关系可能的机制是:H4期间季风强度急剧减弱,使得洞穴上覆土壤覆盖率大幅降低,从而削弱或阻止了土壤—岩溶系统的过滤能力,使石笋中杂质含量异常增加。     

树轮氢同位素气候学:现状与方向

树木年轮硝化纤维素的氢同位素组成被广泛地用于重建过去气候变化。文章介绍了树轮氢同位素气候学在技术、理论以及应用于重建气候变化等方面的进展以及存在的问题,着重阐述了用树木年轮硝化纤维素氢同位素组成来研究东亚季风的进展和今后需要解决的问题。     

Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability in the NCAR climate system model

The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent as simulated in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled climate system model (CSM) in its control reference experiment, are presented in this paper. The CSM reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters reasonably well in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. However, while the seasonality in rainfall over the region is simulated well, the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is underestimated to only about 60% of the observed rainfall. The centers of maxima in simulated monsoon rainfall are slightly displaced southward as compared to the climatological patterns. The cross-equatorial flow in simulated surface wind patterns during summer is also stronger than observed with an easterly bias. The transient experiment with a 1% per year compound increase in CO₂ with CSM suggests an annual mean area-averaged surface warming of about 1.73 °C over the region at the time of CO₂ doubling. This warming is more pronounced in winter than during the monsoon season. A net increase in area-averaged monsoon rainfall of about 1.4 mm day^–1, largely due to increased moisture convergence and associated convective activity over the land, is obtained. The enhanced intraseasonal variability in the monsoon rainfall in a warmer atmosphere is confined to the early part of the monsoon season which suggests the possibility of the date of onset of summer monsoon over India becoming more variable in future. The enhanced interannual and intraseasonal variability in the summer monsoon activity over India could also contribute to more intense rainfall spells over the land regions of the Indian subcontinent, thus increasing the probability of extreme rainfall events in a warmer atmosphere. Electronic Publication