某大型储罐复合地基沉降计算分析

从某大型储罐复合地基沉降机理分析入手,合理选择沉降计算公式,对建造在该类复合地基上的大型储罐沉降量作计算,并经实测沉降资料对比后,验证该类储罐沉降计算方法的适用性,为今后类同工程地质条件下,储罐基础的优化设计积累经验.图1,表1,参3.     

短柄五加濒危趋势和致濒因素的初步分析

研究了短柄五加种群致濒的因素和机制 .1)通过环境筛分析 ,认为短柄五加种群在 5～ 8a和 11～ 12a两个年龄阶段受到强烈的环境筛过滤作用 ,这两个阶段可能是濒危的关键阶段 .2 )通过对短柄五加种群生物量增长过程中关键因子的分析 ,确定了影响种群生物量的主导生境因子 ,主要是群落类型、群落郁闭度和坡度、坡向等 .影响种群增长的主导生境因子的脆弱性 ,增大了短柄五加种群濒危的趋势 .3)通过对短柄五加种子生态及生殖生态的初步分析 ,认为种群实生苗更新失败是短柄五加种群濒危的重要因素 .4)放牧、采挖和对次生落叶阔叶林的砍伐等人类活动 ,加快了短柄五加种群濒危的速度 .图 1表 3参 11     

Learning in participatory environmental governance – its antecedents and effects. Findings from a case survey meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

Theory on participatory and collaborative governance maintains that learning is essential to achieve good environmental outcomes. Empirical research has mostly produced individual case studies, and reliable evidence on both antecedents and environmental outcomes of learning remains sparse. Given conceptual ambiguities in the literature, we define governance-related learning in a threefold way: learning as deliberation; as knowledge- and capacity-building; and as informing environmental outputs. We develop nine propositions that explain learning through factors characterizing governance process and context, and three propositions explaining environmental outcomes of learning. We test these propositions drawing on the ‘SCAPE’ database of 307 published case studies of environmental decision-making, using multiple regression models. Results show that learning in all three modes is explained to some extent by a combination of process- and context-related factors. Most factors matter for learning, but with stark differences across the three modes of learning, thus demonstrating the relevance of this differentiated approach. Learning modes build on one another: Deliberation is seen to explain both capacity building and informed outputs, while informed outputs are also explained by capacity building. Contrary to our expectations, none of the learning variables was found to significantly affect environmental outcomes when considered alongside the process- and context-related variables.     

房地产建设项目生态宜居性的模糊综合评价

以现代住区人居生态环境的要求和前人研究为基础,立足于以人为本和便于实际评估工作的开展,综合考虑人居生态环境健康、舒适的特点,在类比众多评价方法和参考国内外指标体系的基础上,运用模糊综合评价对某一大型房地产项目的生态宜居性进行初步分析,以期完善、充实中国房地产项目的生态宜居性评价体系和方法,为该领域的进一步研究提供基础。     

多时间尺度HSPF模型参数不确定性研究

模型参数的不确定性是水文模型应用研究领域的重点与难点.本研究以密云水库东北部的潮河流域为例,构建了潮河流域HSPF水文模型,并采用1998~2010年逐月地表径流量数据对模型参数进行校准与验证,并结合GLUE算法分析了模型参数的敏感性和不确定性.结果表明:(1)经过参数调整,HSPF模型径流模拟取得了较好的效果,率定期和验证期的纳什系数分别为0.84和0.55;(2)可将影响HSPF模型的参数分为3类,即全局敏感性参数(LZSN、INFILT、IRC和AGWRC)、局部敏感性参数(UZSN)和不敏感参数(DEEPFR、BASETP、AGWEPT、INTFW和CEPSC);(3)不同敏感性参数间存在复杂的相关关系,参数组合(LZSN与INFILT)、(INFILT与UZSN)和(UZSN与AGWRC)间均呈极显著负相关关系;(LZSN与UZSN)和(UZSN与AGWRC)呈极显著正相关;(4)HSPF模型参数存在大量复杂的"异参同效"现象,证实影响模拟结果优劣的是参数组合而非某一参数值;(5)模型不确定性发现,模型预测的不确定性范围与降雨量密切相关,即降雨量越大,模型预报的不确定性就越大,反之亦然;(6)不同时间尺度下HSPF模型的模拟效果总体较好,但是也存在一定差异性,年尺度、季节尺度和月尺度下不确定性范围分别包含了81.80%、78.70%和80.56%的观测值,即年尺度效果略优于月尺度和季节尺度;该研究结果可为HSPF模型在相似区域应用与参数本土化提供科学参考和借鉴.     

Long-Term Ecosystem Dynamics in the Serengeti: Lessons for Conservation

Abstract:  Data from long-term ecological studies further understanding of ecosystem dynamics and can guide evidence-based management. In a quasi-natural experiment we examined long-term monitoring data on different components of the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem to trace the effects of disturbances and thus to elucidate cause-and-effect connections between them. The long-term data illustrated the role of food limitation in population regulation in mammals, particularly in migratory wildebeest and nonmigratory buffalo. Predation limited populations of smaller resident ungulates and small carnivores. Abiotic events, such as droughts and floods, created disturbances that affected survivorship of ungulates and birds. Such disturbances showed feedbacks between biotic and abiotic realms. Interactions between elephants and their food allowed savanna and grassland communities to co-occur. With increased woodland vegetation, predators' capture of prey increased. Anthropogenic disturbances had direct (hunting) and indirect (transfer of disease to wildlife) effects. Slow and rapid changes and multiple ecosystem states became apparent only over several decades and involved events at different spatial scales. Conservation efforts should accommodate both infrequent and unpredictable events and long-term trends. Management should plan on the time scale of those events and should not aim to maintain the status quo. Systems can be self-regulating through food availability and predator-prey interactions; thus, culling may not be required. Ecosystems can occur in multiple states; thus, there may be no a priori need to maintain one natural state. Finally, conservation efforts outside protected areas must distinguish between natural change and direct human-induced change. Protected areas can act as ecological baselines in which human-induced change is kept to a minimum     

Designing Cost-Effective Payments for Conservation Measures to Generate Spatiotemporal Habitat Heterogeneity

Abstract:  Many endangered species depend on certain types of agricultural or other forms of human land use. To conserve such species, schemes are set up in which land users receive payments for voluntarily managing their land in a biodiversity-enhancing manner. We developed a model-based framework for designing cost-effective payment schemes that generate spatiotemporal habitat heterogeneity to maximize the survival of multiple species under budget constraints. The framework integrates ecological and economic knowledge and consists of the derivation of an ecological benefit function and a budget function that are then combined to determine the cost-effective degree of spatiotemporal habitat heterogeneity. The ecological benefit function considers the timing of conservation measures, the induced habitat dynamics, and different degrees of substitutability among species. The budget function considers that the conservation agency may lack information about land users' individual conservation costs and personal attitudes and that land users can choose among different conservation measures. We applied the framework to a case study of grassland management, where the survival of three endangered species protected by the EU Habitats Directive depends on different types of land use. The lack of information available to the agency and the choice options of land users reduced the amount of conservation that can be financed with a given budget. Neglecting such findings may lead to an overestimation of the benefits of conservation programs.     

On ranked set sampling for multiple characteristics

We consider the selection of samples in ranked set sampling when several attributes of each sample are of interest. We describe approaches that have appeared previously in the literature and present a novel method that seeks to achieve samples that are nearly balanced with respect to the ranks of all attributes. This method is shown to result in very little loss of precision compared to problems in which only a single sample attribute is of interest.     

环境样品稀释方法的探讨

环境样品分析中，特别是污染源样品分析经常遇到样品浓度高于方法的检出范围。为此，根据不同分析项目的分析方法和质量控制的要求，研究和探讨了样品稀释可采用原始样品、中间样品和分析后样品进行稀释。稀释倍数可根据日常积累的基础资料推算、肉眼观察和简单试验的方法确定。探讨了稀释误差的来源及降低稀释误差的方法。     

Fuzzy Logic Model to Estimate Seasonal Pseudo Steady State Chlorophyll-A Concentrations in Reservoirs

A fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate pseudo steady state chlorophyll-a concentrations in a very large and deep dam reservoir, namely Keban Dam Reservoir, which is also highly spatial and temporal variable. The estimation power of the developed fuzzy logic model was tested by comparing its performance with that from the classical multiple regression model. The data include chlorophyll-a concentrations in Keban lake as a response variable, as well as several water quality variables such as PO₄ phosphorus, NO₃ nitrogen, alkalinity, suspended solids concentration, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen concentration and Secchi depth as independent environmental variables. Because of the complex nature of the studied water body, as well as non-significant functional relationships among the water quality variables to the chlorophyll-a concentration, an initial analysis is conducted to select the most important variables that can be used in estimating the chlorophyll-a concentrations within the studied water body. Following the outcomes from this initial analysis, the fuzzy logic model is developed to estimate the chlorophyll-a concentrations and the advantages of this new model is demonstrated in model fitting over the traditional multiple regression method.