基于CALPUFF模型的漳州市大气环境容量研究

研究表明：CALPUFF模式是运用于广域的大气扩散模型,在区域范围较大的复杂地形条件下的应用具有突出的优势.利用CALPUFF大气扩散模型模拟漳州市2009年气象场和污染物浓度场,采用监测值对模拟结果进行验证表明模型的适用性;基于现状污染源,建立大气污染物传递系数矩阵,结合线性优化法测算了不同环境空气质量标准下漳州市大气环境容量.     

基于增强回归树的城市PM2.5日均值变化分析:以常州为例

利用2014年12月至2015年11月常州市区6个国控监测站空气污染物浓度逐时数据,分析了PM_(2.5)浓度季节变化特征,采用增强回归树模拟分析了PM10、4种气态污染物和7个气象因子对ρ(PM_(2.5))日变化的贡献.结果表明,常州市区PM_(2.5)污染季节差异明显,冬季污染严重且持续时间长,夏季污染较轻.四季ρ(PM_(2.5))空间分布特征存在一定差异,但各季内不同监测站差异较小.增强回归树对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值进行模拟和验证得到,训练数据的相关性为0.981,交叉验证的相关性为0.957.此外,模拟值与实测值的标准化平均偏差为1.80%,标准化平均误差为10.41%,可见模型拟合效果较好.PM10、气态污染物、气象因子和区域输送及扩散这4种影响类型对全年ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的贡献率分别为23.4%、28%、36.2%和12.6%,表明在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的影响上,气象因子二次形成一次源区域输送及扩散.在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异贡献率大于5%的因子中,ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值与PM10、相对湿度、CO和O3正相关,与温度、SO2和混合层高度负相关,与大气压和NO2关系较复杂.区域输送及扩散方面,东南风向、偏西风向和偏北风向等上风向周边城市的污染物输送对常州市区PM_(2.5)污染存在较大的负面影响.     

基于距离相关系数和支持向量机回归的PM2.5浓度滚动统计预报方案

针对目前空气质量统计预报方法存在的主要缺陷,本文提出了距离相关系数和支持向量机回归相结合的统计预报方案DC-SVR.利用淮安市2013年1—12月PM_(2.5)观测资料和常规气象观测资料,首先在选入预报当日气象要素的基础上,增加选取前期污染物和气象要素作为预报因子,再采用距离相关系数分季节从预报因子中筛选出重要预报因子,最后采用支持向量机回归对PM_(2.5)浓度值进行逐日滚动统计预报.研究发现,淮安地区气温和气压对PM_(2.5)的距离相关性要高于其他气象要素,夏秋季PM_(2.5)与气象要素的距离相关性较春冬季好.基于距离相关系数和支持向量机回归建立DC-SVR模型,PM_(2.5)的试预报值和实测值的全年相关系数高达0.76,平均偏差仅为1.13μg·m~(-3),平均绝对误差为23.47μg·m~(-3).通过与支持向量机回归、人工神经网络的统计预报效果对比,DC-SVR模型有效降低预报因子维数且能自适应选取最佳参数,预报精度显著优于其他3种统计预报方案,可为业务化预报提供参考.     

Humic substances

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Freshwater bodies which chemistry is dominated by dissolved humic substances (HS) seem to be the major type on Earth, due to huge non-calcareous geological formations in the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics. Based on the paradigm of the inertness of being organic, direct interactions of dissolved HS with freshwater organisms are mostly neglected. However, dissolved organic carbon, the majority of which being HS, are natural environmental chemicals and should therefore directly interact with organisms. Major results that widened our perspective on humic substance ecology come from experiments with the compost nematode, Caenorhabditis elegans, which behaved contradictorily to textbook knowledge and provoked an in-depth re-consideration of some paradigms. APPROACH: To overcome old paradigms on HS and their potential interactions with organisms, we reviewed recent international literature, as well as 'grey' literature. We also include results from own ongoing studies. RESULTS: This review focuses on direct interactions of dissolved HS with freshwater organisms and disregards indirect effects, such as under-water light quenching. Instead we show with some macrophyte and algal species that HS adversely interfere with photosynthesis and growth, whereby closely related algal species show different response patterns. In addition to this, HS suppress cyanobacteria more than eukaryotic algae. Quinones in the HS appear to be the effective structure. Furthermore, HS can modulate the offspring numbers in the nematode C. elegans and cause feminization of fish and amphibians--they possess hormone-like properties. The ecological consequences of this potential remain obscure at present. HS also have the potential to act as chemical attractants as shown with C. elegans and exert a mild chemical stress upon aquatic organisms in many ways: induction of molecular chaperons (stress proteins), induction and modulation of biotransformation and anti-oxidant enzymes. Furthermore, they produce an oxidative stress with lipidperoxidation as one clear symptom or even stress defense strategy. Stronger chemical stresses by HS may even lead to teratogenic effects as shown with fish embryos; all physiological responses to HS-mediated stress require energy, which were compensated on the expense of yolk as shown with zebra fish embryos. One Finnish field survey supports the view of a strong chemical stress, as the weight yield in fish species decreases with increasing HS content in the lakes. DISCUSSION: HS exert a variety of stress symptoms in aquatic and compost organisms. According to current paradigms of ecotoxicology, these symptoms have to be considered adverse, because their compensation consumes energy which is deducted from the main metabolism. However, the nematode C. elegans looks actively for such stressful environments, and this behavior is only understandable in the light of new paradigms of aging mechanisms, particularly the Green Theory of Aging. In this respect, we discuss the mild HS-mediated stress to aquatic and compost organisms. New empirical findings with HS themselves and HS building blocks appear to be consistent with this emerging paradigm and show that the individual lifespan may be expanded. At present the ecological consequences of these findings remain obscure. However, a multiple-stress resistance may be acquired which improves the individual fitness in a fluctuating environment. CONCLUSIONS: It appears that dissolved HS have to be considered abiotic ecological driving forces, somewhat less obvious than temperature, nutrients, or light. PERSPECTIVES: The understanding of the ecological control by dissolved humic substances is still fragmentary and needs to be studied in more details.     

The application of generalized linear mixed models to multi-level sampling for insect population monitoring

Iwao's quadratic regression or Taylor's Power Law (TPL) are commonly used to model the variance as a function of the mean for sample counts of insect populations which exhibit spatial aggregation. The modeled variance and distribution of the mean are typically used in pest management programs to decide if the population is above the action threshold in any management unit (MU) (e.g., orchard, forest compartment). For nested or multi-level sampling the usual two-stage modeling procedure first obtains the sample variance for each MU and sampling level using ANOVA and then fits a regression of variance on the mean for each level using either Iwao or TPL variance models. Here this approach is compared to the single-stage procedure of fitting a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) directly to the count data with both approaches demonstrated using 2-level sampling. GLMMs and additive GLMMs (AGLMMs) with conditional Poisson variance function as well as the extension to the negative binomial are described. Generalization to more than two sampling levels is outlined. Formulae for calculating optimal relative sample sizes (ORSS) and the operating characteristic curve for the control decision are given for each model. The ORSS are independent of the mean in the case of the AGLMMs. The application described is estimation of the variance of the mean number of leaves per shoot occupied by immature stages of a defoliator of eucalypts, the Tasmanian Eucalyptus leaf beetle, based on a sample of trees within plots from each forest compartment. Historical population monitoring data were fitted using the above approaches.     

‘A powerful alternative to Williams’ test with application to toxicological dose-response relationships of normally distributed data

The comparison of increasing doses of a treatment to a negative control is frequently part of toxicological studies. For normally distributed data Williams (1971, 1972) introduced a maximum likelihood test under total order restriction. But until now there seems to have been no solution for the arbitrary unbalanced case. According to the idea proposed by Robertson et al. (1988) we will apply in this article the basic concept of Williams on the class of multiple contrast tests for the general unbalanced parametric set-up. Simulation results for size and power and two examples for estimating the minimal toxic dose (MTD) are given.     

A measurement of community disaster resilience in Korea

Building a community that is resilient to disasters has become one of the main goals of disaster management. Communities that are more disaster resilient often experience less impact from the disaster and reduced recovery periods afterwards. This study develops a methodology for constructing a set of indicators measuring Community Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) in terms of human, social, economic, environmental, and institutional factors. In this study, the degree of community resilience to natural disasters was measured for 229 local municipalities in Korea, followed by an examination of the relationship between the aggregated CDRI and disaster losses, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. Identifying the extent of community resilience to natural disasters would provide emergency managers and decision-makers with strategic directions for improving local communities' resilience to natural disasters while reducing the negative impacts of disasters.     

Income and distance-decay effects on willingness to pay estimated by the contingent valuation method

This study suggests a methodology for enhancing accuracy in evaluating amenity by the contingent valuation method when household's willingness to pay (WTP) is dependent to its income and the distance between a respondent's residence and the location of a target facility. Using a linear city model, this study demonstrates the influences of income and distance-decay effects on WTP. Simulations are performed to check the validity of the model, as well as to predict consequences when income and distance-decay effects are not properly treated. Finally, the suggested methodology is applied to two real cases. The estimation results from a structural model show that the calculated total benefit varies largely when income and distance-decay effects exist and are ignored. Also, an ad hoc model generates significantly different estimates from the utility difference model this study adopted. The difference in estimates suggests that the total benefit has to be estimated by a structural model.     

基于支持向量回归机的南黄海浒苔分布面积预测模型

绿潮作为一种新型的海洋灾害,已经引起了各个国家的重视.依据2012年南黄海海域浒苔遥感监测分布面积数据,选取了温度、天气状况、风向、风力、浪高5种影响浒苔扩散的气候因子,建立了基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型,并与经典的最近邻点插值模型、线性插值模型、3次样条函数插值模型和分段3次Hermite插值模型进行了回归效果的对比.分析结果表明,基于SVR的浒苔分布面积预测模型能够为浒苔遥感数据的插补提供一种方法,且回归效果优于传统的回归方法,为浒苔的防治提供辅助决策信息.     

城市污泥模拟堆肥过程中高温菌群的筛选、鉴定及降解效果

在城市污泥模拟堆肥过程的高温期通过平板培养法筛选出一组强化菌群.该组菌群不但可以分解污泥有机质,还可以分解淀粉、蛋白质、油脂、纤维素等大分子有机物.经鉴定,筛选出的菌种分别为地衣芽孢杆菌(B.licheniformis)、短小芽孢杆菌(B.pumilus)、高温放线菌(Thermoactinomyces)、凝结芽孢杆菌(B.coagulans)、枯草芽孢杆菌(B.subtilis);将菌株两两接种到平板,发现各菌株间可以共存.将上述菌种混合后添加到堆肥样品中,其有机质去除率、脱氢酶增加率、比耗氧速率SOUR增加率均高出不加菌样品40%以上,表明该组菌群具有使堆肥腐熟进程加快的应用潜力.