MULTICRITERIA EVALUATION IN A POLICY ANALYSIS OF A RHINE ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: As part of a major project to provide the Rhine delta protection from North Sea floods, the Dutch installed sluices at Haringvliet in the late 1960s and converted the Haringvliet-Hollandsch Diep-Biesbosch (HHB) estuary into a tidally-damped, fresh-water system. Two decades later, the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat commissioned a study of alternative policies for managing the sluices and removing contaminated bottom sediments, including policies which would at least partially restore estuarine conditions to the HHB. This paper describes the public policy analysis comprising that study, focusing on the role played by formal mullicriteria evaluation (MCE), including the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through the tasks of value-tree structuring, impact measurement, and criterion prioritization, the MCE influenced the entire structure of the analysis, became an integral part of it, and, despite initial skepticism among the participants about the utility of multicriteria analysis, was subsequently accepted and viewed favorably by the majority of them.     

Repeat maternal serum testing in multiple marker down's syndrome screening programmes

The effect of repeat testing in maternal serum multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome was estimated using samples stored in an antenatal serum bank. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) levels were determined in 142 pairs of routinely collected samples which had already been tested for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). For each marker, about two-thirds of the pairs of values were within 20 per cent of each other and most were within 40 per cent. A multivariate Gaussian model was used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates for different repeat testing policies. A policy of repeat testing those with a high risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy given age and marker levels would reduce the false-positive rate but there would also be a reduction in the detection rate. For example, using all three markers and a 1 in 250 cut-off risk, the estimated false-positive rate would fall from 5·3 to 3·8 per cent but the detection rate would decrease from 58 to 55 per cent. A policy of repeating those with either high or borderline risks would produce a modest improvement in screening efficiency. Repeating the 11 per cent with a risk exceeding 1 in 500 yields an estimated false-positive rate of 5·0 per cent and a detection rate of 60 per cent. A policy of selective repeat testing is not recommended as it would not substantially improve screening efficiency. Nonetheless, if a repeat test has been performed, the parameters given in this paper will enable an unbiased estimate of the Down's syndrome risk to be calculated for individual women.     

长江三角洲土地资源可持续利用研究

在定性分析长江三角洲土地资源现状特征和可持续利用目标基础上,重点对区域土地资源可持续利用进行定量评价:选择36个因素作为参评因子,建立评价指标体系;选用模糊隶属函数和线性加权函数进行综合测算,评判出区域土地资源可持续利用综合水平;引进“障碍度”概念进行定量的障碍诊断,并针对主要障碍因素提出可持续利用具体对策。     

生态型组合人工湿地污水处理工艺

建立了由生物调节池、好氧降解与微生物培养池、潜流湿地和表流湿地组成的生态型污水处理组合工艺系统,用以处理生活污水和试验室废水。系统连续运行2年的处理效果持续稳定,出水水质达到国家(GB 18918-2002)1级排放标准。该工艺的建设成本和运行成本低,用地面积小于2 m2/t,建设成本为300~500元/t,运行耗电量小于0.1元/t,管理维护等费用约为0.1元/t,运行合计费用小于0.2元/t,该生态型组合人工湿地所具有的环境效益、经济效益及社会效益,对于处理水量不大、水质变化不太大,管理水平不太高的广大中小城镇、居民小区尤其适用。     

Geochemistry of soil around a fluoride contaminated area in Nayagarh District,Orissa, India: Factor analytical appraisal

Fluoride contamination in soil was studied in the vicinity of a hot spring in Nayagarh district of Orissa. Both bulk soil from 0 to 30 cm depth and profile soils from 0 to 90 cm depth were analyzed for total fluoride (F_t) and 0.01 M CaCl₂ extractable fluoride (F_ca), major elements, pH, EC and Organic Carbon (OC). High concentrations of both F_t and F_ca were observed in the area surrounding the hot spring and the village of Singhpur. Principal factor analysis (PFA) on the parameters of the bulk soils suggests that two major chemical processes due to three factors, control the soil geochemistry of the area. Factor-1 contributes 37.11% of the total variance and is strongly loaded with Al, Si, Fe, F_tand F_ca, and explains the fluoride enrichment of the soil, whereas the second and the third factors contribute 16.6 and 12.2%, respectively and explain the controlling process of carbonate precipitation and soil alkalinity. Multiple regression analysis of the scores of the factors was performed to derive a fluoride contamination index in soil. The magnitude of the factor effect on the contamination index follows the order of Factor-1 > Factor-2 > Factor-3. The spatial distribution of the contamination index is used to classify the area into highly contaminated, moderately contaminated and uncontaminated zones.     

The Role of Hybrid Vigor in the Replacement of Pecos Pupfish by Its Hybrids with Sheepshead Minnow

Abstract:  Many species are jeopardized by hybridization and genetic introgression with closely related species. Unfortunately, the mechanisms that promote or retard gene flow between divergent populations are little studied and poorly understood. Like many imperiled fish species, the Pecos pupfish ( Cyprinodon pecosensis ) is threatened with replacement by its hybrids with a close congener. We examined swimming performance and growth rate of hybrid pupfish to determine the role of hybrid vigor in the genetic homogenization of C. pecosensis by its hybrids with sheepshead minnow ( C. variegatus ). The F1 hybrids, backcross hybrids, and purebred C. variegatus displayed greater swimming endurance than purebred C. pecosensis . In addition, F1 hybrids and C. variegatus grew more rapidly than C. pecosensis . The ecological superiority of hybrids probably promoted their rapid spread through and beyond the historic range of C. pecosensis . These results indicate that eradication of hybrids and restoration of C. pecosensis to its native range is unlikely. Extinction of unique species via genetic homogenization can result from human activities that increase gene flow between historically fragmented populations; conservation managers must weigh the potential for such a catastrophe against the presumed benefits of increased interpopulation gene flow. This example illustrates how, after hybridization has occurred, conflict may arise between formerly complementary conservation goals.     

中国岩溶生态地质研究

因自然地理条件特殊，中国南方岩溶区形成组构相对脆弱的岩溶多重介质环境。加上不适当的认为干扰，岩溶多重介质环境遭受严重破坏，导致各类物种急剧减少或消失。文章主要对岩溶多重介质环境的脆弱性、水资源合理开发利用、土壤质量、生态承载力、化学元素迁移演变规律和人类参变作用等方面进行了讨论；针对上述问题提出了解决方案，即划分岩溶多重介质环境结构和功能区，并结合数学物理模型和实验，建立岩溶生态地质研究系统理论框架和实用技术方法库，使岩溶生态地质研究走上科学、合理的轨道。     

A new method for spatially moving correlation analysis in geomedicine

A method of correlation analysis within a spatially moving window was applied to two sets of epidemiological/geochemical data in Norway, (1) mortality/disability rates of multiple sclerosis (MS) versus atmospheric fallout of Mg and concentrations of Se in overbank sediment, and (2) incidence rates of malignant melanoma of the skin (MM) versus concentrations of Ca and K in overbank sediment. It appears that n = 17 observation sites within the moving window is a practical compromise between noise in the data at small values of n and a spatial resolution good enough to detect trends in the distribution patterns of the correlation coefficient. For MS versus Mg, MS versus Se and MM versus Ca the correlation coefficients are generally negative and depict systematic distribution patterns with anomalous clusters of sites with good correlation. For MS versus Se the correlation coefficients also form an additional cluster of positive coefficients. Tests with permutated data show that more than 70% of the negative correlation coefficients for MS versus Mg and for MM versus Ca are both significantly different from zero at p<0.05, while less than 15% of those for MS versus Se are significant at the same level. For MM versus K the correlation coefficients are randomly distributed and not significantly different from zero. The described correlations may be effects of confounders and do not per se indicate any causal relationships. However, further research based on these results may well lead to the identification of possible aetiological factors.     

霍林河中游径流量序列的多时间尺度特征及其效应分析

霍林河是松嫩平原西部地区科尔沁、向海和查干湖湿地的重要补给水源。通过对其中游白云胡硕水文测站46a的年径流量序列的多时间尺度分析,探讨霍林河径流演变的近似周期性,识别霍林河径流变化对其下游洪泛湿地水源补给的规律,以及这种规律控制下的洪泛湿地环境演变。小波分析表明,霍林河白云胡硕水文站年径流序列主要存在3个尺度的周期变化,不同时间尺度下周期信号的强弱在时频域中的分布具有较强的局部特征,以大于30a尺度的年代际周期变化起主导作用,该尺度下,霍林河径流演变呈现出丰、枯、丰的交替振荡,下游洪泛湿地景观演变相应表现出阶段性特征,1990年代以前尤为突出。能量相对较弱的中、小时间尺度径流量周期性变化,与强烈的人类干扰活动相比,对下游洪泛湿地环境演变的作用效果不明显,突出表现在1990年代以后。     

硅藻指数在嫩江支流甘河的适用性评估

为了筛选出适用于甘河水生态评价的硅藻指数,合理评价甘河水生态健康状况,2018年8月在嫩江支流甘河调查了19个点位的着生硅藻群落结构和水环境特征.应用21种硅藻指数对甘河水生态健康状况进行评价,采用箱体图法分析了所选硅藻指数的适用性,使用Spearman相关分析研究了硅藻指数与环境因子的相关性,最后应用多元线性回归方法分析了不同因素对硅藻指数在甘河评价正确率的影响.结果表明:①所选硅藻指数中,IBD（biological diatom index,硅藻生物指数）、EPI-D（diatom eutrophication pollution index,富营养污染硅藻指数）和IPS（specific pollution sensitivity index,特定污染敏感指数）的评价结果区分度最好,最适用于甘河水生态健康状况评价.②甘河丰水期水生态健康状况总体较好,约70%的点位水生态健康状况为健康、较好和一般,约30%的点位水生态健康状况为较差和极差,极差的点位全部位于甘河下游区域.③硅藻指数与COD_Cr的相关性对硅藻指数评价正确率有显著影响（P < 0.01）,硅藻指数与COD_Cr相关性越强,评价的正确率越高;物种覆盖度对硅藻指数评价的正确率也有影响,但不显著,各点位最小物种覆盖度高于65%时,物种覆盖度对藻指数评价的正确率影响较为明显.研究表明,硅藻指数可以有效地评价水生态健康状况,但硅藻指数与环境因子之间的相关性等因素会影响评价的正确率,因此选择合适的硅藻指数进行研究区域的水生态健康状况评价尤为重要.