4种重要因素对柴油机颗粒物排放因子的量化影响研究

在发动机台架测试基础上,按照发动机排放阶段、油品种类、后处理装置和运行工况4种因素的不同,进行了24组测试,研究了颗粒物排放因子.同时,应用单因素敏感性分析,探究了发动机排放阶段和油品种类对颗粒物排放因子的影响;并运用多元线性回归分析,探讨了4种因素对颗粒物排放因子的影响力大小排序.结果显示:24组柴油机测试的颗粒物排放因子均值为(21.9±24.5) mg·kWh~(-1);使用国Ⅴ排放标准柴油机的颗粒物排放因子((14.7±5.6) mg·kWh~(-1))比国Ⅳ排放标准柴油机((19.4±16.4) mg·kWh~(-1))有所下降;国Ⅳ柴油、国Ⅴ柴油和混合柴油的颗粒物排放因子平均值分别为120.0、(11.8±1.0)和(11.5±1.3) mg·kWh~(-1),混合柴油颗粒物排放因子与国Ⅴ柴油相近,两者相比国Ⅳ柴油有明显下降;油品种类是影响颗粒物排放因子的第一大因素,后处理是影响颗粒物排放因子的第二大因素.     

多承载索货运索道计算方法及张力不平衡效应分析

通过分析多承载索货运索道工作索的空间位置关系,在弹性悬链线计算方法的基础上,建立包括索道结构守恒方程和力平衡方程的非线性方程组,形成多承载索货运索道系统整体耦合计算方法。针对四承载索货运索道的典型设计工况,应用该方法完成承载索长度不一致情况下,货运索道的承载索张力变化分析。研究结果表明:多承载索货运索道承载索间的张力不平衡受索长偏差影响极大,而且不平衡效应与索长变化工况（索长偏差变化量、变化索的位置等）和载荷重量密切相关,多索索长不一致造成的张力不平衡使得承载索破断风险急剧增加。     

基于支持向量机的管制疲劳检测模型研究

管制疲劳是影响民航安全的重大隐患,准确检测疲劳状态是进行疲劳预警、降低疲劳风险的关键。提出应用支持向量机模型融合多生理参数和眼动指标进行管制疲劳检测,通过MP150多导生理记录仪与眼动仪,采集模拟管制试验中正常与剥夺睡眠状态下被试的试验数据,同时记录其Karolinska疲劳等级和操作绩效。结果表明,RR间期、LF/HF、快慢波比值、PERCLOS和扫视速度均与管制疲劳呈较强相关,利用支持向量机融合五项指标构建管制疲劳检测模型,对于五级疲劳度的识别准确率为78. 1%,判断正常组与剥夺睡眠组的准确率为94. 2%。     

Influence of Representation Targets on the Total Area of Conservation-Area Networks

Abstract:  Systematic conservation planning typically requires specification of quantitative representation targets for biodiversity surrogates such as species, vegetation types, and environmental parameters. Targets are usually specified either as the minimum total area in a conservation-area network in which a surrogate must be present or as the proportion of a surrogate's existing spatial distribution required to be in the network. Because the biological basis for setting targets is often unclear, a better understanding of how targets affect selection of conservation areas is needed. We studied how the total area of conservation-area networks depends on percentage targets ranging from 5% to 95%. We analyzed 12 data sets of different surrogate distributions from 5 regions: Korea, Mexico, Québec, Queensland, and West Virginia. To assess the effect of spatial resolution on the target-area relationship, we also analyzed each data set at 7 spatial resolutions ranging from 0.01°× 0.01° to 0.10°× 0.10°. Most of the data sets showed a linear relationship between representation targets and total area of conservation-area networks that was invariant across changes in spatial resolution. The slope of this relationship indicated how total area increased with target level, and our results suggest that greater surrogate representation requires significantly more area. One data set exhibited a highly nonlinear relationship. The results for this data set suggest a new method for setting targets on the basis of the functional form of target-area relationships. In particular, the method shows how the target-area relationship can provide a rationale for setting targets solely on the basis of distributional information about surrogates.     

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea‐level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18‐year marsh‐bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea‐level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (?2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from ?4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea‐level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.     

Factors influencing incidental representation of previously unknown conservation features in marine protected areas

Spatially explicit information on species distributions for conservation planning is invariably incomplete; therefore, the use of surrogates is required to represent broad‐scale patterns of biodiversity. Despite significant interest in the effectiveness of surrogates for predicting spatial distributions of biodiversity, few researchers have explored questions involving the ability of surrogates to incidentally represent unknown features of conservation interest. We used the Great Barrier Reef marine reserve network to examine factors affecting incidental representation of conservation features that were unknown at the time the reserve network was established. We used spatially explicit information on the distribution of 39 seabed habitats and biological assemblages and the conservation planning software Marxan to examine how incidental representation was affected by the spatial characteristics of the features; the conservation objectives (the minimum proportion of each feature included in no‐take areas); the spatial configuration of no‐take areas; and the opportunity cost of conservation. Cost was closely and inversely correlated to incidental representation. However, incidental representation was achieved, even in a region with only coarse‐scale environmental data, by adopting a precautionary approach that explicitly considered the potential for unknown features. Our results indicate that incidental representation is enhanced by partitioning selection units along biophysical gradients to account for unknown within‐feature variability and ensuring that no‐take areas are well distributed throughout the region; by setting high conservation objectives that (in this case >33%) maximize the chances of capturing unknown features incidentally; and by carefully considering the designation of cost to planning units when using decision‐support tools for reserve design. The lessons learned from incidental representation in the Great Barrier Reef have implications for conservation planning in other regions, particularly those that lack detailed environmental and ecological data.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: perspectives and perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden

Climate change vulnerability is disproportionately distributed between different population segments in society. This study qualitatively explores how key stakeholders in municipalities (i.e. planning and operational staff in municipalities and the vulnerable themselves) construct social vulnerability in relation to climate change with a specific focus on thermal stress (i.e. heat waves) and which adaptive responses they identify at different levels. The empirical material consists of five focus groups with actors in a large Swedish municipality where the “Vulnerability Factor Card Game” was used as stimulus material to create 10 fictional individuals. The results show that there is a substantial amount of local knowledge about vulnerability drivers and inter-relations between social factors and vulnerability. Local decision-makers also defined a wide range of possible adaptation measures at different municipal levels. Our study clearly indicates that contextualised knowledge, which could complement the quantitative approaches in research, is abundant among municipal planners, staff employed at municipal operations such as health care, and among the vulnerable themselves. This knowledge remains untapped by research to a great extent and only seems to have an insignificant influence on policy-making. In particular, how impacts vary between different social and demographic groups and how adaptation strategies that target the most vulnerable could be defined are of great interest. The present study clearly indicates that social hierarchy may produce increased inequality in the specific context of climate change, vulnerability and adaptive responses at different levels.     

海河流域社会经济发展对河流水质的影响

海河流域社会经济快速发展,主要河流水质恶化.本文基于海河流域人口规模、经济产值和土地利用变化过程,结合河流社会经济发展指标和水质变化统计分析,从流域废污水排放和水资源利用等角度分析社会经济对水环境影响机制.研究表明,流域人口规模大幅增长、工业生产强度大幅提高,工业聚集区由北京-天津地区扩展到北京-天津-唐山、石家庄、聊城-德州等地区,导致海河流域工业废水和生活污水排放规模迅速上升,成为河流水质恶化直接驱动力.城市扩张是流域土地利用变化最显著特征,近30年来城市用地面积增加85%,北京-天津-唐山城市群规模扩大,造成流域水资源开发利强度加剧,降低河流自净缓冲能力.因子分析表明,流域影响河流水质因素分解为农村、城市和自然等3个方面,其中城市化过程和农村社会经济发展对河流水体污染物浓度水平影响非常显著.     

近60a来中国洪涝灾情变化趋势持续性和周期性研究

本文利用Hurst指数和小波分析工具对洪涝灾情的1950~2010年的变化动态作了分析,揭示了灾情序列的趋势持续性、特征时间尺度、周期特征和突变点,同时还定性地预测了洪涝灾情的未来走势。研究结果发现:1)根据Hurst指数计算结果,受灾面积时间序列的Hurst指数为0.9338,具有很强的正持续性。未来有进一步增加的趋势。因灾死亡人口数时间序列的Hurst指数为0.4845,具有很弱的反持续性。而房屋倒塌间数时间序列的Hurst指数为0.6124,具有较弱的正持续性,未来有较弱的减少趋势。2)小波分析方法具有较好时空域特性,可以描述洪涝灾害灾情变化的多尺度特征,将隐含在灾情序列中随时间变化的周期震荡显现出来,并确定灾情序列中的突变点位置,为深入探索中国洪涝灾害的时空复杂性提供了全新的理论工具。3)中国洪涝灾害灾情都存在多时间尺度特征,不同的时间尺度表现为不同的循环交替,大尺度的周期变化嵌套着小尺度的周期变化。总体上表现为由小尺度的震荡剧烈,没有明显的规律到大尺度出现明显规律后继续增强或先升后降。4)60 a来,中国洪涝灾害受害面积总体上保持着增加的趋势。在9 a和25 a上分别存在着第1和第2主周期。中国洪涝灾害因灾死亡人口总体上保持着明显减少的趋势。在8 a和18 a上分别存在着第1和第2主周期。中国洪涝灾害倒塌房屋总数总体上保持着减少的趋势。在8 a、17 a和25 a上分别存在着第1、第2和第3主周期。