近60a来中国洪涝灾情变化趋势持续性和周期性研究

本文利用Hurst指数和小波分析工具对洪涝灾情的1950~2010年的变化动态作了分析,揭示了灾情序列的趋势持续性、特征时间尺度、周期特征和突变点,同时还定性地预测了洪涝灾情的未来走势。研究结果发现:1)根据Hurst指数计算结果,受灾面积时间序列的Hurst指数为0.9338,具有很强的正持续性。未来有进一步增加的趋势。因灾死亡人口数时间序列的Hurst指数为0.4845,具有很弱的反持续性。而房屋倒塌间数时间序列的Hurst指数为0.6124,具有较弱的正持续性,未来有较弱的减少趋势。2)小波分析方法具有较好时空域特性,可以描述洪涝灾害灾情变化的多尺度特征,将隐含在灾情序列中随时间变化的周期震荡显现出来,并确定灾情序列中的突变点位置,为深入探索中国洪涝灾害的时空复杂性提供了全新的理论工具。3)中国洪涝灾害灾情都存在多时间尺度特征,不同的时间尺度表现为不同的循环交替,大尺度的周期变化嵌套着小尺度的周期变化。总体上表现为由小尺度的震荡剧烈,没有明显的规律到大尺度出现明显规律后继续增强或先升后降。4)60 a来,中国洪涝灾害受害面积总体上保持着增加的趋势。在9 a和25 a上分别存在着第1和第2主周期。中国洪涝灾害因灾死亡人口总体上保持着明显减少的趋势。在8 a和18 a上分别存在着第1和第2主周期。中国洪涝灾害倒塌房屋总数总体上保持着减少的趋势。在8 a、17 a和25 a上分别存在着第1、第2和第3主周期。     

超高压液相色谱/质谱联用法测定水中拟除虫菊酯类农药研究

建立了水中6种拟除虫菊酯类农药的超高压液相色谱/质谱联用分析方法.对液相色谱和质谱两方面条件进行优化,采用多反应监测（MRM）模式分析,各组分在0.005～0.1 mg/L范围内线性关系良好,相关系数（R）均大于0.998;6种拟除虫菊酯类农药的最低检出限为0.000 5 ～0.002 mg/L,其中,溴氰菊酯的方法检出限满足《地表水环境质量标准》限值要求;各组分的加标回收率在92.8％～103％;相对标准偏差（RSD）均小于5％（n=6）.该方法简单、快捷,可用于实际水样的直接测定.     

北京平原区夏垫断裂的多源遥感影像特征

1679年9月2日三河—平谷8.0级地震在地表形成总体走向N40°~45°E,倾角60°~70°,长达10 km的破裂带。该文采用Landsat-8、SPOT-5、SAR、GDEM、Google Earth多源遥感影像研究夏垫断裂的遥感影像特征。利用ERDAS软件,对Landsat-8影像按7∶4∶2依次为R、G、B分量作彩色合成增强处理,突出影像的线性构造特征;对Landsat-8和SPOT-5影像、Landsat-8和SAR影像分别进行融合处理,丰富影像的光谱信息;对GDEM与SPOT影像进行三维叠加,突出影像的三维特征;对SAR影像进行斑点压缩、方向滤波处理,突出影像平行断裂方向的线性特征。文中分析、对比了Google Earth和SPOT-5影像上地震陡坎的特征,陡坎在SPOT-5影像上表现较明显,但在影像上表现不出较低陡坎,同时,在两种影像上容易将绿色植被、狭窄道路或其它地物误认为陡坎;SAR滤波后的影像表现出暗色的线性条带;Landsat-8和SAR融合后的影像表现出较宽的异常条带,该条带指示断裂带所在位置。     

Removal of arsenate with hydrous ferric oxide coprecipitation：Effect of humic acid

Insights from the adverse effect of humic acid(HA) on arsenate removal with hydrous ferric oxide(HFO) coprecipitation can further our understanding of the fate of As(V) in water treatment process. The motivation of our study is to explore the competitive adsorption mechanisms of humic acid and As(V) on HFO on the molecular scale. Multiple complementary techniques were used including macroscopic adsorption experiments, surface enhanced Raman scattering(SERS), extended X-ray absorption fine structure(EXAFS) spectroscopy, flow-cell attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared(ATR-FTIR) measurement, and charge distribution multisite complexation(CDMUSIC) modeling. The As(V) removal efficiency was reduced from over 95% to about 10% with the increasing HA concentration to 25 times of As(V) mass concentration. The SERS analysis excluded the HA-As(V) complex formation. The EXAFS results indicate that As(V) formed bidentate binuclear surface complexes in the presence of HA as evidenced by an As-Fe distance of 3.26–3.31 ?. The in situ ATR-FTIR measurements show that As(V) replaces surface hydroxyl groups and forms innersphere complex. High concentrations of HA may physically block the surface sites and inhibit the As(V) access. The adsorption of As(V) and HA decreased the point of zero charge of HFO from 7.8 to 5.8 and 6.3, respectively. The CD-MUSIC model described the zeta potential curves and adsorption edges of As(V) and HA reasonably well.     

Relations between Conspecific Density and Effects of Ultraviolet‐B Radiation on Tadpole Size in the Striped Marsh Frog

Global increases in ultraviolet‐B radiation (UVBR) associated with stratospheric ozone depletion are potentially contributing to the decline of numerous amphibian species around the world. Exposure to UVBR alone reduces survival and induces a range of sublethal effects in embryonic and larval amphibians. When additional environmental stressors are present, UVBR can have compounding negative effects. Thus, examination of the effects of UVBR in the absence of other stressors may substantially underestimate its potential to affect amphibians in natural habitats. We examined the independent and interactive effects of increased UVBR and high conspecific density would have embryonic and larval striped marsh frogs (Limnodynastes peronii). We exposed individuals to a factorial combination of low and high UVBR levels and low, medium, and high densities of striped marsh frog tadpoles. The response variables were time to hatching, hatching success, posthatch survival, burst‐swimming performance of tadpoles (maximum instantaneous swim speed following an escape response), and size and morphology of tadpoles. Consistent with results of previous studies, we found that exposure to UVBR alone increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the burst‐swimming performance and size of tadpoles. Similarly, increasing conspecific density increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the size of tadpoles, but had no effect on burst‐swimming performance. The negative effect of UVBR on tadpole size was not apparent at high densities of tadpoles. This result suggests that tadpoles living at higher densities may invest relatively less energy in growth and thus have more energy to repair UVBR‐induced damage. Lower densities of conspecifics increased the negative effects of UVBR on developing amphibians. Thus, low‐density populations, which may include declining populations, may be particularly susceptible to the detrimental effects of increased UVBR and thus may be driven toward extinction faster than might be expected on the basis of results from single‐factor studies. Relaciones entre la Densidad Conespecífica y los Efectos de la Radiación Ultravioleta‐B sobre el Tamaño de Renacuajos de Limnodynastes peronei     

Update on selective reduction

Over the past 25 years fetal reduction has been utilized to reduce the risks of higher-order multiple pregnancies that have resulted from overly successful infertility therapies. The demographics of multiple pregnancy patients have evolved over the past decade, with increasing proportions coming from IVF as opposed to ovulation induction, being older and a higher proportion with donor eggs. Genetic diagnosis prior to reduction is becoming more common and is very safe in experienced hands. For all starting numbers, including twins, reduction to a lower number of fetuses reduces fetal losses, prematurity, and infant mortality and morbidity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental strategies: A case study of systematic evaluation

A major problem facing environmental managers is the necessity to effectively evaluate management alternatives. Traditional environmental assessments have emphasized the use of economic analyses. These approaches are often deficient due to difficulty in assigning dollar values to environmental systems and to social amenities. A more flexible decisionmaking model has been developed to analyze management options for coping with beach erosion problems at the Sandy Hook Unit of Gateway National Recreation Area in New Jersey. This model is comprised of decision-making variables which are formulated from a combination of environmental and management criteria, and it has an accept-reject format in which the management options are analyzed in terms of the variables. Through logical ordering of the insertion of the variables into the model, stepwise elimination of alternatives is possible. A hierarchy of variables is determined through estimating work required to complete an assessment of the alternatives for each variable. The assessment requiring the least work is performed first so that the more difficult evaluation will be limited to fewer alternatives. The application of this approach is illustrated with a case study in which beach protection alternatives were evaluated for the United States National Park Service.Portions of this paper have been excerpted from Sherman and Garès (1978).     

PROBLEMS IN FORECASTING WATER REQUIREMENTS1

ABSTRACT. Methodological problems associated with forecasting water requirements by use of regression analysis are examined. Problems occurring when long-range forecasts are based on linear and nonlinear extrapolation of time series models include possible changes in socioeconomic conditions, water allocation system structure, and limits to growth. Problems arising in forecasting based on multiple regression models are likely to involve serially dependent errors, multicollinear explanatory variables, and difficulties inherent to the presence of explanatory variables that must themselves be predicted.     

OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT AND DESIGN OF HYDRAULIC SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A possible methodology is developed to deal with the problem of designing complex pipeline systems, when they are subject to different rates of demand, and when a hypothesis of the flow distribution in different branches is not allowed. The mathematical algorithm used in linear programming. The problem, which is not linear, is dealt with by means of an iterative method; that is, by starting with a possible solution and inserting at each iteration the solution found in the preceding iteration. By taking as variables of the problem the piezometric heads of the ends for each branch of the network, the piezometric gradients and flows, and by thus considering the diameter as a derived variable, it is possible to isolate the nonlinearity in the cost function of the network. The latter is linearized each time close to the solution found in the preceding iteration.