基于PCA-VMD-CNN的输电线路覆冰重量预测模型*

为防止覆冰灾害危及电路安全,提出1种输电线路覆冰重量预测模型。首先对多个气象因素进行主成分分析提取气象因素中的有效信息,再对覆冰历史数据进行变分模态分解,获得具有不同特性的本征模态分量;然后基于卷积神经网络,对具有不同时间尺度（周期性、波动性不同）的各个分量进行训练及预测,并将每个分量的预测结果相加。研究结果表明:通过对某覆冰区域的输电线路监测数据进行实验仿真,研究所提出的覆冰重量预测模型有更高精度。     

Defining Goals and Criteria for Ecosystem-Based Management

/ Identifying goals or targets for landscape and ecosystem management is now a widely recognized need that has received little systematic attention. At a micro-level most planners and managers of both ecosystems and economies continue to pursue traditional goals and targets that miss many desirable characteristics of ecosystem-based management goals. Desirable characteristics of ecosystem and landscape management goals and targets include: addressing complexity, transdisciplinarity, and the dynamic nature of natural systems; reflecting the wide range of interests and goals that exist; recognizing goals and values and limits; involving people and being explainable and implementable in a consistent way to different people and groups; and evolving adaptively as conditions and knowledge change. Substantive and procedural goals can be distinguished; the latter supporting the former. Substantive goals can be grouped according to their relationship to system structure, organization, and process/dynamics, and their disciplinary or subsystemic breadth. These discussions are illustrated by a review of the goals of biodiversity, sustainability, ecological health, and integrity. An example of a hierarchical framework of procedural goals and objectives that supports achievement of substantive goals is also provided. The conclusion is that a parallel, linked system of substantive and procedural goals at different levels of complexity and disciplinarity is needed to facilitate ecosystem-based management.KEY WORDS: Ecosystem management; Goals and objectives; Assessment criteria     

Ambient Ultraviolet B Radiation and Prevalence of Infection by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Two Amphibian Species

Abstract: Chytridiomycosis, the emerging disease caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is responsible for declines and extirpations of amphibian populations worldwide. Environmental covariates modify the host‐Bd interaction and thus affect the ongoing spread of the pathogen. One such covariate may be the intensity of ultraviolet B (UV‐B) radiation. In a field experiment conducted in Laguna Grande de Peñalara (central Spain), a mountainous region where the presence of Bd has been documented since 1997, we analyzed the potential effect of environmental UV‐B (daily maximum 2.5–3.9 W/m²) on the susceptibility of larvae of the common toad (Bufo bufo) to Bd. The proportion of infected individuals increased as tadpoles developed. The prevalence of Bd was significantly lower in tadpoles exposed to environmental UV‐B intensities (2.94%) than in tadpoles not exposed to the radiation (9.72%). This finding mirrors that seen for a second amphibian species, the European midwife toad (Alytes obstetricans), for which conditional prevalence (i.e., prevalence of infection conditioned on the probability of a site being infected) across the Iberian Peninsula was inversely correlated with the intensity of UV‐B.     

Combustion features under different center of heat release of a diesel engine using dimethyl carbonate/diesel blend

Experiments were performed in a single cylinder common-rail diesel engine that adopts a low temperature premixed charge compression ignition (PCCI) mode. Combustion features of dimethyl carbonate (DMC)-diesel blends under various centers of heat release (COHRs) were revealed in details. With retarding of COHR, all the peaks of pressure and pressure rise rate and bulk gas temperature are postponed and declined in sequence. Normally, the crank angle of peak pressure is quite close to the COHR, while the peak of bulk gas temperature appears about 7°CA after COHR as a rule. The prolongation can be demonstrated at every stage of combustion such as q₁₀ and q₉₀ with the COHR being put backward. In addition, the heat release of diesel is completely slower than that of D10 fuel at various stages. Unfortunately, retarding of COHR implies a declining thermal efficiency of engines as well as a higher cyclic variation in general. Nevertheless, D10 blend has higher thermal efficiency than diesel thanks to high oxygen content of DMC and low boiling point that prompts better fuel atomization and complete combustion. Meanwhile, the cyclical variation of D10 is greater than diesel fuel owing to the low heat value, high latent heat of vaporization, and poor flammability of DMC. As a total, a comprehensive understanding of PCCI combustion features under different COHRs can be conducive to conducting effective management of combustion process and manipulating the subsequent emission performance to a favorable level.     

天津地区环境监测点PM2.5量化分析模型

为了研究天津地区PM2.5与5种日常监测的污染物——PM10、SO2、CO、O3和NO2的定量关系,通过天津环保物联网获取了11个环境监测点2013年8月—2014年5月的日监测数据,分别尝试了多元一次回归模型、二次回归模型和基于主成分分析回归模型进行建模与量化分析。相关性上,天津地区各站点PM2.5与5种污染物显著相关,其中与PM10、SO2和NO2相关系数分别达到0.89±0.03、0.63±0.09和0.69±0.06。模型评价结果表明,利用5种污染物监测指标预估PM2.5浓度基本可行,基于主成分分析模型效果最好,拟合度能够达到0.85以上,平均误差在20%左右。     

佛山臭氧浓度预报方程的建立与应用

臭氧作为大气中的二次污染物,其形成和变化复杂,臭氧预报更是当下空气污染治理的难题之一.通过分析2014~2017年佛山地区近地面O₃浓度与高低层气象要素的关系,建立了佛山O₃浓度预报方程,并进行了检验和应用.结果表明,佛山近地面O₃的变化与高低层气象要素关系密切,气温和日照时数等气象要素与O₃浓度呈显著正相关,相对湿度、总（低）云量和风速等与其呈负相关;高浓度O₃污染发生的气象条件为小风速、晴间少云、低相对湿度、较长的日照时间和较高的温度,高浓度O₃潜势指数（HOPI）和风向指数（WDI）的定义可以较好地衡量O₃污染气象条件的好坏;综合考虑HOPI和不同高度WDI等13种气象要素,采用多指标叠套和多元逐步回归建立了佛山地区臭氧浓度预报方程;利用2018年资料检验发现,模拟值与实测值二者的相关系数R可达0.82,预报方程具有良好的拟合效果和可预报性.     

多次进水-曝气的好氧颗粒污泥系统实验

选用SBR反应器R1和R2接种污水处理厂活性污泥,以生活污水为进水,分别采用一次进水-曝气策略和多次进水-曝气策略运行,对运行过程中粒径变化及处理效果进行研究.实验表明,运行56和39 d后R1和R2成功实现污泥颗粒化;稳定运行后R1和R2中出水COD、 TN和TP浓度(mg·L^-1)分别为29.7、 13.7、 0.31和19.2、 8.1、 0.37,去除率分别为87.7%、 75.6%、 95.1%和90.1%、 85.6%、 94.2%,其中颗粒平均粒径达到740μm和791μm.结果表明,相同运行时间下,R2中的出水NO^-₃-N浓度和出水TP浓度低于R1.运行后期,R1和R2中DPAO占全部PAOs的比值由最初11.17%分别增至25.47%和34.08%.与一次进水-曝气策略相比,采用多次进水-曝气策略运行在启动初期系统内NO^-₃-N浓度较低,PAOs受到的冲击更小,DPAO富集情况更好,除磷性能更好,利于AGS的形成.     

基于遥感和GIS的赤水河水质对流域土地利用的响应研究

利用2009年TM影像和11个断面的水质监测数据,同时在缓冲区和子流域尺度上,分析了赤水河流域内土地利用方式与水质指标（溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮）之间的相关关系,并建立水质对土地利用结构的空间响应模型。由相关性分析得：从缓冲区尺度到子流域尺度,建设用地与氨氮的相关性由显著正相关变为高度正相关,相关系数达到0836;与高锰酸盐指数的相关性则由普通正相关变为显著正相关,相关系数为0776。耕地与高锰酸盐指数的相关性由显著正相关增加为高度正相关,相关系数达到0913;与氨氮的相关系数也增加到0782;而耕地与溶解氧则由缓冲区尺度的一般负相关变为子流域尺度的显著负相关,相关系数达0609。在缓冲区尺度上,林地与氨氮、高锰酸盐指数呈负相关,相关程度总体上随着缓冲半径的增大而增大;而当研究尺度为依自然属性划分的子流域时,林地与氨氮呈现出显著负相关,相关系数达到0673;与高锰酸盐指数呈现出高度负相关,相关系数达到0822;且在子流域尺度上林地对溶解氧的“汇”的作用才充分表现出来,相关系数达0718。研究结果表明：赤水河流域土地利用方式对水质有重要影响。赤水河流域内的城镇建设用地和耕地对流域水质有着严重的负面影响,承载在其上的城市生活、工业污水和农业面源污染(种养殖)是河流水质污染的重要污染源。林地对流域的水质污染有重要的缓解作用。总体上,各水质参数与土地利用类型间的相关性在子流域和缓冲区两种尺度下表现出一致的规律,但这种相关性在子流域尺度下表现的更为显著。研究成果可为赤水河流域的水污染防治、土地利用方式优化提供科学依据,并为同类研究提供借鉴     

东北地区林业产业结构变动对林业经济增长的贡献

运用数学模型对东北地区林业产业结构变动对林业经济增长的贡献进行了定量测度.基于多部门经济模型,研究1996年以来东北地区及其黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省林业产业结构对经济增长贡献(Z值)的变化趋势得出:Z值在长期波动中呈下降趋势,产业结构稳定性增强;基于偏离—份额分析方法分解1996-2009年Z值的地域差异构成,得出黑龙江、吉林和辽宁林业产业结构变动对当地林业经济增长的贡献地域差异明显,对各省今后林业产业结构调整和林业产业发展的方向、可行措施提出了相应的对策建议.     

降尘规律研究--兰州城区降尘变化规律及多元自身回归预测

探讨了降尘的年变化、月变化.运用逐步回归筛选变量.采用主分量分析法,得出不同季节的主分量,揭示了降尘的规律,建立了多元自身回归预测方程.对城区降尘进了预测,并与实测作了验证和对比,取得较好效果.