基于CEEMDAN的多时间尺度的北京市PM2.5浓度影响因素研究

研究PM_2.5浓度的主要影响因素,对提升北京市空气质量具有重要意义。与以往仅限于原始时间尺度的研究不同,本文基于CEEMDAN方法考察了多时间尺度下年平均风速、城市绿化、人口密度、产业结构和能源强度对北京市PM_2.5浓度波动的影响,并与原始时间尺度的主导因素进行对比。研究发现：原始尺度的北京市PM_2.5浓度影响因素是不同时间尺度内影响因素合力作用结果,不同时间尺度下影响因素不同。城市绿化、人口密度、产业结构和能源强度在多时间尺度中起到短期增强波动的作用,城市绿化和产业结构是贯穿于各个时间尺度的具有趋势性,决定北京市PM_2.5浓度基本走势的影响因素。     

Wrong-way driving crashes: A multiple correspondence approach to identify contributing factors

Objective: Wrong-way driving (WWD) crashes result in 1.34 fatalities per fatal crash, whereas for other non-WWD fatal crashes this number drops to 1.10. As such, further in-depth investigation of WWD crashes is necessary. The objective of this study is 2-fold: to identify the characteristics that best describe WWD crashes and to verify the factors associated with WWD occurrence.

Methods: We collected and analyzed 15 years of crash data from the states of Illinois and Alabama. The final data set includes 398 WWD crashes. The rarity of WWD events and the consequently small sample size of the crash database significantly influence the application of conventional log-linear models in analyzing the data, because they use maximum-likelihood estimation. To overcome this issue, in this study, we employ multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) to define the structure of the crash data set and identify the significant contributing factors to WWD crashes on freeways.

Results: The results of the present study specify various factors that characterize and influence the probability of WWD crashes and can thus lead to the development of several safety countermeasures and recommendations. According to the obtained results, factors such as driver age, driver condition, roadway surface conditions, and lighting conditions were among the most significant contributors to WWD crashes.

Conclusions: Despite many other methods that identify only the contributing factors, this method can identify possible associations between various contributing factors. This is an inherent advantage of the MCA method, which can provide a major opportunity for state departments of transportation (DOTs) to select safety countermeasures that are associated with multiple safety benefits.     

The perception of Malaysian pedestrians toward the use of footbridges

Objective: The footbridge is a vital structure in the road network and a cornerstone among crossing facilities. Yet, it suffers from low usage by pedestrians as they try to cross the street on the level. This study aims to analyze the perceptions of Malaysian pedestrians toward the use of footbridges with the consideration of different factors.

Method: The study was carried out by collecting data from field observation and questionnaire distribution on the street among the public. The data were statistically analyzed by applying multiple linear regression models and a series of chi-square tests.

Results: The study found that the most influential factor cited by pedestrians in decision making regarding using a footbridge is the existence of an escalator. Being in a hurry and the fear of heights were significantly associated with choosing not to use a footbridge. Zebra crossing was chosen as the most favorable type of crossing facility by the majority of respondents. In addition, installation of a fence and barriers was proposed as an effective procedure to prevent jaywalking. To construct new and efficient footbridges in the future, the study suggests consideration of traffic volume, posted speed limit, and the number of lanes, because these are the most influential factors to predict the usage rate.

Conclusions: The study encourages decision makers and stakeholders to consider providing escalators for new footbridges to enhance the safety of pedestrians.     

降尘规律研究--兰州城区降尘变化规律及多元自身回归预测

探讨了降尘的年变化、月变化.运用逐步回归筛选变量.采用主分量分析法,得出不同季节的主分量,揭示了降尘的规律,建立了多元自身回归预测方程.对城区降尘进了预测,并与实测作了验证和对比,取得较好效果.     

Combining Accuracy Assessment of Land-Cover Maps with Environmental Monitoring Programs

A scientifically valid accuracy assessment of a large-area, land-cover map is expensive. Environmental monitoring programs offer a potential source of data to partially defray the cost of accuracy assessment while still maintaining the statistical validity. In this article, three general strategies for combining accuracy assessment and environmental monitoring protocols are described. These strategies range from a fully integrated accuracy assessment and environmental monitoring protocol, to one in which the protocols operate nearly independently. For all three strategies, features critical to using monitoring data for accuracy assessment include compatibility of the land-cover classification schemes, precisely co-registered sample data, and spatial and temporal compatibility of the map and reference data. Two monitoring programs, the National Resources Inventory (NRI) and the Forest Inventory and Monitoring (FIM), are used to illustrate important features for implementing a combined protocol.     

Introduction of Relative Abundance Distribution (RAD) Indices, Estimated from the Rank-Frequency Diagrams (RFD), to Assess Changes in Community Diversity

Quantifying a relative abundance distribution based on thesampling of a set of species is a widespread problem in ecology.A number of diversity indices have been proposed and used in numerous works in spite of a lack of statistical characteristics and tests of comparison. The relative abundancedistribution can also be described using rank-frequency diagrams but fitting these diagrams to mathematical models such as the Zipf-Mandelbrot model remains problematic. Strong correlation between the Zipf-Mandelbrot model parameters prevent their estimation by optimization algorithm. In light of this, new indices of sampled communities are introduced here. These indices are two linear regression slopes estimated from rank-frequency diagrams. The numerous statistical studies that have been carried out on linear regression models are used to compare sampled communities. These new indices possesscharacteristic properties with an ecological meaning.Correlations between these indices, the Zipf-Mandelbrot modelparameters and an evenness diversity index are examined. Anecological application is made using entomological data as anexample. This example consists of a transect from the edge of apond to a dry forest along which 60,000 insects were sampledfrom six different sampling stations. Using the new indicesdescribed here, station C, located at the edge of that areasubject to influence from the pond, is differentiated from theother stations. This station would seem to present the lowestdegree of niche diversity and the lowest evenness, and recent observations confirm the deterioration of this station.     

碳市场对能源结构低碳转型的影响及作用路径

选取中国2000～2018年30个省市的面板数据,构建了能源消费结构低碳化指数,基于多期双重差分、三重差分等方法实证检验碳交易政策与能源消费结构低碳转型之间的关系及异质性影响,并进一步利用多重中介效应模型探讨碳交易政策推动地区能源消费结构低碳转型的作用路径.结果表明:碳交易政策可以显著提升地区能源消费结构低碳化水平且作用效果逐年增强.从作用路径看,“四大效应”激励作用彰显,作用效果由大到小依次为结构优化效应、行为驱动效应、生态创新效应和环保支出效应;从异质性影响看,GDP增速较慢地区的政策实施加快了能源消费结构低碳转型,影响明显高于GDP增速较快地区;碳交易政策对东部地区的正向推动效应显著,对中西部地区无明显促进作用.     

Cd-Pb-Cu复合污染对芥菜生长及生理特性的影响

我国农业土壤Cd,Cu和Pb污染严重,威胁食品安全. 该研究以十字花科植物芥菜为试验材料,通过盆栽均匀设计试验,探讨了重金属Cd,Cu和Pb及其交互作用对芥菜生长及生理特性的影响. 结果表明:Cd-Cu-Pb复合效应显著抑制了芥菜的生长,地下部受损伤程度大于地上部,并且抑制w(叶绿素),叶绿素a对复合污染更为敏感;Cu-Pb复合效应对芥菜生长的抑制作用远大于其他因素,有利于提高w(叶绿素),Cd是导致w(叶绿素)降低的主要因素. w(Cu)低于200 mg/kg时,芥菜叶片SOD酶活性显著高于对照(P<0.05),反之,SOD酶活性急剧下降,丙二醛(MDA)与脯氨酸大量积累.      

下辽河平原多熟种植农业生态模式知识库研建

本文以下辽河平原为背景,应用专家系统开发工具建立了多熟种植农业生态模式知识库,提出了建立该专家系统知识库的步骤：包括知识获取、知识表达、编码及证实。该专家系统知识库的建立能将有关多熟种植领域的专门知识和领域专家的经验以可接受的方式传递给农业决策者,从而提高农业决策的自动化和科学化。     

浙江金华秋季干气溶胶中主要化学组分的消光贡献解析

造成雾霾事件的主要原因是高浓度的大气细颗粒物污染.为了深入研究大气细颗粒物的消光来源,本研究采用高时间分辨率气溶胶观测仪器获得了浙江金华秋季PM1主要化学组分浓度及干气溶胶吸收系数和散射系数演变情况.结合有机气溶胶正矩阵因子解析模型(PMF)和多元线性回归方法,建立了拟合优度很高(R2=0.977)的细颗粒物中主要化学组分与干气溶胶消光系数间的定量关系模型.结果表明,观测期间消光贡献最大的是硫酸铵,贡献率为35.1%;其次是硝酸铵,贡献率为26.7%;二次有机气溶胶(SOA)、生物质燃烧有机气溶胶(BBOA)、黑碳(BC)及氯化铵的消光贡献率分别为14.3%、11.2%、8.7%、4.0%.在一些特定污染时段,BBOA具有最大的消光贡献,是导致此时大气能见度大幅度衰减的首要因子.