博物馆与内蒙古草原濒危物种的保护

关于内蒙古草原动、植物自然保护濒危物种的保护做了一些详细的调查，并就博物馆作为自然遗存和文化遗存的保护与使用机构，它具有保护藏品、教研以及收藏价值。     

On the functional extinction of the Passenger Pigeon

The Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) was a social breeder, and it has been suggested that the species experienced functional extinction, defined as a total reproductive failure, prior to its actual extinction in the early years of the 20th century. We applied a novel randomization test based on the relative times of the most recent egg‐ and skin‐specimen sightings (i.e., recorded date of specimen collection) to test for functional extinction. For a total of 6 eggs and 27 skins, the observed significance level was 0.38, which indicated that the species did not become functionally extinct. Thus, proposals to reverse its rapid decline in the late 19th century could have been successful.     

Specimen‐Based Modeling,Stopping Rules,and the Extinction of the Ivory‐Billed Woodpecker

Abstract: Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co‐occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo‐referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10^?5, with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1–3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.     

Identifying Anomalous Reports of Putatively Extinct Species and Why It Matters

Abstract:  As species become very rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can stir controversy, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We used quantitative methods to identify reports that do not fit prior sighting patterns. We also examined the effects of including records that meet different evidentiary standards on quantitative extinction assessments for four charismatic bird species that might be extinct: Eskimo Curlew ( Numenius borealis ), Ivory-billed Woodpecker ( Campephilus principalis ), Nukupu`u ( Hemignathus lucidus ), and O`ahu `Alauahio ( Paroreomyza maculata ). For all four species the probability of there being a valid sighting today, given the past pattern of verified sightings, was estimated to be very low. The estimates of extinction dates and the chance of new sightings, however, differed considerably depending on the criteria used for data inclusion. When a historical sighting record lacked long periods without sightings, the likelihood of new sightings declined quickly with time since the last confirmed sighting. For species with this type of historical record, therefore, new reports should meet an especially high burden of proof to be acceptable. Such quantitative models could be incorporated into the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List criteria to set evidentiary standards required for unconfirmed sightings of "possibly extinct" species and to standardize extinction assessments across species.     

尾矿库运行期DADT循环管控技术

为提高尾矿库这一矿山重大危险源安全监管系统化水平,实现数字化安全监管,提出了全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术理论。这项技术首先需要整合管控对象的三维数字化测控成果与调研资料,建立全寿命周期“健康档案”,其次运用DADT循环管控方法,同时耦合相关专业技术,“诊断、分析、设计、治理”管控对象的安全特征要素,发现并解决安全隐患。结合尾矿库自身特点与测控成果,阐述了尾矿库全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术的运行流程。以白马尾矿库为例,在三维点云数据基础上建立实体模型,运用全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术,耦合调洪演算过程,结果表明,尾矿库在后期堆排过程中,库区会出现“封闭水域”,提前发现并科学解决了尾矿库排洪隐患。全寿命周期DADT循环管控技术的运用,克服了以往安全监管对管控对象安全状况系统性掌控的不足,有利于精确处理安全隐患,为数字化安全监管的实现提供了一种全新思路。     

气相爆轰波通过声学吸收壁时强度衰减过程的实验研究

该文旨在研究稳定的气体爆轰波通过声学吸收壁强度衰减的过程。研究表明，当实验气体的初始压力小于某一临界值Pε时，爆轰波发生显著的衰减现象，胞格逐渐消失，爆速下降到稳定爆速的约0．5倍。该文利用不同初压下的烟迹图详细地分析了横波衰减并因此导致稳定爆轰波强度衰减的机理，给出了爆轰波与声学吸收壁作用的一个简化的理论模型，并且得到了衰减长度随初压变化的实验曲线。     

竹炭净化文物保存微环境空气低浓度氮氧化物

围绕竹炭对低浓度氮氧化物的净化效果展开研究,测定了不同NOx浓度、不同流量、不同湿度条件、不同竹炭量对低浓度氮氧化物的净化效果;研究了表面改性生物质的净化效果。结果表明：选用3g以上竹炭,在湿度〈20％,流量控制在1—1．5L／min的情况下对低浓度（150ppb）氮氧化物具有最佳的净化效果;流量控制在2L／min以下（停留时间为1．5s以上）,竹炭对NO2净化效果变化不大;活化剂改性和对竹炭进行超声处理后,生物质对NO净化效果有明显的提高作用。     

我国典型季风海洋型冰川积累区冰雪剖面的环境记录

运用多种方法,对白水1号冰川积累区冰雪剖面的主要阴、阳离子和δ18O的环境意义分析表明,受强烈淋溶作用影响,离子和δ18O的季节变化不明显,剖面离子浓度显著低于雪坑,离子流失量较大。NH4+年际变化最为显著,与丽江降水表现出相同的变化趋势,Mg2+和Ca2+浓度与冰雪剖面净积累量呈反向变化。分析表明,阴离子主要是湿沉降产物,阳离子主要是干沉降产物。该剖面所反映的13年δ18O比率变化介于-11.8‰～-14.6‰。冰雪剖面中δ18O与西南季风指数、冰雪剖面积累量、丽江降水和丽江气温呈反向变化,表现出显著的"降水量效应"。     

Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean–Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species’ pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region—the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129–237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.