Determining Decision Thresholds and Evaluating Indicators when Conservation Status is Measured as a Continuum

Categorization of the status of populations, species, and ecosystems underpins most conservation activities. Status is often based on how a system's current indicator value (e.g., change in abundance) relates to some threshold of conservation concern. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves can be used to quantify the statistical reliability of indicators of conservation status and evaluate trade‐offs between correct (true positive) and incorrect (false positive) classifications across a range of decision thresholds. However, ROC curves assume a discrete, binary relationship between an indicator and the conservation status it is meant to track, which is a simplification of the more realistic continuum of conservation status, and may limit the applicability of ROC curves in conservation science. We describe a modified ROC curve that treats conservation status as a continuum rather than a discrete state. We explored the influence of this continuum and typical sources of variation in abundance that can lead to classification errors (i.e., random variation and measurement error) on the true and false positive rates corresponding to varying decision thresholds and the reliability of change in abundance as an indicator of conservation status, respectively. We applied our modified ROC approach to an indicator of endangerment in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (i.e., percent decline in geometric mean abundance) and an indicator of marine ecosystem structure and function (i.e., detritivore biomass). Failure to treat conservation status as a continuum when choosing thresholds for indicators resulted in the misidentification of trade‐offs between true and false positive rates and the overestimation of an indicator's reliability. We argue for treating conservation status as a continuum when ROC curves are used to evaluate decision thresholds in indicators for the assessment of conservation status. Determinación de Umbrales de Decisiones y Evaluación delos Indicadores cuando se Mide el Estado de de Conservación como un Continuo     

Effects of wind‐energy facilities on breeding grassland bird distributions

The contribution of renewable energy to meet worldwide demand continues to grow. Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable sectors, but new wind facilities are often placed in prime wildlife habitat. Long‐term studies that incorporate a rigorous statistical design to evaluate the effects of wind facilities on wildlife are rare. We conducted a before‐after‐control‐impact (BACI) assessment to determine if wind facilities placed in native mixed‐grass prairies displaced breeding grassland birds. During 2003–2012, we monitored changes in bird density in 3 study areas in North Dakota and South Dakota (U.S.A.). We examined whether displacement or attraction occurred 1 year after construction (immediate effect) and the average displacement or attraction 2–5 years after construction (delayed effect). We tested for these effects overall and within distance bands of 100, 200, 300, and >300 m from turbines. We observed displacement for 7 of 9 species. One species was unaffected by wind facilities and one species exhibited attraction. Displacement and attraction generally occurred within 100 m and often extended up to 300 m. In a few instances, displacement extended beyond 300 m. Displacement and attraction occurred 1 year after construction and persisted at least 5 years. Our research provides a framework for applying a BACI design to displacement studies and highlights the erroneous conclusions that can be made without the benefit of adopting such a design. More broadly, species‐specific behaviors can be used to inform management decisions about turbine placement and the potential impact to individual species. Additionally, the avoidance distance metrics we estimated can facilitate future development of models evaluating impacts of wind facilities under differing land‐use scenarios.     

Economic Valuation of Subsistence Harvest of Wildlife in Madagascar

Wildlife consumption can be viewed as an ecosystem provisioning service (the production of a material good through ecological functioning) because of wildlife's ability to persist under sustainable levels of harvest. We used the case of wildlife harvest and consumption in northeastern Madagascar to identify the distribution of these services to local households and communities to further our understanding of local reliance on natural resources. We inferred these benefits from demand curves built with data on wildlife sales transactions. On average, the value of wildlife provisioning represented 57% of annual household cash income in local communities from the Makira Natural Park and Masoala National Park, and harvested areas produced an economic return of U.S.$0.42 ha^?1· year^?1. Variability in value of harvested wildlife was high among communities and households with an approximate 2 orders of magnitude difference in the proportional value of wildlife to household income. The imputed price of harvested wildlife and its consumption were strongly associated (p< 0.001), and increases in price led to reduced harvest for consumption. Heightened monitoring and enforcement of hunting could increase the costs of harvesting and thus elevate the price and reduce consumption of wildlife. Increased enforcement would therefore be beneficial to biodiversity conservation but could limit local people's food supply. Specifically, our results provide an estimate of the cost of offsetting economic losses to local populations from the enforcement of conservation policies. By explicitly estimating the welfare effects of consumed wildlife, our results may inform targeted interventions by public health and development specialists as they allocate sparse funds to support regions, households, or individuals most vulnerable to changes in access to wildlife. Valoración Económica de la Caza de Subsistencia de Vida Silvestre en Madagascar     

Using Changes in Agricultural Utility to Quantify Future Climate‐Induced Risk to Conservation

Much of the biodiversity‐related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop‐climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near‐term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. Uso de Cambios en la Utilidad Agrícola para Cuantificar Riesgos Futuros para la Conservación Inducidos por el Clima     

Indigenous People's Detection of Rapid Ecological Change

When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster‐relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. Detección del Cambio Ecológico Rápido por la Población Indígena     

Combining Auctions and Performance‐Based Payments in a Forest Enrichment Field Trial in Western Kenya

Cost‐effectiveness is an important aspect in the assessment of payments for environmental services (PES) initiatives. In participatory field trials with communities in Western Kenya, we combined procurement auctions for forest enrichment contracts with performance‐based payments and compared the outcomes with a baseline scenario currently used by the Kenyan Forest Service. Procurement auctions were the most cost‐effective. The competitive nature of the auction reduced contracting expenses (provision costs), and the result‐oriented payments provided additional incentives to care for the planted seedlings, resulting in their improved survival rates (service quantity). These gains clearly exceeded increases in transaction costs associated with conducting an auction. The number of income‐poor auction participants and winners was disproportionately high and local institutional buy‐in was remarkably strong. Our participatory approach may, however, require adaptations when conducted at a larger scale. Although the number of contracts we monitored was limited and prohibited the use of statistical tests, our study is one of the first to reveal the benefits of using auctions for PES in developing countries. Combinando Subastas y Pagos Basados en Desempeño en un Ensayo de Campo de Enriquecimiento de Bosques en el Oeste de Kenia     

Use of ecoacoustics to determine biodiversity patterns across ecological gradients

The variety of local animal sounds characterizes a landscape. We used ecoacoustics to noninvasively assess the species richness of various biotopes typical of an ecofriendly forest plantation with diverse ecological gradients and both nonnative and indigenous vegetation. The reference area was an adjacent large World Heritage Site protected area (PA). All sites were in a global biodiversity hotspot. Our results showed how taxa segregated into various biotopes. We identified 65 singing species, including birds, frogs, crickets, and katydids. Large, natural, protected grassland sites in the PA had the highest mean acoustic diversity (14.1 species/site). Areas covered in nonnative timber or grass species were devoid of acoustic species. Sites grazed by native and domestic megaherbivores were fairly rich (5.1) in acoustic species but none were unique to this habitat type, where acoustic diversity was greater than in intensively managed grassland sites (0.04). Natural vegetation patches inside the plantation mosaic supported high mean acoustic diversity (indigenous forests 7.6, grasslands 8.0, wetlands 9.1), which increased as plant heterogeneity and patch size increased. Indigenous forest patches within the plantation mosaic contained a highly characteristic acoustic species assemblage, emphasizing their complementary contribution to local biodiversity. Overall, acoustic signals determined spatial biodiversity patterns and can be a useful tool for guiding conservation.     

A meta‐analysis of studies on attitudes toward bears and wolves across Europe 1976–2012

The ranges of wolves (Canis lupus) and bears (Ursus arctos) across Europe have expanded recently, and it is important to assess public attitudes toward this expansion because responses toward these species vary widely. General attitudes toward an object are good predictors of broad behavioral patterns; thus, attitudes toward wolves and bears can be used as indicators to assess the social foundation for future conservation efforts. However, most attitude surveys toward bears and wolves are limited in scope, both temporally and spatially, and provide only a snapshot of attitudes. To extend the results of individual surveys over a much larger temporal and geographical range so as to identify transnational patterns and changes in attitudes toward bears and wolves over time, we conducted a meta‐analysis. Our analysis included 105 quantitative surveys conducted in 24 countries from 1976 to 2012. Across Europe, people's attitudes were more positive toward bears than wolves. Attitudes toward bears became more positive over time, but attitudes toward wolves seemed to become less favorable the longer people coexisted with them. Younger and more educated people had more positive attitudes toward wolves and bears than people who had experienced damage from these species, and farmers and hunters had less positive attitudes toward wolves than the general public. For bears attitudes among social groups did not differ. To inform conservation of large carnivores, we recommend that standardized longitudinal surveys be established to monitor changes in attitudes over time relative to carnivore population development. Our results emphasize the need for interdisciplinary research in this field and more advanced explanatory models capable of capturing individual and societal responses to changes in large carnivore policy and management.