A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

环境因子和火干扰因子对喀纳斯泰加林柳兰分布的影响

喀纳斯泰加林植被的生长和分布受火干扰和环境因子的共同作用,为了解喀纳斯泰加林林下柳兰分布与生态因子的关系,促进种群扩繁,共设置了35个样地进行调查和分析。建立柳兰重要值与生态因子矩阵,利用CCA分析法对不同火烧林分中柳兰的生长分布状况与林火烈度、火后时间、海拔、坡度、坡向、郁闭度、土壤pH值、速效钾、土壤有机质、灌木层盖度、草本层盖度和草本层物种多样性指数等20个生态因子的关系进行了分析。结果显示,第一轴主要反映林火烈度、海拔、坡向,灌木层盖度、pH值、有机质、全钾和速效钾的变化;第二轴主要反映林火烈度、火后时间、草本层盖度、坡向、坡位、土壤容重、电导率、有机质、有效磷和全氮的变化。对柳兰分布有显著影响的生态因子是林火烈度、有机质、海拔、坡向、灌木层盖度、土壤容重、全钾和速效钾,前两轴的累计贡献率为72.48%。柳兰适合在土壤呈弱酸性、海拔低、阳坡、土壤容重小、土壤有机质、全钾和速效钾含量高的环境中生长。柳兰是阳性植物,是火烧后的先锋植物。对影响柳兰分布的生态因子进行定量分离,结果发现环境因子和火干扰因子对柳兰样地物种分布的解释能力为88.2%,显示出较好的排序效果。喀纳斯泰加林受人为干扰较少,柳兰所在植物群落与环境保持了良好的对应关系,生态因子与物种分布呈显著相关(P=0.003),表明CCA排序结果可以解释生态因子对物种分布的影响程度。     

基于链式多重插补的WOA-ELM煤与瓦斯突出预测模型*

为了提高缺失数据下煤与瓦斯突出预测准确率,提出1种基于链式支持向量机多重插补（MICE_SVM）的鲸鱼优化算法（WOA）-极限学习机（ELM）预测模型,以淮南朱集矿区为例,选取5个煤与瓦斯突出影响指标作为模型特征,采用提出的MICE_SVM算法插补突出事故数据中缺失值,利用WOA优选ELM输入层权值及隐含层阈值,构建煤与瓦斯突出预测模型,将插补后数据用于WOA-ELM模型的训练与测试,并与其他模型的预测效果对比。研究结果表明:MICE_SVM插补前、后的有突出数据预测准确率分别为83.02%,90.41%,MICE_SVM显著提高了有突出预测准确率,对无突出和整体的预测准确率提高不明显;数据插补后WOA优化ELM对无突出、有突出和整体的预测准确率分别为97.94%,96.25%,96.48%,较优化前分别提高了5.79%,5.84%,5.55%,数据插补后WOA-ELM为最佳预测模型。     

稻田落干过程砷甲基化效率变化与关键影响因素分析

研究稻田落干过程砷甲基化效率变化规律,分析关键环境和生物因素的影响,为今后水稻直穗病防控提供科学依据.开展室内培养模拟稻田落干过程,以采集自贵州兴仁（XR）和广西南丹（ND）的两种砷污染水稻土壤为供试土壤,各土壤设置添加（RS）和不添加（CK）水稻秸秆处理,分析自然落干0、24、36、48和60 h过程中Eh、pH、孔隙水总有机碳（TOC）、砷形态、砷甲基化功能基因（arsM）、硫酸盐还原菌（dsrA,砷甲基化相关微生物）、产甲烷菌（mcrA,砷去甲基化相关微生物）丰度和arsM功能微生物多样性变化.稻田落干过程土壤Eh由完全淹水状态下的-300~-200 mV向落干后的-150~-50 mV变迁,而pH值变化规律不明显;孔隙水无机砷（iAs）和二甲基砷（DMAs）浓度随落干过程变化更为显著,总体呈现增加趋势,且RS处理DMAs浓度显著高于CK,ND土壤孔隙水比XR土壤孔隙水DMAs浓度更高;随落干时间延长,XR-CK和XR-RS处理土壤砷甲基化效率有一定提升,但变化不显著,而ND-CK和ND-RS处理土壤砷甲基化效率显著增加.当培养为60 h时,ND-CK和ND-RS处理砷甲基化效率相比培养初期分别提高约61.8%和23.2%;随落干时间延长arsM和dsrA基因拷贝数明显增加,而mcrA基因拷贝数显著下降.秸秆添加后显著提高全细菌和arsM、dsrA和mcrA基因丰度;进一步基于多因素方差分析和冗余分析发现,供试土壤、秸秆添加、落干时间和其交互作用对于各砷形态、砷甲基化效率和关键基因丰度变化影响显著,TOC、Eh和砷甲基化相关基因与甲基态砷呈正向关联,而与无机砷iAs呈负向关联;基于arsM微生物测序发现,伴随落干过程还发生着砷甲基化功能微生物群落的更替.研究结果有助于提升稻田落干过程中砷甲基化变化的理论认知,为今后水稻直穗病科学防控提供指导.     

基于贝叶斯理论的小麦籽粒镉铅超标风险预测

对农作物污染风险进行预测具有重大意义.基于贝叶斯定理及数据分布特征,建立了贝叶斯风险预测模型,并使用区域大田调查土壤-小麦重金属含量数据,预测小麦籽粒Cd和Pb超标风险并验证该模型的准确度.结果表明,该模型预测小麦籽粒Cd超标风险时相对偏差较小,以小麦籽粒Cd含量为变量的预测相对偏差仅为(2.66±1.87)%,以土壤DTPA-Cd含量和土壤Cd全量为变量时预测相对偏差则分别为(5.11±3.77)%和(5.88±3.87)%, 3个变量均能使预测结果与真实超标概率的平均相对偏差小于10%.预测小麦籽粒Pb超标风险时,仅小麦籽粒Pb含量的预测相对偏差小于10%.数据来源、数据分布特征和变量的选择是影响贝叶斯风险预测模型预测相对偏差的重要因素.该模型基于大田数据的先验分布,能够有效反映大田生产条件下小麦籽粒重金属与土壤因子间的相互关系,预测较准确,具有应用潜力.     

Hybrid zeolite-based ion-exchange and sulfur oxidizing denitrification for advanced slaughterhouse wastewater treatment

The discharge of slau ghterhouse wastewater（SWW） is incre asing and its wastewater has to be treated thoroughly to avoid the eutrophication.The hybrid zeolite-based ion-exchange and sulfur autotrophic denitrification（IX-AD） process was developed to advanced treat SWW after traditional secondary biological process.Compared with traditional sulfur oxidizing denitrification（SOD）,this study found that IX-AD column showed:（1） stronger ability to resist NO₃^-pollution load,（2） low...     

城市垃圾焚烧飞灰特性及水泥固化试验研究

试验分析了重庆市某城市垃圾焚烧发电厂飞灰的化学成分,研究了原飞灰的浸出毒性,考察了水泥对原飞灰和酸洗预处理飞灰中重金属的固化效果. 结果表明:飞灰中重金属Pb和Zn的浸出质量浓度均超过《危险废物浸出毒性鉴别标准》(GB5085.3-2007),因而被认为是危险废物,必须对之进行稳定化处理;酸洗预处理飞灰固化试块的抗压强度得到了一定程度的提高,其重金属Pb和Zn的浸出毒性均较相同配比、相同养护时间的原飞灰固化试块有明显降低;酸洗预处理飞灰固化试块抗压强度随掺入飞灰比例的降低和养护时间的延长而加大,在养护28 d时其抗压强度最高,达4.25 MPa;酸洗预处理飞灰固化试块在养护28 d时,其重金属Pb和Zn的浸出质量浓度分别比原飞灰所制固化试块降低了10.6%～59.0%和7.4%～73.7%.      

Distribution-free two-sample comparisons in the case of heterogeneous variances

Behavioral ecologists are often faced with a situation where they need to compare the central tendencies of two samples. The standard tools of the t test and Mann–Whitney U test (equivalent to the Wilcoxon rank-sum test) are unreliable when the variances of the groups are different. The problem is particularly severe when sample sizes are different between groups. The unequal-variance t test (Welch test) may not be suitable for nonnormal data. Here, we propose the use of Brunner and Munzel’s generalized Wilcoxon test followed by randomization to allow for small sample sizes. This tests whether the probability of an individual from one population being bigger than an individual from the other deviates from random expectation. This probability may sometimes be a more clear and informative measure of difference between the groups than a difference in more commonly used measures of central tendency (such as the mean). We provide a recipe for carrying out a statistical test of the null hypothesis that this probability is 50% and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique for sample sizes typical in behavioral ecology. Although the test is not available in any commercial software package, it is relatively straightforward to implement for anyone with some programming ability. Furthermore, implementations in R and SAS are freely available on the internet.     

Coupling a land use model and an ecosystem model for a crop-pasture zone

This paper describes the development of a land use model coupling ecosystem processes. For a given land use pattern in a region, a built-in regional ecosystem model (TESim) simulates leaf physiology of plants, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and hydrological processes including runoff generation and run-on re-absorption, as well as runoff-induced soil erosion and carbon and nitrogen loss from ecosystems. The simulation results for a certain period from 1976 to 1999 were then used to support land use decisions and to assess the impacts of land use changes on environment. In the coupling model, the land use type for a land unit was determined by optimization of a weighted suitability derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. The model was applied to the temperate crop-pasture band in northern China (CCPB) to analyze the interactions between land use and major ecosystem processes and functions and to indicate the added value of the feedbacks by comparing simulations with and without the coupling and feedbacks between land use module and ecosystem processes. The results indicated that the current land use in CCPB is neither economical nor ecologically judicious. The scenario with feedbacks increased NPP by 46.78 g C m⁻² a⁻¹, or 32.23% of the scenario without feedbacks, also decreased soil erosion by 0.65 kg m⁻² a⁻¹, or 23.13%. Without altering the regional land use structure (proportions of each land use type). The system developed in this study potentially benefits both land managers and researchers.     

纳米硫化镉量子点细胞毒性作用机制

为初步探讨硫化镉量子点(CdS QDs)的细胞毒性作用机制,采用MTT毒性实验比较了CdS QDs和常规CdS对仓鼠肺细胞(CHL)的毒性效应以及细胞内外活性氧水平.结果表明,1)在较低暴露浓度(≤20μg·mL-1)时,CdS QDs细胞毒性显著高于常规CdS,而在较高暴露浓度(>20μg·mL-1)时,两者相差不大.2)在较低暴露浓度(≤40μg·mL-1)时,添加N-乙酰半胱氨酸(NAC)可显著降低CdS QDs的细胞毒性,而在较高暴露浓度(>40μg·mL-1)时,添加NAC对CdS QDs的细胞毒性没有明显影响.添加NAC对常规CdS细胞毒性没有显著影响.综合实验结果推测CdS QDs的细胞毒性与暴露剂量有关:在低浓度(<20μg·mL-1)时,主要是活性氧的氧化损伤作用;在中等浓度(20~40μg·mL-1)时,活性氧和Cd2+的释放共同作用;在高浓度(>40μg·mL-1)时,则是Cd2+的释放占主导地位.