A landscape of conservation philanthropy for U.S. land trusts

Finding ways to increase financial support is critical to conservation efforts. We used conservation fundraising data, unprecedented in their resolution, to reveal spatial patterns in philanthropic giving to a major land protection organization in the United States. We also quantified the relationship between the amount of effort devoted to fundraising and donations received. Around 40% of the variation in the propensity to give and overall value of gifts was explained by sociodemographic and other predictors. For example, education level had greater predictive capacity than income, political views, and other factors often considered important. Fundraising effort was strongly predictive of the amount donated in an area. Our model estimated a doubling of funds raised with a 5-fold increase of effort. Conservation organizations could use our statistical framework to inform efforts aimed at increasing philanthropic giving by identifying locations with large model residuals. An example application of our framework showed an almost 40% increase (US$200 million) in fundraising revenue for the case-study conservation organization.     

Frog occupancy of polluted wetlands in urban landscapes

Urban sprawl and the rising popularity of water-sensitive urban design of urban landscapes has led to a global surge in the number of wetlands constructed to collect and treat stormwater runoff in cities. However, contaminants, such as heavy metals and pesticides, in stormwater adversely affect the survival, growth, and reproduction of animals inhabiting these wetlands. A key question is whether wildlife can identify and avoid highly polluted wetlands. We investigated whether pond-breeding frogs are attempting to breed in wetlands that affect the fitness of their offspring across 67 urban wetlands in Melbourne, Australia. Frog species richness and the concentration of contaminants (heavy metals and pesticides) were not significantly related, even in the most polluted wetlands. The proportion of fringing vegetation at a wetland had the greatest positive influence on the number of frog species present and the probability of occurrence of individual species, indicating that frogs inhabited wetlands with abundant vegetation, regardless of their pollution status. These wetlands contained contaminant levels similar to urban wetlands around the world at levels that reduce larval amphibian survival. These results are, thus, likely generalizable to other areas, suggesting that urban managers could inadvertently be creating ecological traps in countless cities. Wetlands are important tools for the management of urban stormwater runoff, but their construction should not facilitate declines in wetland-dependent urban wildlife.     

Refuge‐Effect Hypothesis and the Demise of the Dodo

The Dodo was last sighted on the inshore island of Ile d'Ambre in 1662, nearly 25 years after the previous sighting on the mainland of Mauritius. It has been suggested that its survival on the inshore island is representative of the refuge effect. Understanding what constitutes significant persistence is fundamental to conservation. I tested the refuge‐effect hypothesis for the persistence of the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus) on an inshore island beyond that of the mainland population. For a location to be considered a refuge, most current definitions suggest that both spatial and temporal isolation from the cause of disturbance are required. These results suggest the island was not a refuge for the Dodo because the sighting in 1662 was not temporally isolated from that of the mainland sightings. Furthermore, with only approximately 350 m separating Ile d'Ambre from the mainland of Mauritius, it is unlikely this population of Dodos was spatially isolated. Hipótesis del Efecto Refugio y la Desaparición del Dodo     

Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook Salmon

Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low‐sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act‐mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999–2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April–June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April–June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17–32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life‐history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions’ long‐term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook     

Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long‐term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long‐term projections of climate‐change effects provide temporal context as a species‐wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas     

Estimation of spatiotemporal trends in bat abundance from mortality data collected at wind turbines

Renewable energy sources, such as wind energy, are essential tools for reducing the causes of climate change, but wind turbines can pose a collision risk for bats. To date, the population-level effects of wind-related mortality have been estimated for only 1 bat species. To estimate temporal trends in bat abundance, we considered wind turbines as opportunistic sampling tools for flying bats (analogous to fishing nets), where catch per unit effort (carcass abundance per monitored turbine) is a proxy for aerial abundance of bats, after accounting for seasonal variation in activity. We used a large, standardized data set of records of bat carcasses from 594 turbines in southern Ontario, Canada, and corrected these data to account for surveyor efficiency and scavenger removal. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate temporal trends in aerial abundance of bats and to explore the effect of spatial factors, including landscape features associated with bat habitat (e.g., wetlands, croplands, and forested lands), on the number of mortalities for each species. The models showed a rapid decline in the abundance of 4 species in our study area; declines in capture of carcasses over 7 years ranged from 65% (big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus]) to 91% (silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]). Estimated declines were independent of the effects of mitigation (increasing wind speed at which turbines begin to generate electricity from 3.5 to 5.5 m/s), which significantly reduced but did not eliminate bat mortality. Late-summer mortality of hoary (Lasiurus cinereus), eastern red (Lasiurus borealis), and silver-haired bats was predicted by woodlot cover, and mortality of big brown bats decreased with increasing elevation. These landscape predictors of bat mortality can inform the siting of future wind energy operations. Our most important result is the apparent decline in abundance of four common species of bat in the airspace, which requires further investigation.     

A guide to using the internet to monitor and quantify the wildlife trade

The unrivaled growth in e-commerce of animals and plants presents an unprecedented opportunity to monitor wildlife trade to inform conservation, biosecurity, and law enforcement. Using the internet to quantify the scale of the wildlife trade (volume and frequency) is a relatively recent and rapidly developing approach that lacks an accessible framework for locating relevant websites and collecting data. We produced an accessible guide for internet-based wildlife trade surveillance. We detailed a repeatable method involving a systematic internet search, with search engines, to locate relevant websites and content. For data collection, we highlight web-scraping technology as an efficient way to collect data in an automated fashion at regularly timed intervals. Our guide is applicable to the multitude of trade-based contexts because researchers can tailor search keywords for specific taxa or derived products and locations of interest. We provide information for working with the diversity of websites used in wildlife trade. For example, to locate relevant content on social media (e.g., posts or groups), each social media platform should be examined individually via the site's internal search engine. A key advantage of using the internet to study wildlife trade is the relative ease of access to an increasing amount of trade-related data. However, not all wildlife trade occurs online and it may occur on unobservable sections of the internet.     

Improving collaboration in the implementation of global biodiversity conventions

Eight conventions make up the biodiversity cluster of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) that provide the critical international legal framework for the conservation and sustainable use of nature. However, concerns about the rate of implementation of the conventions at the national level have triggered discussions about the effectiveness of these MEAs in halting the loss of biodiversity. Two main concerns have emerged: lack of capacity and resources and lack of coherence in implementing multiple conventions. We focused on the latter and considered the mechanisms by which international conventions are translated into national policy. Specifically, we examined how the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 and the associated Aichi Biodiversity Targets have functioned as a unifying grand plan for biodiversity conservation. This strategic plan has been used to coordinate and align targets to promote and enable more effective implementation across all biodiversity-related conventions. Results of a survey of 139 key stakeholders from 88 countries suggests streamlining across ministries and agencies, improved coordination mechanisms with all relevant stakeholders, and better knowledge sharing between conventions could improve cooperation among biodiversity-related conventions. The roadmap for improving synergies among conventions agreed to at the 13th Convention on Biological Diversity's Conference of Parties in 2016 includes actions such as mechanisms to avoid duplication in national reporting and monitoring on conventions and capacity building related to information and knowledge sharing. We suggest the scientific community can actively engage and contribute to the policy process by establishing a science-policy platform to address knowledge gaps; improving data gathering, reporting, and monitoring; developing indicators that adequately support implementation of national plans and strategies; and providing evidence-based recommendations to policy makers. The latter will be particularly important as 2020 approaches and work to develop a new biodiversity agenda for the next decade is beginning.     

Simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance from counts of unmarked individuals with imperfect detection

We developed a method to estimate population abundance from simultaneous counts of unmarked individuals over multiple sites. We considered that at each sampling occasion, individuals in a population could be detected at 1 of the survey sites or remain undetected and used either multinomial or binomial simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance, the latter being equivalent to an N-mixture model with one site. We tested model performance with simulations over a range of detection probabilities, population sizes, growth rates, number of years, sampling occasions, and sites. We then applied our method to 3 critically endangered vulture species in Cambodia to demonstrate the real-world applicability of the model and to provide the first abundance estimates for these species in Cambodia. Our new approach works best when existing methods are expected to perform poorly (i.e., few sites and large variation in abundance among sites) and if individuals may move among sites between sampling occasions. The approach performed better when there were >8 sampling occasions and net probability of detection was high (>0.5). We believe our approach will be useful in particular for simultaneous surveys at aggregation sites, such as roosts. The method complements existing approaches for estimating abundance of unmarked individuals and is the first method designed specifically for simultaneous counts.     

Site-selection bias and apparent population declines in long-term studies

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. Logistical difficulties and the spatiotemporal variability of populations make estimation of population declines difficult. For statistical reasons, estimates of population decline may be biased when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species. In this situation, apparent population declines are likely to be detected even if there is no decline. This site-selection bias is mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We used simulations and real population data to examine the effects of site-selection biases on inferences about population trends. We used a left-censoring method to detect population-size patterns consistent with site-selection bias. The site-selection bias is an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis. Article impact statement: Estimates of population declines are biased if studies begin in large populations, and time-series data show a signature of such an effect.