Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange

Net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is typically measured directly by eddy covariance towers or is estimated by ecosystem process models, yet comparisons between the data obtained by these two methods can show poor correspondence. There are three potential explanations for this discrepancy. First, estimates of NEE as measured by the eddy-covariance technique are laden with uncertainty and can potentially provide a poor baseline for models to be tested against. Second, there could be fundamental problems in model structure that prevent an accurate simulation of NEE. Third, ecosystem process models are dependent on ecophysiological parameter sets derived from field measurements in which a single parameter for a given species can vary considerably. The latter problem suggests that with such broad variation among multiple inputs, any ecosystem modeling scheme must account for the possibility that many combinations of apparently feasible parameter values might not allow the model to emulate the observed NEE dynamics of a terrestrial ecosystem, as well as the possibility that there may be many parameter sets within a particular model structure that can successfully reproduce the observed data. We examined the extent to which these three issues influence estimates of NEE in a widely used ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, by adapting the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. This procedure involved 400,000 model runs, each with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in estimates of NEE that were compared to daily NEE data from young and mature Ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon. Of the 400,000 simulations run with different parameter sets for each age class (800,000 total), over 99% of the simulations underestimated the magnitude of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange, with only 4.07% and 0.045% of all simulations providing satisfactory simulations of the field data for the young and mature stands, even when uncertainties in eddy-covariance measurements are accounted for. Results indicate fundamental shortcomings in the ability of this model to produce realistic carbon flux data over the course of forest development, and we suspect that much of the mismatch derives from an inability to realistically model ecosystem respiration. However, difficulties in estimating historic climate data are also a cause for model-data mismatch, particularly in a highly ecotonal region such as central Oregon. This latter difficulty may be less prevalent in other ecosystems, but it nonetheless highlights a challenge in trying to develop a dynamic representation of the terrestrial biosphere.     

Neutral modelling of agricultural landscapes by tessellation methods—Application for gene flow simulation

Neutral landscape models are not frequently used in the agronomical domain, whereas they would be very useful for studying given agro-ecological or physical processes. Contrary to ecological neutral landscape models, agricultural models have to represent and manage geometrical patches and thus should rely on tessellation methods. We present a three steps approach that aimed at simulating such landscapes. Firstly, we characterized the geometry of three real field patterns; secondly, we generated simulated field patterns with two tessellation methods attempting to control the value of some of the observed characteristics and, thirdly, we evaluated the simulated field patterns. For this evaluation, we considered that good simulated field patterns should capture characteristics of real landscapes that are important for the targeted agro-ecological process. Real landscapes and landscapes simulated using either a Voronoi or a rectangular tessellation were thus compared when used as input data within a gene flow model. The results showed that neither tessellation method captured field shapes correctly, thus leading to over or (small) under estimation of gene flow. The Voronoi tessellation, though, performed better than the rectangular tessellation. Possible research directions are proposed to improve the simulated patterns, including the use of post-processing, the control of cell orientation or the implementation of other tessellation techniques.     

综采工作面粉尘运移和粉尘浓度三维分布的数值模拟研究

分析了综采工作面流场及粉尘分布的特点 ,视工作面含尘风流为气 粒两相流 ,建立了描述综采工作面风流中粉尘运动和浓度分布的数学模型。采用计算流体力学的有限容积法求解 ,编制了模拟计算综采工作面三维空间内风速和粉尘浓度分布的计算机程序     

调节风阀与风量的测量

根据玻璃熔窑助燃风系统 ,分析了工业炉燃烧自动控制过程中 ,调节风阀结构和流量计及其相对安装位置对风量测量及自控的影响 ,对通风自控系统设计、选型及安装具有一定的参考价值     

金川公司二矿区通风系统风流非定常流动规律研究

实际上 ,矿井的风流状态受多种因素影响 ,金川公司二矿区井下风流就处于非定常状态 ,为了保证生产安全 ,控制风流状态 ,采取相应的通风措施 ,开设课题研究 ,建立了井巷内空气非定常流动能量方程和通风网络中非定常流动的数学模型。根据该模型可以模拟出矿井通风系统内非定常状态下任意时刻、任意位置通过风量。通过对金川公司二矿区井下机站风机开停和风门开关引起通风系统风流的非定常流动过程的数值模拟 ,得出了受其影响区域内风流状态的变化规律 ,并为其采取通风措施和控制风流状态 ,提供了科学依据     

LONG‐TERM CHANGES IN REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC REGIME FOLLOWING IMPOUNDMENT IN A HUMID‐CLIMATE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We analyzed the type of hydrologic adjustments resulting from flow regulation across a range of dam types, distributed throughout the Connecticut River watershed, using two approaches: (1) the Index of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and (2) log‐Pearson Type III flood frequency analysis. We applied these analyses to seven rivers that have extensive pre‐and post‐disturbance flow records and to six rivers that have only long post‐regulation flow records. Lastly, we analyzed six unregulated streams to establish the regional natural flow regime and to test whether it has changed significantly over time in the context of an increase in forest cover from less than 20 percent historically to greater than 80 percent at present. We found significant hydrologic adjustments associated with both impoundments and land use change. On average, maximum peak flows decrease by 32 percent in impounded rivers, but the effect decreases with increasing flow duration. One‐day minimum low flows increase following regulation, except for the hydro‐electric facility on the mainstem. Hydrograph reversals occur more commonly now on the mainstem, but the tributary flood control structures experience diminished reversals. Major shifts in flood frequency occur with the largest effect occurring downstream of tributary flood control impoundments and less so downstream of the mainstem's hydroelectric facility. These overall results indicate that the hydrologic impacts of dams in humid environments can be as significant as those for large, multiple‐purpose reservoirs in more arid environments.     

TEN YEARS OF VEGETATION SUCCESSION ON A DEBRIS‐FLOW DEPOSIT IN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: We tracked vegetation succession on a debris‐flow deposit in Oregon's Coast Range to examine factors influencing the development of riparian plant communities following disturbance. Plots were stratified across five areas of the deposit (bank slump, seep, upper and lower sediment wedge, log jam) the first growing season after debris flow. At six times during the next ten years we estimated cover of vascular plants and tallied density of woody plants. Plant colonization occurred within two years. Total cover increased two‐to seven‐fold on the five areas within three years. Red alder and salmonberry were the dominant species, although weedy herbs persisted where woody species were lacking. Ordination of cover data showed that the five areas remained floristically distinct over time, while undergoing similar shifts related to the increasing dominance of alder and salmonberry. Rapid height growth of alder allowed it to outcompete salmonberry and effectively capture most areas by the tenth year, even where sprouts from transported rhizomes gave salmonberry an early advantage. Our results suggest that successional patterns were influenced by substrate variability, species composition of initial colonizers, propagule sources and their distribution, and species life‐history traits such as growth rate, competitive ability, and shade tolerance.     

A SIMPLE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING BASEFLOW AT UNGAGED LOCATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Baseflow, or water that enters a stream from slowly varying sources such as ground water, can be critical to humans and ecosystems. We evaluate a simple method for estimating base‐flow parameters at ungaged sites. The method uses one or more baseflow discharge measurements at the ungaged site and longterm streamflow data from a nearby gaged site. A given baseflow parameter, such as the median, is estimated as the product of the corresponding gage site parameter and the geometric mean of the ratios of the measured baseflow discharges and the concurrent discharges at the gage site. If baseflows at gaged and ungaged sites have a bivariate lognormal distribution with high correlation and nearly equal log variances, the estimated baseflow parameters are very accurate. We tested the proposed method using long‐term streamflow data from two watershed pairs in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin. For one watershed pair, the theoretical assumptions are well met; for the other the log‐variances are substantially different. In the first case, the method performs well for estimating both annual and long‐term baseflow parameters. In the second, the method performs remarkably well for estimating annual mean and annual median baseflow discharge, but less well for estimating the annual lower decile and the long‐term mean, median, and lower decile. In general, the use of four measurements in a year is not substantially better than the use of two.     

CHAOTIC FORECASTING OF DISCHARGE TIME SERIES: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the problem of forecasting the discharge time series of a river by means of a chaotic approach. To this aim, we first check for some evidence of chaotic behavior in the dynamic by considering a set of different procedures, namely, the phase portrait of the attractor, the correlation dimension, and the largest Lyapunov exponent. Their joint application seems to confirm the presence of a nonlinear deterministic dynamic of chaotic type. Second, we consider the so‐called nearest neighbors predictor and we compare it with a classical linear model. By comparing these two predictors, it seems that nonlinear river flow modeling, and in particular chaotic modeling, is an effective method to improve predictions.     

SIMULATED ANNEALING WITH MEMORY AND DIRECTIONAL SEARCH FOR GROUND WATER REMEDIATION DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Review of recent literature indicates an emergence in the use of combinatorial methods such as simulated annealing in ground water management during the past nine to ten years. While previous studies demonstrated the feasibility of using these methods, a general finding was that computational processing requirements were inordinately high relative to gradient‐based methods. An enhanced annealing algorithm was developed and used to demonstrate the potential for greatly improving the computational efficiency of simulated annealing as an optimization method for ground water management applications. The algorithm incorporates “directional search” and “memory” capabilities. Selecting search directions based on better understanding of the current neighborhood of the configuration space was shown to improve algorithm performance. Also, “memory” concepts derived from the Tabu Search Method show particular promise for improving the rate and quality of convergence. Performance of the enhanced annealing method was evaluated and the resultant management method was demonstrated using an example from the literature.