1949年以来中国环境与发展关系的演变

从IPAT方程出发,发现了环境影响随着经济发展或时间的演变依次遵循三个"倒U型"曲线规律,即环境影响强度的倒U型曲线、人均环境影响的倒U型曲线和环境影响总量的倒U型曲线。根据此规律,可以将该演化过程划分为四个阶段即:环境影响强度高峰前阶段、环境影响强度高峰到人均环境影响量高峰阶段、人均环境影响量高峰到环境影响总量高峰阶段以及环境影响总量稳定下降阶段。在环境演变的不同阶段,主要驱动力存在着明显的差异。在环境影响强度高峰前阶段,资源消耗或污染物排放增长更多地由资源或污染密集型技术进步驱动;在资源消耗或污染物强度高峰到人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰阶段,主要由经济增长驱动;而在人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰到资源消耗或污染物排放总量高峰阶段以及总量高峰以后的发展阶段,则主要由节约高效技术或污染减排技术进步来驱动。实证分析表明,中国目前环境与发展关系基本上处于经济增长主要驱动的环境影响强度高峰向人均环境影响高峰过渡阶段,这同时意味着中国要在短期内实现人均环境影响和环境影响总量高峰的跨越是异常困难的。     

常熟市耕地资源时空演变特征

基于卫星遥感影像数据,GIS空间分析技术和统计分析方法相结合,利用耕地面积缩减强度指数、空间叠加等方法分析了常熟市耕地资源的时空演变特征,揭示了苏南经济发达地区耕地资源减少的规律。研究发现,随着经济发展,常熟耕地资源逐渐减少,且因城区和工业用地扩张引起的耕地非农转化指向十分强烈,居民点空间的指向呈逐渐减弱的态势。从空间演变规律看,常熟耕地非农化主要表现在：1）经济增长越快,发展水平越高,耕地减少越快;2）在城市、港口区的镇耕地减少更快;3）港区和工业区的建设,使其周边耕地非农化速度加快;4）道路交通的扩张是耕地非农转化的一个稳定因素;5）不同时期,耕地非农占用的空间指向不同：从20世纪80年代被居民点用地占用逐渐变迁为2000年以后的被工业用地、城镇用地、港口用地占用为主。城市发展、港区建设、交通建设、农村居民点建设、工业化推进和经济发展是耕地资源缩减的主导影响因子.     

泰州市建设用地扩展规律与格局演化研究

以多时相Landsat、TM/ETM卫星影像为数据源,运用GIS软件提取泰州市建设用地1988～2008年5个时相的用地信息,运用扩展强度指数、扩展速度指数、空间自相关等方法分析泰州市建设用地扩展时空特征和演化规律。结果表明:(1)泰州建设用地扩展经历了缓慢扩展、中速扩展、缓慢扩展3个阶段,显示了建设用地逐步走向集约利用的趋势;(2)在分析泰州建设用地不同扩展阶段的基础上,发现泰州建设用地扩展模式正处于从点状扩展向点轴扩展转变阶段,并出现了网络化扩展的端倪;(3)运用空间自相关分析了泰州建设用地扩展热点演化过程,发现扩展热点呈现跳跃迁移的特征,热点区与冷点区出现交替演化,Moran散点图体现了泰州市建设用地扩展处于空间极化的状态,外围城镇受中心城镇增长极带动发展的扩展模式。     

改进的TLI指数法及其在巢湖营养状态评价中的应用

对巢湖2000—2008年的监测数据运用SPSS做统计分析,得出叶绿素a与总氮、总磷和透明度的相关系数。通过得出的权重结果,分析出与26个湖泊的差异性,构建了改进的综合营养状态指数(TLI)评价方法,并提出评价的4个步骤。以巢湖为例,运用该方法对湖泊的营养状态进行评价,且对巢湖的富营养化程度做了年际和年内变化的综合评价,评价结果显示各营养物指标的相关关系在近30年有了较大变化,巢湖的富营养化现象已日益严重,已从轻度富营养化状态转变为中度富营养化状态。     

水污染突发事件：演化模型与应急管理

概述了突发事件演化研究的现状,总结了现阶段中国水污染突发事件的典型案例,研究了事件的演化过程,提出把社会因素和全过程干预作为水污染突发事件演化动因的一个重要方面,并在此基础上分析了水污染突发事件演化的主要动力因素,运用灾害学、应急管理、环境科学等相关理论构建了事件演化的动力因素体系,最后从系统分析的角度构建了水污染突发事件演化模型。研究表明：社会因素和应急干预对水污染突发事件的演化具有推动作用;事件演化具有阶段性,不同阶段的动力因素存在差异;水污染突发事件应急管理具有多目标性,单一目标应急管理不能有效控制水污染突发事件演化。研究水污染突发事件演化机理可为政府有效地预警与事件初期的应急决策提供重要的理论依据。     

4种营养元素对水华鱼腥藻和四尾栅藻增殖的影响

以水华鱼腥藻和四尾栅藻分别作为蓝藻,绿藻代表藻种,采用均匀设计实验方法(uniform design experimentation,UDE)设计藻类AGP实验。采用通径分析法(Path Analysis,PA)对氮、磷、铁和锰在不同藻种增殖过程中的影响程度进行分析。结果表明,4种营养元素对水华鱼腥藻增殖影响的决策排序为FeTNTPMn,微量金属元素铁是影响水华鱼腥藻(蓝藻)增殖的主要因素;对四尾栅藻增殖影响的决策排序为TNTPFeMn,常量元素是影响四尾栅藻(绿藻)增殖的主要因素。联合通径分析法和逐步二次方回归分析法(QRA)建立的数学模型,可用于预判藻增殖。     

A Contemporary,Sex‐Limited Change in Body Size of an Estuarine Turtle in Response to Commercial Fishing

Abstract: Juvenile growth rate and adult body size are important components of life‐history strategies because of their direct impact on fitness. The diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) is a sexually dimorphic, long‐lived turtle inhabiting brackish waters throughout the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. In parts of its range, terrapins face anthropogenically imposed mortality: juveniles of both sexes inadvertently enter commercial crab traps and drown. For adult females, the carapace eventually grows large enough that they cannot enter traps, whereas males almost never reach that critical size. We compared age structure, carapace dimensions, growth curves, and indices of sexual dimorphism for a Chesapeake Bay population of terrapins (where mortality of turtles is high due to crab traps) with contemporary terrapins from Long Island Sound and museum specimens from Chesapeake Bay (neither group subject to commercial crab traps). We also calculated the allochronic and synchronic rates of evolutionary change (haldanes) for males and females to measure the rate of trait change in a population or between populations, respectively. We found a dramatic shift to a younger male age structure, a decrease in the length of time to terminal female carapace size, a 15% increase in female carapace width, and an increase in sexual dimorphism in Chesapeake Bay. In a new twist, our results implicate a fishery in the selective increase in size of a reptilian bycatch species. These sex‐specific changes in life history and demography have implications for population viability that need to be considered when addressing conservation of this threatened turtle.     

Nutritionally relevant elements in staple foods: influence of arable site versus choice of variety

Eighteen representative sites for the Austrian grain-growing and eight for the potato-growing zones (soils and crops) were investigated. On each site, total element contents (B, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, P, Sr and Zn) were determined in 4–12 varieties of winter wheat (n = 136), 6 varieties of spring durum wheat (n = 30), 5 varieties of winter durum wheat (n = 15), 7 varieties of rye (n = 49), 5 varieties of spring barley (n = 30) and 5 varieties of potatoes (n = 40). Element accumulations in grain species and potato tubers varied significantly with site conditions, with the main exceptions for B in potatoes and wheat as well as for Zn, Cu and Co in durum wheat. On average, across all investigated sites, differences in varieties occurred concerning the elements Ca, Cd, Ba, Sr and Zn (except Zn in potatoes and winter durum). A rough estimation revealed that an average Austrian consumer of wheat, rye and potatoes meets more than 50% of the needs of daily element intake for K, P and Mg, between 36 and 72% for Fe, Zn and Cu, and more than 100% for Co, Mo and Mn. In particular, the elements Ca and Na have to be added from other sources.     

Water Governance and Water Use Efficiency: The Five Principles of WUA Management and Performance in China1

Wang, Jinxia, Jikun Huang, Lijuan Zhang, Qiuqiong Huang, and Scott Rozelle, 2010. Water Governance and Water Use Efficiency: The Five Principles of WUA Management and Performance in China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 665-685. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00439.x Abstract: In recent years China has attempted to reform water management by decentralizing water management responsibilities. The overall goal of our paper is to better understand the emergence of water user associations (WUAs) in China and assess if they are adhering to the practices spelled out by the Five Principles, a set of recommended practices that are supposed to lead to successful WUA operation. Using four sets of different types of villages to examine implementation and performance, we find that World Bank-supported WUA villages (“Bank villages”) can be thought of as operating mostly according to the Five Principles. For example, the Bank villages were endowed with a more reliable water supply; were set up and were operating with a relatively high degree of farmer participation; and leaders were more consultative and the process more formal. When WUAs are run according to the Five Principals, we show that WUAs increase water use efficiency. The study also provides evidence that there is a perception in the Bank villages that water management is improving in general and that there is less conflict both within the village and among villages. Perhaps more importantly, we find that the Bank’s effort to promote WUAs extended beyond their own project villages. The openness, consultative nature, and transparency found in the Bank WUAs are also found (albeit at a somewhat lower level) in the non-Bank WUA villages.     

THE RHIZOSPHERE ECOLOGY OF SUBMERSED MACROPHYTES1

ABSTRACT: This article, based on a review of the literature, examines several aspects of the rhizosphere ecology of submersed macrophytes. These include the role of the rhizosphere microflora in affecting plant growth through influences on nutrient availability and production of plant growth regulating compounds. Interactions between components of the sediment microflora and plant roots are considered in relation to plant nitrition and growth. Possible applications of this information to the management of submersed macrophytes are considered.