基于GIS环境管理平台聚类分析的实现

高效数字化管理技术是我国环境管理工作的关键和必然趋势。地理信息系统和多元统计方法虽然在环境管理中已经得到一定程度的应用,但这两种高效工具几乎处于"脱节"状态;文章在GIS平台上有效地集成了系统聚类分析方法,有利于区域环境质量管理对空间海量数据的分析,文章重点介绍了系统聚类谱系图的生成算法与绘制中的难点,并用实例验证了该算法的可靠性和实用性。     

对改进我国生产安全事故统计工作的思考

做好生产安全事故统计工作,是国家制定相应的安全生产法规、政策和科学发展规划的重要依据,也是指导和加强安全生产管理、监督和监察工作的基础。本文简要回顾了我国生产安全事故统计工作发展情况;指出了当前事故统计工作中存在的问题;针对这些问题,作者就改进我国生产安全事故统计工作、进一步完善生产安全事故统计指标体系以及如何向国际劳工组织提供我国职业伤害统计数据等提出了自己的建议。     

物流量统计量纲研究

物流量量纲的统一标准化是物流量研究的基础,影响到物流规划实施的准确性.针对目前物流量统计量纲没有统一标准的问题,提出了物流标准当量这一物流量单位,统一了物流量统计口径,丰富了物流研究的相关于物流量的统计理论,使不同物流实现可加性,并可与市场容量挂钩,为更科学分析、研究和规划物流业打下基础.     

A Multi‐Agency Nutrient Dataset Used to Estimate Loads,Improve Monitoring Design,and Calibrate Regional Nutrient SPARROW Models1

Saad, David A., Gregory E. Schwarz, Dale M. Robertson, and Nathaniel L. Booth, 2011. A Multi‐Agency Nutrient Dataset Used to Estimate Loads, Improve Monitoring Design, and Calibrate Regional Nutrient SPARROW Models. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):933‐949. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688. 2011.00575.x Abstract: Stream‐loading information was compiled from federal, state, and local agencies, and selected universities as part of an effort to develop regional SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout much of the United States. After screening, 2,739 sites, sampled by 73 agencies, were identified as having suitable data for calculating long‐term mean annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These sites had a wide range in nutrient concentrations, loads, and yields, and environmental characteristics in their basins. An analysis of the accuracy in load estimates relative to site attributes indicated that accuracy in loads improve with increases in the number of observations, the proportion of uncensored data, and the variability in flow on observation days, whereas accuracy declines with increases in the root mean square error of the water‐quality model, the flow‐bias ratio, the number of days between samples, the variability in daily streamflow for the prediction period, and if the load estimate has been detrended. Based on compiled data, all areas of the country had recent declines in the number of sites with sufficient water‐quality data to compute accurate annual loads and support regional modeling analyses. These declines were caused by decreases in the number of sites being sampled and data not being entered in readily accessible databases.     

Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S.1

Villarini, Gabriele, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Witold F. Krajewski, 2011. Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):447‐463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00540.x Abstract: Annual maximum peak discharge time series from 196 stream gage stations with a record of at least 75 years from the Midwest United States is examined to study flood peak distributions from a regional point of view. The focus of this study is to evaluate: (1) “mixtures” of flood peak distributions, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions, and (3) presence of temporal nonstationarities in the flood peak records. Warm season convective systems are responsible for some of the largest floods in the area, in particular in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Spring events associated with snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow are common in the northern part of the study domain. Nonparametric tests are used to investigate the presence of abrupt and slowly varying changes. Change‐points rather than monotonic trends are responsible for most violations of the stationarity assumption. The abrupt changes in flood peaks can be associated with anthropogenic changes, such as changes in land use/land cover, agricultural practice, and construction of dams. The trend analyses do not suggest an increase in the flood peak distribution due to anthropogenic climate change. Examination of the upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions are examined by means of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution.     

雨凇环境影响因子研究与应用——以湖南省为例

运用概率论和数理统计方法,基于湖南气象观测资料、NCEP资料及地理信息资料,分析了气象因子、地理因子对雨凇天气形成的影响,揭示了各影响因子的临界影响点。进而分析了主要影响因子位于不同影响点时其它因子对雨淞天气形成的作用,在此基础上,研制了基于气象要素因子、地理因子的雨凇日数学模型。选取平均连续雨凇日数、年平均雨凇日数、雨凇最长持续时间等3项与雨凇日数有关的气候指标对模型模拟结果进行了检验,结果表明模型模拟结果与实际观测结果相关性高,均值差异小。雨凇日模型已被用于精细化的雨凇气候区划。     

面向设计的地铁车站防火安全韧性评价*

为提升地铁车站防火安全韧性,以设计方案为切入视角,基于防火安全韧性的吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应能力4个维度,构建基于ANP-熵权法面向设计的地铁防火安全韧性评价指标体系,运用逼近理想解法建立地铁车站防火安全韧性设计评价模型,通过3个已建地铁车站（青岛、沈阳、福州某地铁车站）的设计案例验证该模型的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明:3个应用案例中,沈阳某地铁车站设计防火安全韧性最高,福州某地铁车站设计防火安全韧性最低,需进一步提升防火安全能力。评价结果与各案例的实际运行阶段基本吻合,研究思路和结果对改善地铁车站的防火安全设计具有一定参考意义。     

填埋场产气规律的模型预测

垃圾填埋产气率预测对于评估填埋场能源气体产生潜力,确定填埋气体利用方式极为关键. 通过对南京水阁垃圾填埋场的现场取样、抽气试验及工程运行等数据的分析,讨论了对于填埋气体产生的两步一级反应耦合模型的求解方法;建立了基于有机物分解数据和现场抽气试验数据的2类求解途径,并对各自的适用范围进行了分析;给出了最大产气率、最大产气率发生时间和最大产气率发生时已产气量的解析解,其中最大产气率与反应速率常数(K)和总产气量(L0)有关,最大产气率发生时间仅与K有关,而最大产气率发生时的已产气量占总产气量的比率为常数,与反应介质、反应条件等均无关. 结果表明,填埋气体两步一级反应耦合模型的预测结果与实测结果较吻合.      

基于稳健统计的土壤环境背景值研究及应用

使用稳健统计方法中的位置估计量和尺度估计量对我国某受到人为干扰的地下水水源地C层土壤重金属的背景值进行了研究.结果表明,稳健统计方法对样本中的异常值有较高的耐抗性,计算结果与常规方法相近,因而适用于某些人为干扰地区的土壤环境背景值研究.对该水源地背景值的计算表明,该地区C层土壤Cu,Pb,Cd,Cr,As和Hg的背景值中心分别为21.2,32.5,0.103,60.3,11.0和0.012 mg/kg,其中w(Pb),w(Cd)和w(As)高于山东省平均值. 6种重金属的阈值分别为29.0,43.7,0.143,93.5,21.0和0.080 mg/kg,均小于全国平均上限值,但其中Pb,Cr,As的阈值高于土壤环境质量一级标准. 基于该地区背景值的污染累积指数评价表明,该地区主要重金属污染物为Pb和Hg,主要污染区为污水沟渠周边,污染深度为1～3 m.      

安全生产与经济秩序

从安全生产与经济秩序的关系分析安全生产的各种现象、危害及其原因 ,提出了实现安全生产 ,规范市场经济秩序的对策。将安全生产纳入市场经济秩序 ,建立完善市场准入条件和事故淘汰否决制及从经济角度增强企业安全生产内动力、加大对责任事故中的腐败行为和破坏经济秩序的查处力度等方面 ,对我国建立和完善社会主义市场经济秩序过程中加强安全生产进行了探索。