和谐社会统计监测问题的探讨

社会主义和谐社会的内涵和基本特征体现为充分的民主、健全的法制、严正的公平、激情的正义、全社会的诚信、新型的人际关系、繁荣的文化、蓬勃的科技、健全的社会保薄体系、稳定的社会环境、循环的经济、高质量的居民生活。可归纳为经济、政治、文化、社会、生态五个方面。为此。提出由4个层次40个指标构成的统计监测指标体系。并提出采用量化值加权函数法进行综合评价。期望为社会主义和谐社会构建进程的监测提供合理的技术和方法。     

RISK OF EXTREME EVENTS IN A MULTIOBJECTIVE FRAMEWORK1

ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes advances made in risk-based decisionmaking in water resources through use of the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM). (Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects.) In the PMRM, the risk of extreme events is differentiated from risk involving less extreme damage severity and is evaluated within a multiobjective framework. Study of the extreme-event risk function f₄(*) has addressed the following issues: methods for calculating f₄(*); the sensitivity of f₄(*) to various parameters, particularly to the partitioning point of the extreme-event range and the selection of probability density functions; insight provided by the statistics of extremes; and the impact of f₄(*) on risk management, for example, in the application of the PMRM to water resources problems. In particular, this paper shares with the reader recent research results on the PMRM, the relationship between the statistics of extremes and the conditional expected value, derived formulas for f₄(*), distribution-free estimates of f₄(*), documented case studies in dam safety, and future research directions.     

ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.     

Best linear unbiased estimators for the simple linear regression model using ranked set sampling

When sample observations are expensive or difficult to obtain, ranked set sampling is known to be an efficient method for estimating the population mean, and in particular to improve on the sample mean estimator. Using best linear unbiased estimators, this paper considers the simple linear regression model with replicated observations. Use of a form of ranked set sampling is shown to be markedly more efficient for normal data when compared with the traditional simple linear regression estimators.     

由我院学生图书借阅行为分析看图书馆工作的改进

图书馆的读者借阅情况可反应出学生的学风及图书馆文献资源的适用情况,因此对流通记录的统计工作是图书馆的一项重要工作.通过对我馆图书馆管理系统软件后台数据的进一步分析,得出了读者到馆人次、人数及借阅图书类别等项目的统计数据,了解我院学生的图书借阅行为的概况,并进而分析图书馆在文献资源建设及图书馆服务方面存在的问题及并提出相应的解决方案.     

基于高阶递归神经网络的AUV鲁棒控制方法

目的 提出一种基于高阶递归神经网络的AUV鲁棒控制方法。方法 利用结构简单但逼近效果优越的高阶递归神经网络,对建模不确定性和外部未知干扰进行估计,并将其补偿到输入控制律中,以提高控制性能。之后,基于HJI理论和Lyapunov稳定性分析导出神经网络权重自适应更新律和AUV自适应控制律,设计反步滑模方法作为对比方法,并进行仿真实验。结果 设计的基于高阶递归神经网络的AUV鲁棒控制方法的跟踪误差、调节时间等控制指标均优于反步滑模方法。设计的鲁棒控制方法可以控制AUV精确跟踪目标轨迹,同时具有优秀的控制性能和鲁棒性。结论 这一研究为AUV轨迹跟踪控制领域提供了一种高效且有效的方法,有望在复杂、不确定的水下环境中得到应用。     

3种基质对污水中总磷的吸附性能

以粒径为2~5 mm的无烟煤、活性炭和草炭3种基质为实验材料进行吸附等温线和吸附动力学实验,探讨和对比3种基质对污水中总磷的吸附性能,选用吸附效果最好的无烟煤作为玻璃柱的填料模拟土壤渗滤系统。结果表明,3种填料基质对总磷的吸附均符合Freundlich和Langmuir吸附等温线方程,通过拟合方程得出无烟煤、活性炭和草炭的最大静态吸附量分别为1.249、0.254和0.716 mg/g;用一级动力学方程拟合3种填料基质对总磷的吸附反应过程较好,相关系数都在0.900以上,无烟煤、活性炭和草炭吸附速率分别为0.025、0.023和0.014 mg/(g·h),其中经无烟煤处理过的污水,出水最清澈;在模拟土壤渗滤系统实验中,当进水浓度为3.43~8.43 mg/L,水力负荷为0.08 m3/(m2·d)时,出水中总磷平均浓度为0.08 mg/L,满足《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》中的一级A标准,对总磷的去除率高达96.48%~99.19%。     

Isomeric analysis of PCDD/PCDF in waste incinerator fly ash by GC-MS/MS

The development of an analytical method for the analysis of PCDD/PCDF in flyash using a bench analytical system comprising of a gas chromatograph fitted with an ion trap detector operated in the tandem MS mode is described. The optimum settings for the most important MS/MS parameters are given, including those for the less reported mono- to tri-chlorinated dioxin and furan congener groups. Flyash samples from three waste incineration plants representing a decommissioned 1970s plant design, an upgraded and still operating plant originally designed in the 1970s, and a modern 1990s design operating plant have been analysed for PCDD/PCDF. The flyash samples were analysed for PCDD/PCDF using the methods developed and the total PCDD/PCDF, I-TEQ values and isomeric profiles are reported. The flyash from the older decommissioned incinerator had very significantly higher concentrations of PCDD/PCDF compared to the modern incinerator flyash.     

污染减排全口径核算中有关统计问题的研究

随着污染减排工作的持续推进,经济和环境容量问题的行业基础统计数据变的越来越重要.以“十二五”污染减排核算细则中纺织业、污水处理厂全口径核算为依据,以泉州石狮市纺织业产品产量、废水排放量、区域GDP数据为基础,分析纺织业产品产量与污染物排放量之间的关系,从国家政策、各级行政统计部门、环保统计部门和企业四个不同的角度提出在统计行业产业基础数据时应注意的事项,为污染减排、环境统计和经济协调发展提供指导依据.