2008年9—10月国内环境事件

简要统计了2008年9-10月国内发生的各种环境事件75起,包括沙尘天气2起,污染事件25起,地震15起,山体滑坡和泥石流16起,旱灾3起以及其他自然灾害14起.     

2006年9-10月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年9-10月国内发生的各种环境事件103起,包括污染事件29起,地震12起,山体滑坡和泥石流20起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害37起.文中对污染事件和自然灾害进行了讨论.     

城市污水测算统计方法

当今城市生活污水统计以人口与供水量为依据测算 ,难以满足治理和管理工作需要。在城市污水处理场和污水在线监控系统建设快速发展条件下建立以排污口监测统计为基础的城市污水统计系统 ,能够较真实反映生活污水质量和分布 ,满足环境管理工作需要。     

RISK OF EXTREME EVENTS IN A MULTIOBJECTIVE FRAMEWORK1

ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes advances made in risk-based decisionmaking in water resources through use of the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM). (Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects.) In the PMRM, the risk of extreme events is differentiated from risk involving less extreme damage severity and is evaluated within a multiobjective framework. Study of the extreme-event risk function f₄(*) has addressed the following issues: methods for calculating f₄(*); the sensitivity of f₄(*) to various parameters, particularly to the partitioning point of the extreme-event range and the selection of probability density functions; insight provided by the statistics of extremes; and the impact of f₄(*) on risk management, for example, in the application of the PMRM to water resources problems. In particular, this paper shares with the reader recent research results on the PMRM, the relationship between the statistics of extremes and the conditional expected value, derived formulas for f₄(*), distribution-free estimates of f₄(*), documented case studies in dam safety, and future research directions.     

ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.     

共沉淀—原子吸收法分析铁强化盐中的铁

本文采用原子吸收分光光度法,测定铁强化盐中微量铁。用数理统计方法检证了方法的可靠性。     

统计学在垃圾焚烧飞灰浸提液重金属检测准确性研究中的应用

为提高复杂基体重金属检测准确性,在使用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法检测生活垃圾焚烧飞灰浸提液时,进行标准曲线法、标准加入法和内标法3种定量校准方法比对。3种方法报出结果经过加标回收率换算后的样品原值具有明显一致性,使用统计学方差齐性和单因素方差分析验证了该一致性成立,表明内标法的精密度和准确度与标准曲线法、标准加入法无显著性差别。以3种方法样品原值的算数平均值作为样品最佳估计值评价各方法实际报出结果准确性,标准加入法准确性最好;稀释后的样品内标法加标回收率明显优于标准规定,受稀释倍数影响不大,工作效率高,满足HJ 781—2016质控要求,建议可作为该标准的补充;建议批量样品检测时优先采用内标法。3种方法样品原值一致性的验证,有助于执法、科研中对于复杂基体重金属物质含量的准确判断。     

中国建筑火灾引起坍塌事故的统计与分析

为了研究火灾引起的建筑结构坍塌的机理,便于已有建筑的抗火防护和新建建筑的抗火设计,通过查询文献资料和新闻媒体报道,对我国建筑火灾坍塌事例进行了调查,对火灾坍塌建筑物的结构形式、层数和使用功能等方面进行了统计分析,列出了部分我国火灾史上1960-2005年所发生的火灾坍塌事例.调查结果显示,钢结构、特别是工业厂房钢屋架在火灾下较其他形式的建筑易发生坍塌;4～8层的民用建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;工业厂房,仓库和商业建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;民用建筑多发生局部坍塌;发生坍塌的建筑一般存在设计和施工不规范以及防火设施不合格等情况.     

NONPARAMETRIC TEST PERFORMANCE FOR TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY WITH SAMPLING DESIGN APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: In this paper four nonparametric tests for monotonic trend detection are compared with respect to their power and accuracy. The importance of comparing powers at equal empirical significance levels rather than nominal levels is stressed. Therefore, an appropriate graphical method is presented. The effect of the sampling frequency is also assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and a trajectory representation that visualizes the dynamics of the trade-off between the type I and type II errors. These methods are applied to compare four nonparametrical tests (seasonal Mann. Kendall, modified seasonal Mann-Kendall, covariance eigenvalue and covariance inversion) under several conditions. It is concluded with respect to the power that it is not worthwhile for the modified seasonal Mann-Kendall test applied to the AR(1) process considered in this paper to increase the sampling frequency from monthly to biweekly for detecting a monotonic trend of 5 percent, 10 percent, or 15 percent of the process variance. Under these conditions the seasonal Mann-Kendall test is highly liberal, while the covariance inversion and the covariance eigenvalue test are conservative. This research is situated in the development of an efficient sampling design for the Flemish water quality monitoring network.     

Detection and delineation of critical areas using echelons and spatial scan statistics with synoptic cellular data

Geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation has become an important area of investigation both in geospatial ecosystem health and in geospatial public health. In order to find critical areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial ecosystem health investigations apply recently discovered echelon tools. In order to find elevated rate areas based on synoptic cellular data, geospatial public health investigations apply recently discovered spatial scan statistic tools. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize a joint role for these together in the spirit of a cross-disciplinary cross-fertilization to accomplish more effective and efficient geographical surveillance for hotspot detection and delineation, and early warning system.