菜用大豆和豌豆中腈菌唑残留动态研究

采用气相色谱法及田间试验方法研究菜用大豆、豌豆中残留腈菌唑的消解动态,并进行腈菌唑安全使用技术示范试验.结果表明,菜用大豆、豌豆中残留腈菌唑的消解动态均符合一级动力学方程,原始沉积量与施用量、施药次数密切相关.早季菜用大豆中腈菌唑的消解系数︱k︱=0 216 5±0 000 2,半衰期DT50为3 2 d,消解99%所需时间T99为21 2～21 3 d; 晚季中︱k︱=0 200 85±0 008 85,DT50为3 3～3 6 d,T99为22 0～24 0 d.豌豆中腈菌唑的消解系数︱k︱=0 195 35±0 000 75,DT50为3 5～3 6 d,T99为23 5～23 7 d.研究表明,对菜用大豆施药1次或间隔7 d连续施药2次,末次施药25 d后样品中腈菌唑最高残留量为0 013 mg/kg; 对豌豆施药1次或间隔7 d连续施药2次,末次施药20 d后样品中腈菌唑最高残留量为0 015 mg/kg,低于日本、美国及欧盟规定的MRL标准.     

Experience in establishing a natural standard for analyzing the dynamics of taiga ecosystems

Experience in organizing a natural reference area (standard) for studies on the functional dynamics of ecosystems in connection with paludification and forest-bog relationships is described. The essence of studies on ecosystem dynamics with the aid of natural standards and key plots is described using an example of the Yenisei region of Western Siberia. Arguments are presented for the necessity of using a differential approach to studies on the dynamics of nature and taking into account local ecological conditions while extrapolating the results of these studies to other geographic regions.     

Specific features of the oribatid fauna in high-mountain pine forests of the Eastern Caucasus in relation to altitudinal zonality

The abundance, structure, and distribution of oribatid communities in high-mountain pine forest biotopes of the Eastern Caucasus are described in dependence on elevation above sea level. The oribatid fauna of high-mountain pine forests proved to be characterized by high abundance, an assortment of dominants, and species richness. It was shown that, as the elevation increases, specific dominants typical of particular altitudinal zones appear in communities, and changes in the mass species occur. These species are stable in terms of their long-term dynamics, and zonal groups (communities) demonstrate a high species diversity.     

区域社会经济发展与生态环境耦合关系研究模型的比较分析

社会经济发展与环境资源相协调是可持续发展的重要途径,判断当前区域社会经济发展与生态环境间的耦合关系是建立有效协调机制的关键。本文从发展、机理方法和应用实例等方面系统介绍了目前在社会经济发展与生态环境之间耦合关系研究中主要的3类模型:计量经济学模型(环境库兹涅茨曲线)、耦合度定量判断模型(包括灰色关联度分析和数理模型)和系统动力学模型。通过3类模型机理和应用情况的对照分析,总结各自优劣势,并认为具有多情景分析和多方案执行评估能力的神经网络模型将成为未来发展趋势。     

Avoiding the presumptive policy errors of intergovernmental environmental planning programmes: a case analysis of urban stormwater management planning

This social research aims to identify and examine the implementation presumptions of intergovernmental environmental planning programmes and how to improve their effectiveness in future practice. It contrasts and explains the organisational dynamics and implementation responses of municipalities that succeeded and failed in realising the objective of such a programme. The research involved a qualitative multiple-case comparison between four high- and four low-performing municipalities implementing a stormwater programme within metropolitan Sydney, Australia. These two organisational types substantially differed in corporate expertise, environmental leadership, extended relational activity, and overall disposition to learning and ownership of local environmental issues. The paper identified five presumptions underpinning the programme design which privileged the high-performing organisations, but did little to garner commitment and develop capacity among the low-performing group. These implementation insights not only provide guideposts for intergovernmental programme design, but also reveal how policy design can undermine policy intent if empathy to local organisational dynamics is lacking.     

长江上游生态建设工程与植被覆盖时空变化的响应特征研究

"退耕还林"、"天然林保护"等重大生态建设工程在长江上游实施已有十余年,剖析重大生态建设工程实施以来长江上游植被覆盖时空变化特征与生态建设投入间的响应关系,对区内未来生态建设的布局具有重要指导意义。以年际时间序列的SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI遥感数据为基础,利用遥感及地理信息系统技术,趋势拟合等方法,研究长江上游地区2002年至2013年植被覆盖时空动态变化特征。并以县级行政区为单元,分析长江上游植被覆盖时空变化与生态建设工程投入的响应关系。结果表明:研究区内植被指数NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)整体呈现缓慢增加趋势,年均增长率为1.06%,主要体现为中等植被覆盖向高植被覆盖转化;植被覆盖增加区域远远大于植被覆盖减少区域,其中增加的区域占整个长江上游流域的86.02%,主要分布于秦巴山地以北、云贵高原以及横断山区中小起伏的山地;植被覆盖减少区域占6.09%,主要分布于汶川地震灾区以及成都,重庆、昆明等大型城市群及其周边。其次,近10 a生态建设重大工程投资对长江上游植被覆盖增长起促进作用,在研究区内有261个县级行政区具有较好的造林效率,达县级行政区总数的90%,集中分布于云贵、川陕交界处及西部高山、高原区。     

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age‐structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories.     

Modelling the potential impacts of land use/cover change on terrestrial carbon stocks in north-west Morocco

Terrestrial ecosystems store more carbon (C) than the atmosphere and provide ecosystem services (ES) such as global climate regulation, by sequestering carbon within biomass and soil. Land use land cover (LULC) change is considered a key factor, playing an important role in the dynamic variations of carbon storage. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects that LULC has had on carbon stocks and consequently on climate change regulation in north-western Morocco over 21 years. To achieve this aim, the Integrated Valuation of ES and Trade-offs (InVEST) model is used to assess status and variation in the net amount of carbon stored by the different types of LULC, and the economic value of the carbon sequestered in the remaining stock. The results show that the total carbon stock increased from 4.81TgC in 1996 to 4.98TgC in 2017. Over the 21 years, the LULC changes had the greatest effect on carbon storage - an increase of 6.87% with 0.17TgC of carbon sequestered, since the majority of unused land was changed to forest and cultivated land. Based on the global costs of atmospheric carbon, we estimate the economic value of carbon storage services to be between US$1,800,000 and US$3,570,000 for the whole period, with an average yearly increment of between US$86,000 and US$170,000. The results show that the ecosystem management has had a substantial climate mitigation effect. Also, the possibility of paying for ES could inform policy on the adoption of LULC to support livelihood and management choices.     

基于系统动力学的海洋平台安全脆弱性分析

海洋平台承受着风、浪、流等复杂环境载荷，安全系统在保障平台安全稳定方面的作用极为突出。为深入探讨影响海洋平台安全脆弱性的机理，针对海洋平台作业环境的极端性和复杂性，建立了海洋平台的安全脆弱性系统动力学分析模型，采用模糊层次分析法确定影响安全系统中各层因素的权重系数，并设定参数，考虑子系统不同的安全投入方案，进行了海洋平台脆弱性系统分析。研究结果表明:海洋平台设备系统对于暴露度和敏感度的影响程度最高，管理系统对海洋平台安全系统的适应度起主导作用；当安全投入总值一定，对各系统的投入比例不同时，为有效降低海洋平台脆弱性，应合理分配有限投入资金。     

Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs

At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a conceptual model for assigning biodiversity indicators to appropriate functions based on a common approach used in economics. Using the model, indicators can be classified as leading (indicators that change before the subject of interest, informing preventative actions), coincident (indicators that measure the subject of interest), or lagging (indicators that change after the subject of interest has changed and thus can be used to evaluate past actions). We classified indicators based on ecological theory on biodiversity response times and management objectives in 2 case studies: global species extinction and marine ecosystem collapse. For global species extinctions, indicators of abundance (e.g., the Living Planet Index or biodiversity intactness index) were most likely to respond first, as leading indicators that inform preventative action, while extinction indicators were expected to respond slowly, acting as lagging indicators flagging the need for evaluation. For marine ecosystem collapse, indicators of direct responses to fishing were expected to be leading, while those measuring ecosystem collapse could be lagging. Classification defines an active role for indicators within the policy cycle, creates an explicit link to preventative decision-making, and supports preventative action.