系统科学视角下的城市污水可持续管理研究

立足于城市污水可持续管理思想,利用系统科学方法,理清、分析对城市污水可持续管理的影响因素。以南京市为例,给出了不同政策组合下的城市污水管理的动态结果,并对结果进行了讨论。结果表明,要实现城市污水管理的可持续发展,必须在源头上通过政策设计（如收费）促进污水排放者参加到城市污水管理系统中,注重提高资源化和无害化能力的同时,要加强源头减量的力度。     

Paying the Extinction Debt in Southern Wisconsin Forest Understories

Abstract: The lack of long‐term baseline data restricts the ability to measure changes in biological diversity directly and to determine its cause. This hampers conservation efforts and limits testing of basic tenets of ecology and conservation biology. We used a historical baseline survey to track shifts in the abundance and distribution of 296 native understory species across 82 sites over 55 years in the fragmented forests of southern Wisconsin. We resurveyed stands first surveyed in the early 1950s to evaluate the influence of patch size and surrounding land cover on shifts in native plant richness and heterogeneity and to evaluate changes in the relative importance of local site conditions versus the surrounding landscape context as drivers of community composition and structure. Larger forests and those with more surrounding forest cover lost fewer species, were more likely to recruit new species, and had lower rates of homogenization than smaller forests in more fragmented landscapes. Nearby urbanization further reduced both alpha and beta understory diversity. Similarly, understory composition depended strongly on local site conditions in the original survey but only weakly reflected the surrounding landscape composition. By 2005, however, the relative importance of these factors had reversed such that the surrounding landscape structure is now a much better predictor of understory composition than are local site conditions. Collectively, these results strongly support the idea that larger intact habitat patches and landscapes better sustain native species diversity and demonstrate that humans play an increasingly important role in driving patterns of native species diversity and community composition.     

Using qualitative models to define sustainable management for the commons in data poor conditions

Nearly 50 years after Hardin’s “tragedy of the commons” we have not yet found predictive tools to guide us towards sustainable management of common-pool resources (CPR). We often have a good understanding of the qualitative relationships between the principal actors in socioecological systems (SESs), but classical quantitative approaches require a tremendous amount of data to understand the drivers of SESs sustainability. Here we show that qualitative modelling approaches can provide important governance insights for SESs that are understood but not quantified.We used Loop Analysis to test the outcomes of different management regimes on a simple nature-based tourism SES described by economic, social and environmental variables. We tested the sustainability of different management scenarios on this system and we identified the necessary conditions to achieve it.We found that management regimes where property rights and responsibilities are shared between different stakeholders are more likely to be successful. However, the system is generally highly unstable and it is important to tune each strategy to each particular situation.The conditions for sustainability found across the different systems tested were: a low reinvestment rate of tourist revenues into new infrastructures and a low growth rate of the environment. Management strategies based on maximum sustainable yield, which keep the environment far from its carrying capacity, have less chance to be sustainable.Qualitative models of SESs are powerful diagnostic tools; they can help identifying variables that play an important role in determining socioecological sustainability in data-poor circumstances and guide the design of efficient data collection programmes. Our results highlight the importance of careful planning when designing management strategies for nature-based tourism. The application of one-size-fits-all solutions to every situation is likely to lead to the failure of the commons; however tourism-based SESs can be sustainable if management strategies are tuned to each particular case.     

A survival-analysis-based simulation model for Russian wheat aphid population dynamics

A simulation model for Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), populations is built by integrating survival-analysis-based development and survivor functions and the same-shape reproduction distribution model in the framework of Leslie [Leslie, P.H., 1945. On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33, 183–212] matrix structure. Survival analysis is utilized to model both the development and survival of RWA populations, and the Cox (1972) proportional hazards model is fitted with the data sets from our laboratory observation of 1800 RWA individuals under 25 factorial combinations of five temperature regimes and five barley plant-growth stages. Rather than using simple age-specific survivor rates as in the traditional Leslie matrix, the survivor functions based on survival analysis describe age-specific, temperature and plant stage-dependent RWA survival probabilities. Similarly, a probability model from survival analysis to estimate the probability that an individual will reach mature adult stage is utilized to describe the development process; this makes the transition from nymphal stage to mature adult stage dependent on RWA age as well as temperature and plant-growth stage.Inspired by the same-shape distribution and rate-summation approach for modeling insect development, a similar approach for modeling insect reproduction under variable temperature is developed. This new same-shape reproduction distribution model incorporates individual variation in reproduction capability, as well as the effects of RWA age, temperature and plant-growth stage. Consequently, the same-shape reproduction distribution model replaces the simple age-specific fecundities in Leslie matrix model. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to introduce survival analysis to simulation modeling in entomology and ecology and also the first to integrate our newly developed same-shape reproduction distribution model into application.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics at manakin leks: reconciling lek traditionality with male turnover

Leks, display grounds where males congregate and females visit to copulate, are typically traditional in location, despite often high turnover of individual males. How leks can persist in face of male turnover is not well understood, in part due to a lack of detailed field data allowing for a clear understanding of lek dynamics. We followed the fate of individual males at 11 to 15 leks of the blue-crowned manakin Lepidothrix coronata across four breeding seasons to gain insights on how leks are formed and changed in space and time. Between years, leks were traditional in location despite changes in territory ownership due to male disappearance and recruitment. New males were equally likely to recruit by taking over existing territories or by establishing new territories. Recruitment was influenced by age, as recruits were more likely to be adults than subadults. Lek size did not affect the probabilities of a male recruiting or persisting at a territory, and vocalization rate, a correlate of mating success in this population, did not affect male persistence. We used our field data to model changes in lek size and composition over longer periods of time (100 years) to understand how lek traditionality can be reconciled with high male turnover. Our simulations showed that leks in our population rapidly stabilize in size despite changes in territory ownership and that rates of male recruitment and disappearance compensate each other, such that leks have the potential to persist for several decades after the original males have disappeared from them.     

Experimental and molecular dynamic simulation study of perfluorooctane sulfonate adsorption on soil and sediment components

Soil and sediment play a crucial role in the fate and transport of perfluorooctane sulfonate(PFOS) in the environment. However, the molecular mechanisms of major soil/sediment components on PFOS adsorption remain unclear. This study experimentally isolated three major components in soil/sediment: humin/kerogen, humic/fulvic acid(HA/FA), and inorganic component after removing organics, and explored their contributions to PFOS adsorption using batch adsorption experiments and molecular dynamic simulations. The results suggest that the humin/kerogen component dominated the PFOS adsorption due to its aliphatic features where hydrophobic effect and phase transfer are the primary adsorption mechanism.Compared with the humin/kerogen, the HA/FA component contributed less to the PFOS adsorption because of its hydrophilic and polar characteristics. The electrostatic repulsion between the polar groups of HA/FA and PFOS anions was attributable to the reduced PFOS adsorption. When the soil organic matter was extracted, the inorganic component also plays a non-negligible role because PFOS molecules might form surface complexes on SiO 2surface.The findings obtained in this study illustrate the contribution of organic matters in soils and sediments to PFOS adsorption and provided new perspective to understanding the adsorption process of PFOS on micro-interface in the environment.     

组合措施下政府与企业排污行为演化博弈

为研究排污企业应对不同惩罚和补贴组合措施的行为策略，将演化博弈理论与系统动力学方法结合，构建基于政府与排污企业双方的演化博弈模型.以政府和排污企业双方利益为核心，对其在不同惩罚和补贴措施下的企业行为策略和演化稳定性进行分析.结果显示，在静态惩罚补贴措施下，政府和企业策略行为无法达到演化稳定点，政府静态政策不会对企业合法排污行为产生推动作用.在动态惩罚补贴措施下，动态惩罚和动态补贴措施对推动企业合法排污行为更为有效，政府可根据排污企业行为制定双边动态策略.     

Degradation kinetics of tebufenozide in model aquatic systems under controlled laboratory conditions

Abstract

The hydrolysis of the insecticide tebufenozide was studied in the dark at 20 to 40°C in buffered (pH 4 to 10) distilled water, and at 20°C in unbuffered, sterilized and unsterilized stream water. Tebufenozide was very stable in acidic and neutral buffers at 20°C and the corresponding pseudo‐first‐order rate constants (k_obsd) and half‐lives (T_1/2) were 5.946 × 10^‐4 and 13.10 × 10^‐4 d^‐1, and 1166 and 529 d, respectively. The hydrolytic degradation was dependent on pH and temperature. At pH 10 and at 20,30 and 40°C, the k_obsd (10^‐4 d^‐1) and T_1/2 (d) values were 34.22, 66.72 and 130.0; and 203, 104 and 53.3, respectively. The energy of activation (E_a) values for the hydrolysis of tebufenozide at pH 4, 7 and 10, calculated from the Arrhenius plots, were 83.50, 66.71 and 50.87 kJ/mol, respectively. Tebufenozide was stable in sterilized stream water in the dark (T_1/2 = 734 d) but it degraded fairly rapidly in unsterilized stream water (T_1/2 = 181 d). Sunlight photodegradation of the chemical was slower (T_1/2 = 83.0 h) than the photolysis by ultraviolet radiations (T_1/2 values at 254 and 365 nm were 9.92 and 27.6 h, respectively); nevertheless, it was still appreciable during the summer months at 46°31’ N latitude. The differences in degradation rates between the unsterilized and sterilized stream water and the degradation of the chemical in the sterile, distilled water in sunlight, suggests that microbial processes and photolysis are the two main degradative routes for tebufenozide in natural aquatic systems.     

Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents

Abstract: Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process‐based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species’ dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.     

Using environmental DNA to assess population‐wide spatiotemporal reserve use

Scientists increasingly rely on protected areas to assist in biodiversity conservation, yet the efficacy of these areas is rarely systematically assessed, often because of underfunding. Still, adaptive management strategies to maximize conservation success often rely on understanding the temporal and spatial dynamism of populations therein. Examination of environmental DNA (eDNA) is a time and cost‐effective way to monitor species’ distribution, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) provides information on organismal abundance. To date, however, such techniques remain underused for population assessments in protected areas. We determined eDNA concentration of the critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis) to describe its occurrence, range, and use of the Tian e‐Zhou National Nature Reserve in Hubei, China, across seasons and hydrological depths. Despite the observation that total eDNA concentrations were highest in surface waters in summer, finless porpoise eDNA concentrations were significantly higher in deeper waters than in surface waters in summer. During the breeding season (spring), eDNA signals were site specific and restricted to the core area of the reserve. However, postbreeding eDNA concentrations were widespread across the reserve, encompassing sites previously thought to be unfrequented by the species. Our results suggest spatiotemporal idiosyncrasies in site, depth, and seasonal use of the reserve and a propensity for postbreeding population dispersal. With eDNA and qPCR we were able to assess an entire population's use of a protected area. Illuminating nuances in habitat use via eDNA could be valuable to set pragmatic conservation goals for this, and other, species.