重大事故动力学演化

为进一步研究重大事故发生演化机理，在对典型重特大事故比较研究的基础上，应用系统动力学理论分析重大事故孕育、发生、发展和激变的动力学特征，认识重大事故行为过程及其主要影响因素，探讨重大事故闭环反馈系统的调控规律。作者建议应用系统动力学理论与方法建立决策实验室，以提高对重大事故风险控制水平。     

INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND WITH WATER REUSE1

ABSTRACT: This work establishes an industrial water demand (IWD) model for a short term estimate, which considers water reuse technologies and discharge regulations, for the integrated circuit (IC) industry in northern Taiwan. Based on the optimization of an industrial water cost system, a computerized system dynamics model (SD model) is developed to generate individual firm IWD using data from year 2000. A market IWD is further constructed for 25 1C firms in the study area and is approximated by an inverse logistic curve. Analytical results demonstrate that price elasticity varies with water price in cases involving water reuse.     

Applying the discrete vortex method in environmental fluid mechanics: A study of the time-averaged near wake behind a circular cylinder

This work illustrates the discrete vortex method (DVM) as a tool for simulating environmental fluid mechanics problems involving transport in the wake of a bluff body. The DVM was used to model both the long-time-averaged and instantaneous features of flow past a circular cylinder. Simulations were performed for Re = 140, 000. Verification testing was accomplished by refining time-step and vortex element circulation. The DVM was validated through comparison with experimental data from Cantwell and Coles. Verification testing demonstrated that, while global convergence is not possible for an unsteady flow simulation, it is possible to have convergence to physical results. This verification entails identifying a range of parameters in which a flow containing coherent structures and matching physical conditions is attainable. Validation tests demonstrated excellent agreement between experimental and simulated results for time-averaged velocity and shear stress profiles, as well as Strouhal number.     

Using system dynamics to model water-reallocation

Improving the efficiency of water allocation has long been recognised as a key problem for the water resources management decision-makers. However, assessing the efficacy of management decision is difficult due to the complexity and interconnectivity of water resource systems. For this reason, it is vital that robust modelling approaches are employed to deal with the feedback loops inherent in the water resource systems. Whilst many studies have applied modelling to various aspects of water resource management, little attention has been given to innovations in modelling approaches to deal with the modelling challenges associated with improving decision-making. The aim of this study is to apply a System Dynamics modelling approach to improve the efficiency of water allocation incorporating a myriad of irrigation system constraints. The system dynamic approach allows the different system components to be organised as a collection of discrete objects that incorporate data, structure and function to generate complex system behaviour. Through the application of a system dynamic approach, a robust model (named the Economical Reallocating Water Model (ERWM)) was developed which was used to examine the options of re-allocating water resources that minimize the water cost all over an irrigated agricultural area. The EWRM incorporated a wide range of complexities likely to be encountered in water resource management: surface and ground water sources, water trading between sources, system constraint such as maximum ground water pumping, rates, maximum possible trading volumes and differential water resource prices. Two hypothetical systems have been presented here as an example. The results show that the System Dynamics approach has a significant advantages in estimating and assessing the outcomes of alternative water management strategies through time and space.     

系统动力学在我国可持续发展战略中的研究进展

系统动力学是一种以反馈控制理论为基础、计算机仿真技术为手段，研究复杂社会经济大系统的方法。随着可持续发展战略的提出，该方法得到了广泛应用。综述了近年来系统动力学方法在我国可持续发展战略中的研究进展，着重介绍了该方法在区域资源生态承载力方面的研究，提出了系统动力学研究的方向。     

Water-Quality Monitoring and Biological Integrity Assessment in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: Status, Trends, and Loadings (1988–1994)

a production in the central, south central, and the south segments of the lagoon. In a system as large and complex as the lagoon, N and P limitations are potentially subject to significant spatial and temporal variability. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TN) was higher in the north (1.25 mg/liter) and lower in the south (0.89 mg/liter). The reverse pattern was observed for total P (TP), i.e., lowest in the north (0.03 mg/liter) and highest at the south (0.14 mg/liter) ends of the IRL. This increased P concentration in the SIRL appears to have a significantly large effect on chlorophyll a production compared with the other segments, as indicated by stepwise regression statistics. This relationship can be expressed as follows: South IRL [chlorophyll a] =−8.52 + 162.41 [orthophosphate] + 7.86 [total nitrogen] + 0.38 [turbidity]; R ²= 0.98**.     

Vegetation Composition,Dynamics, and Management of a Bracken–Grassland and Northern–Dry Forest Ecosystem

We investigated differences in vegetation composition and dynamics for two globally rare ecosystems, bracken–grasslands and northern–dry forests of northern Wisconsin. These ecosystems commonly have been viewed as degraded pine barrens. Bracken–grasslands contained a high dominance of exotic species, low native richness, and no obvious prairie species, suggesting logging-era anthropogenic origins. Differences in cover for common plants among ecosystems were examined using Mann-Whitney U tests of equivalence. Cover of all 8 graminoid species, 4 of 5 Ericaceae and Myricaceae species, and 10 of 17 species of forbs were significantly different between ecosystems. Vegetation changes over a 4-year period were examined through detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) repeated measures. DCA analyses of community composition failed to detect significant temporal trends within individual management units, although differences were apparent between ecosystems, regardless of sample year. In addition, no apparent patterns could be detected between years when comparing dominant individual species to management history (prescribed fire). This is contrary to what would be expected for a degraded pine barrens and questions the efficacy of using repeated prescribed fire as a management tool in bracken–grasslands. Methods for conservation and restoration of xeric ecosystems of northern Wisconsin have historically relied heavily on single species (e.g., sharp-tailed grouse) wildlife models, without full consideration of other factors. We suggest that stakeholders involved in these restoration projects examine historic processes and reference conditions prior to formulating management goals. Greater attention to the differentiation and individual management needs of pine barrens, northern–dry forests, and bracken–grasslands is needed.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of hedgerows in three agricultural landscapes of southern Quebec,Canada

Noncrop areas such as hedgerows in agricultural landscapes can perform several ecological and agronomic functions (e.g., habitat, movement corridors, windbreak, etc.), but their dynamics and drivers of changes are often poorly known. We conducted a study in three agricultural landscapes of southern Quebec, Canada, to assess and compare the spatial and temporal (1958–1997) dynamics of three hedgerow networks in relation to geomorphic conditions (marine, glacial, and mixed deposit) and land-use changes. Hedgerow networks were mapped and described in terms of their structure (density, degree of connectivity, and presence of trees or shrubs) and their relationship to other components of the landscape (connection to woodland). Relationships were assessed in time and space using nonparametric correlation, Mantel test, and principal components analysis (PCA). Results show significant differences between hedgerow structure for the three landscapes and distinct temporal and spatial dynamics that can be related to changes in management practices and agricultural policies. On marine deposits, increases in hedgerow density did not always correspond to an increase in their degree of connectivity, suggesting a possible reduction in network quality. On glacial deposits, hedgerow density declined following abandonment of agricultural land, but rather than disappearing, these linear structures were integrated into adjacent brush or forested areas. Our analysis reveals the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of the hedgerow networks and highlights the need to take into account spatial attributes such as connectivity and connection to woodland to evaluate more accurately overall network quality.     

A morphological comparison of narrow,low-gradient streams traversing wetland environments to alluvial streams

Twelve morphological features from research on alluvial streams are compared in four narrow, low-gradient wetland streams located in different geographic regions (Connecticut, Indiana, and Wisconsin, USA). All four reaches differed in morphological characteristics in five of the features compared (consistent bend width, bend cross-sectional shape, riffle width compared to pool width, greatest width directly downstream of riffles, and thalweg location), while three reaches differed in two comparisons (mean radius of curvature to width ratio and axial wavelength to width ratio). The remaining five features compared had at least one reach where different characteristics existed. This indicates the possibility of varying morphology for streams traversing wetland areas further supporting the concept that the unique qualities of wetland environments might also influence the controls on fluvial dynamics and the development of streams. If certain morphological features found in streams traversing wetland areas differ from current fluvial principles, then these varying features should be incorporated into future wetland stream design and creation projects. The results warrant further research on other streams traversing wetlands to determine if streams in these environments contain unique morphology and further investigation of the impact of low-energy fluvial processes on morphological development. Possible explanations for the morphology deviations in the study streams and some suggestions for stream design in wetland areas based upon the results and field observations are also presented.     

Landscape-scale spatial population dynamics in human-impacted stream systems

The movement of individuals among populations can be critical in preventing local and landscape-scale species extinctions in systems exposed to human perturbation. Current understanding of spatial population dynamics in streams is largely limited to the reach scale and is therefore inadequate to address species response to spatially extensive perturbation. Using model simulations, I examined species response to perturbation in a drainage composed of multiple, hierarchically arranged stream-patches connected by in-stream and overland pathways of dispersal. Patch extinction probability, the proportion of initially occupied patches extinct after 25 years, was highly sensitive to the extent of species occupancy and perturbation within the drainage, longitudinal species distribution, perturbation decay rate and the covariance pattern of stochastic effects on colonization and extinction probabilities. Results of these simulations underscore the importance of identifying and preserving source populations and dispersal routes for stream species in human-impacted landscapes. They also highlight the vulnerability of headwater specialist taxa to anthropogenic perturbation, and the strong positive effect on species resilience of habitat rehabilitation when recolonization is possible. Efforts to conserve and manage stream species may be greatly improved by accounting for landscape-scale spatial population dynamics.